This is the only thing that makes sense to me, and I've always agreed with this line of thought. Once more people get into HDTVs and Blu-ray players come down in price, it will replace DVD.

And it is also because those giveaways had less to do with DVD than they did with companies vying for early dominance during the dot com boom, which eventually went bust. Almost none of the companies that were giving away DVDs in those days still exist today. And, for the most part, they were already gone long before DVD achieved full mainstream status, so they really contributed little, if anything, to the formats long term success.

Still missing 800.com and Reel.com?

Did 800.com takeover Reel.com and the Circuit City takeover 800.com afterwards.

I know we're all enthusiast here, so we can tell the difference between HD and standard DVD. But that "average" consumer (that I've come in contact with) either can't, or doesn't feel that the upgrade they see is worth the investment in upgrading.

Now, things can change, the economy turns around and people have more disposable money, the price drops (which is only natural, though 2 years in we havent seen it yet) or any number of things.

People's dvd players didn't play their vhs tapes.

You can throw out all these numbers about adoption rate but its really not the same fight that dvd had.

Who is gonna buy comedies on blu-ray when the dvd will be $10 cheaper?

I definitely knew people that would say to me 'I can't tell the difference'. You switch from an SD source, and then switch to the same thing in HD, it's pretty noticable.

I think the average consumer is used to watching standard content, on standard televisions. Do the SD images look terrible on standard sets? No. They look clear and crisp and they look just fine. Put them on an HD TV, it's a whole new ball game, the SD images that is.

HD on HD pictures, look fantastic, and to an average consumer, or at least a percentage of them, they're seeing a colorful and crisp image again on a TV, just on a bigger screen. Source has a lot to do with it too. If something is meant to have more of a 'film' look, it may not be a huge difference for someone. If it's something that's truly reference quality though, I'm sure somebody can't really argue at how much better the picture looks.

These consumers will all end up in the long run having HDTV's, a lot of people buy them because it's becoming so much more accessible to buy a big screen TV, which now are all mostly HD. When they watch SD content on those things, and then see what HD brings, they'll switch.

I think a major factor will be downloads. We're talking about a point in the future when the mainstream consumers have swapped their SDTVs for an HDTV. That could be 5+ years down the line. I know many people that have zero interest in HDTV, and won't buy a new TV until their old one breaks. And even then, I'm not sure they'll swap their DVD Players for Blu-Ray.

Downloads are going to come a long way in the next 5 years. If these companies can find a simple way to deliver a large selection with good quality at a reasonable price, downloads could be the mainstream choice.

I think there will always be a market for physical media. And BR will probably remain to meet that demand. But I can imagine a scenario where the studios find it's less cost-effective to manufacture a disc compared to distributing a digital download. And we may see them pass on Blu-Ray for low-selling releases and catalog titles.

So I think BR will be around for years. But I'm not sure if it'll reach "dvd status" as we currently know it.

If you read the blu-ray sales discussion thread, you'll find some people that know for a fact that the studios are going to get everyone to stop producing DVD players so there will only be Blu-Ray players. They say that it's not the consumers that will make the choice about this format, it's the companies.

Therefore, consumers have no choice.

You know, I missed out on all that stuff. I was in Japan during most of it so I never heard about it.

The only thing I managed was getting stuff like Terminator 3 and Hulk from dvd4free.com for $3. Every time I did the 3 $1 offers for the DVD I'd get a phone call from my back asking if my card had been stolen. At least they cared enough to check over and over.

This article makes sense to me.

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38151/113/

I'm talking about mainstream consumers that aren't going to swap out their SD equipment until it breaks. The companies can stop producing DVD players whenever they want. But that doesn't mean that everyone's going to run out and switch to Blu-Ray.

My parents still have a VCR that's probably 15 years old. I don't see any reason why their DVD player won't last another 5-10 years. Their TV is only 5 years old, and it should last another 5 years. So I imagine they probably won't get into Blu-Ray for another 5-7 years. Technology moves pretty fast these days and a lot can change in that time. Who knows what choices they'll have then.

Still trying to make oh-so-clever jabs at anyone who disagrees with you, I see.

Am I to assume that your parents actively buy SDVDs? If yes, then the moment BR reaches the mass percentage point the studios would feel comfortable with (according to earlier posted articles 25% market penetration is when prices switch to mass mode), as they did when they transitioned the market from VHS to DVD, and begin restricting SDVD content, I would think that your parents will probably look for a BR player. And feel free to archive my post and requote me later on - it won't take 10 years for the studios to consider such a move.

If your parents aren't actively purchasing SDVD then whether or not they upgrade to BR now, 5, or 10 years from now isn't really an issue. Should be obvious why.

Thus far the BR market has been driven by either early adopters willing to spend for the upgrade from SDVD (meaning indirectly contributing to the slowing SDVD sales) or people who have been willing to experiment with BR as casual consumers (these would be the unreliable PS3 owners).

As far as the first group is concerned it is only going to get bigger and bigger as more and more distribs and hardware manufacturers enter the market (yes, because there has been plenty of lamenting from standbyers that the prices are not yet where they need to be). As far as the second group is concerned I would be shocked if the current bridging between gaming (PS3) and media did not continue to produce more BR consumers.

Those two groups should easily drive the market to the coveted 25% mass point in the next 3-4 years.

Ciao,
Pro-B

I dont think it will ever happen. The dvd movement was significant in that consumers were moving from tapes to disc media... a HUGE difference in quality and storage space associated. But back then it still took forever for even the biggest retailers such as WalMart to come aboard... took awhile for even the movies studios to come aboard as well... that can explain the slower sales at a certain point in time as blu ray. In order to get peoples attention, the movies would have to be priced as low as dvds right now.. but even then you are dealing with a consumer base that for the most part is pretty dumb in regards to new technologies, one in which a large percentage thinks simply buying an HDTV equals having HDTV. I also dont think the jump in quality from dvds to BR's is enough to get people to switch over their collections again, that happens we'll end up seeing new products every few years.

It's not making a jab at anyone since I just repeated what they said. Those same people come here but don't say anything like that, they just keep it to certain threads. I also did it in a completely non-sarcastic way.

If this is what some people believe, what's the problem in showing this point of view in a thread which asks this question, especially since it hasn't been brought up yet as another angle to the question?

If I was doing it with anyone who disagrees with me, wouldn't I be able to find a lot more things to talk about since it's hard to find people who agree 100% on such a speculative issue? Even if they agreed with me 99.9%, they would still disagree with me on something and I'd have to include that.

I don't see the purpose of you bringing drama here when I simply stated what others have said in other threads but for some reason aren't saying it here. I didn't call anyone out.

So what was the jab exactly? I must have missed it when I was stating what people believe in a non-condescending way?

Exactly. Just because they still have a working VCR didn't stop them from getting a DVD player.

I'm guessing there was that point in time when they had a little extra money and decided to jump on board the DVD ship and pick up a player. The same can happen with blu-ray.

Blu Ray will surpass DVD in 2011 or 2012.

There are too many factors pushing Blu Ray for it NOT to reach that level, including the switch to digital transmissions, the death of SDTV (by 2020, but it's already dying now - just try to find SDTV's in B&M stores), the lowering of price points for Blu Ray (which will happen over the next 2 years), and the push for Blu Ray by both the studios AND hardware manufacturers.

As time goes by many of the people who think that DVD is, "Good enough," will see Blu Ray and think less of DVD. DVD will be seen as the, "Cheaper," format - in both price AND quality. Blu Ray is the premium product, and once the price gets down to where the average consumer doesn't see it as overpriced their resistance will fade.

Resistance is futile, after all.

Not a jab? Not condescending? Not sarcastic? Sorry, but you're the one bringing drama. As for what is a condescending, sarcastic jab, this is:
No one has said they know anything for a fact. Everyone is stating opinions and speculations, just as you continue to do. But for some reason, anytime anyone posits the theory that Blu-ray, might, just might eventually replace DVD, you accuse them of claiming to know things as fact, or trying to "predict" the future.

Wow, it's like I went through this same thing with you before. No, people were saying the words "is" and "will" without anything such as "think". That is someone not stating an opinion. In fact, I was told I was wrong because I was using "think" in my opinions.

People were saying it's a fact about what I posted earlier.

Yes, we did go through this before, because you still don't get the difference between opinion and fact. I don't care if someone uses the word "is" or "will", it's still an opinion.

Curiously, I routinely find posts from people on the other side of the debate to categorically state that Blu-ray will never replace DVD, yet you never attack them or their apparent clairvoyance.

That makes sense. I guess you're right.

I went out today to buy Enchanted on blu-ray for my kids. My wife had a $15 gift card that got sent to her after she got her Disney credit card. I was wondering which stores it worked at and she said all.

We drove out and before I went into the store I checked the back of the card and I can only use it at Disney stores.

Lesson learned: Don't listen to my wife.

Then I get home and find out she pulled out a tree I planted. Ugh.

I think DVD's appealed to average consumers because they could get better picture quality over VHS tapes using their existing TV's, and having movies on disc gave them the convenience of never rewinding tapes and being able to watch their movies on the go. DVD's also offered much improved surround sound over VHS and made home theater as popular as it is today.

BD's offer better picture quality and sound over DVD's, but only if you spend the extra cash to get an HDTV and a Hi Def receiver in order to take advantage of them. That's the big difference between DVD's replacing VHS and BD's replacing DVD's. I know a lot of people who think SD looks just fine, and I know other people who have HDTV's and BD's but don't see any improvement over DVD's because their HDTV's are too small or they sit too far from the screen to see a difference.

I think going from VHS tapes to DVD's was a revolution in home entertainment. But I think going from DVD's to BD's is just an evolution... kind of like Betamax, SVHS and Laserdiscs (and none of those replaced VHS as the mainstream medium).

DVD came out in 1997, and the big titles didn't start coming out consistently til 2000, as that is when most studios started remastering all movies in anamorphic. I remember being very frustrated with DVD in the summer of 1999, I kept asking where is the Godfather? Where is Star Wars? Where is Jaws? From 2000-2004, all of those big catalog releases, or 'A' titles started hitting the shelves, starting with Jaws in 2000 and finally ending with Star Wars in 2004.

I believe BluRay is sort of on that same curve, as I think this Christmas will sort of be like the Christmas of 1999, where you started to get the casual consumer buying BluRay players. Then I think 2009 we will start to see the 'A' titles being released and many of the main titles will follow in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and each year that will attract more and more casual movie buyers.

I still dont think BluRay will ever be at DVD's level because I really think many casual DVD buyers who had huge collections will limit their purchases and be more selective when it comes to BluRay. I think DVD will such a leap over VHS that many people just went crazy buying DVD's they never or rarely watched, and I guarantee a majority of DVD consumers will have smaller BluRay collections when it is all said and done.

It will be when my parents have a BD player. I'm guessing that will happen sometime next year (2009).

There are a few things missing in the blu-ray world, the biggest being there are no good players available at a good price point ($199 or less.)

The changing standards do not help either. Oh, get a PS3 people say (since you can do firmware upgrades,) then all I read about is complaints about fan noise. Not to mention Sony changing the configuration on the PS3 monthly.

When there is a stable, sellable unit, people will buy it.

I can handle a $300 player, as long as it's upgradable and the quality is there. But the thing that's keeping my toes out of the Blu-ray pool is $30 discs. Once they get down to $15 - I'll be there.

Get a 40GB PS3....it's upgradable and has demonstrated consistent quality. (You can get one for $300 with the deal at SonyStyle.com). Then, just rent the BDs you want through Blockbuster or NetFlix. Sooner or later the prices will come down.