Very interesting, if lengthy article on the format war. A lot of reasoning that although Blu-Ray won, HDM lost overall and will remain a niche. Good insight from business professors / economists, not random media analysts.

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.co...nomics-quorum/

Some very intelligent, well thought out comments by readers in there, such as:

"Were consumers turned on more by the Blu-Ray name? I know I was. Blu-Ray is cool while HDDVD is stupid sounding and even hard to look at. To make that an economic point, if Blu-Ray is cooler, then the buyers might be more likely to be people who are into the movies"

LOL!

*Edited to reflect Peep's keen perception. No offense to NYT readers intended.

Those aren't NYT readers, they are freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com readers. Big difference. LOLatU.

I was not an early-adopter. I would like to be an early-adopter, but I just don't have the money at this point in my life. However I followed the "war" intently because honestly it was fun to see people fight, and get heated. I also thought it was great theater seeing if Toshiba could pull off an upset. I read the entire article, and I come across less than impressed by these people. All these professors and NO insight whatsoever that anyone of us couldn't see.

The one part I thought was particularly ridiculous was
What a stupid thing to say. If you like a technology, and it is in your price range, and it appeals to you, buy it. If it lasts, great, if not, just make sure you get your money's worth. I don't think HD-DVD buyers "wasted" their money. If they enjoy the product how can it be considered a waste? If this is the way everyone thought no new product would survive.

And here we go again...

For all the lamentations in this article by esteemed professors who should have had a more sober look on what the basic requirement for a successful mass media format is, a unified market with one format enticing the consumer, there is a lot of speculating that frankly borders familiar academic chatter having absolutely zero credibility.

Moving on.

Pro-B

As silly as that comment sounds, I do believe there is some merit to the argument that Blu-Ray has the "better" name. Two syllables and sounds like something completely new vs. five syllables that sounds like an extension of existing technology.

As much as I hate the marketing mindset, I can see how Blu-Ray would seem "sexier" to the non-technical types.

See, I thought that HD DVD would prevail because it sounds like an extension of existing technology and therefore, "less risky."

...or confuse consumers who can't comprehend why it won't play in their existing player. I find a lot of people still don't understand the difference between their SD DVD's and the newer hi-def formats.

Every time I read the replies to something that someone posted online, there are always a few idiots who chime in. Sometimes mostly idiots.

While I'm sure newspapers get some amount of moronic mail in response to printed articles, I doubt that they get nearly as much. And they rarely print any of it.

Those guys from Sloan and Northwestern with their non-existent credibility...

Interesting. I tend to think that even if there had only been one from the begining, it would still have remained a niche market, though. The pricing of discs will almost surely guarantee that.

Read the comments. That pretty much sums up the general public's view:
* They really don't care that much about HDM.
* Upconverted DVD is good enough.
* VOD is a reality.

Here's my take:
* I think the article hit the nail pretty much on the head.
* I don't see Blu-ray dying, but I don't see it being profitable in the near future ... or ever.
* There will always be customers for HDM as evidenced by LD.
* Blu-ray will be far more successful than LD, but nowhere near DVD.

I agree. Still, there are plenty of titles that I look forward to owning, and the best part is not pissing off friends and family by saying they can't borrow something since they can't play it.

What namja said. And it's been said before in ***other*** posts, but a few HDM supporters seem to overlook the lowest consumer denominator when assuming HDM can reach a large audience.

And now, the positive. Blu-ray, over time, could be a new standard as long as movie studios share a single mission of HD becoming the new standard. It could be profitable. This is where Sony's leviathon network of manufacturing, can bring Blu-ray to the point of very affordable prices.

Blu-ray will probably expand its resolution beyond the current 1920 x 1080 within 4 years if successful, and I suspect this will make the home theater experience even more exciting (but you'll have to have a 50" or larger to benefit from it) for the HD consumer. A "regular" Blu-ray will become cheap, while the extreme high end enthusiast, will want the 1440p Blu-ray Ultra titles.

But we can't, as an HD industry, drop the ball now. We have to keep the ball close to our chests, and this means, low prices.

I think you're kidding yourself if you think 1440p will see the light of day inside of 8 years if ever. There has to be a noticible difference and a market demand. Progress for the sake of progress will fail.

The demand is already here, just not in the consumer sector. Just like with most electronics, they are used in the military and medical sectors, as well as industrial applications before being introduced in larger quantities. The demand for higher quality will never end, just like the megapixels in a digital camera.

Don't kid yourself how fast technology is moving along. How fast did 480p then 720p then 1080i then 1080p get to the consumer.

LOL! Professors from some of the best business schools in the world - Kellogg and M.I.T. - don't know what they are talking about. Hell, half of the executives from the CE companies and studios probably went to these schools and learned from these guys...

Please provide any supporting links on this. I find it hard to believe. This appears to just be based on your opinion and not any real facts.

I don't think Blu-Ray will get serious adoption until the studios take a chance with a title exclusive to Blu-Ray. It could be a day and date or a high profile catalog release.

Thinking back, the original Matrix DVD was the "killer app" that sold a lot of players. I remember Gladiator came out on DVD months before the VHS was out. That one got me personally to buy a DVD player. While I doubt studios have the balls to limit a huge day and date hit to Blu-Ray only for 6 months, something like that could make a big difference.

While I don't think their opinions should be entirely dismissed, they should not be 100% accepted just because they are professors at high profile schools.

Aren't many of these professors still in the academic realm because they couldn't make it for real?

Haha, that is possibly the best part of owning hi-def since you know for the most part that your family will not upgrade so you won't have to worry about when is so and so bringing back my stuff.

Yea you tell me that Shane Greenstein couldn't have made it for real:
http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/...o/greenstn.htm

Or Ms. Yin, who only graduated from Stanford, the London School fo Economics and for good measure, Indiana University (Go Big Ten!)
http://scripts.mit.edu/~pyin/docs/Pa...20Yin%20CV.pdf

I don't think that their opinions should be 100% accepted, but to have their opinions dismissed as "zero credibility" is beyond stupid.

My partner thought the same thing.

Couldn't agree more. And if a new format comes out and even calls itself "HD Poop" but offers movies that I WANT in HD, I would purchase a player and the movie (if at a reasonable price).