BlahDVD (UK site) has a UK release date of 3/24 so hopefully a U.S. release will come around the same time.

Why does their goal have to be supplant DVD? They can sell their DVD players and their HD players. The "relatively" cheap prices of their DVD players can be complemented by the premium that HD players will go for. As long as there is backward compatibility, and massive studio support for DVD there will be a market for just DVD players. To think otherwise is foolish.

Its the same thing with cars. Toyota has Toyota and Lexus. Lexus goal is not to convert all Toyota buyers to Lexus. So Lexus can be charge a premium.

I used to think that CE companies goal, at least in the short to mid term was to phase out DVD. I don't see that happening anytime soon, probably 10 years out at least. the CD is still alive and kicking, and the improvements of PQ/AQ of Blu Ray is the only improvment over DVD.

I thought I had already answered that, but I guess I'll try it again. They want to supplant DVD because they perceive it to be a format with no future for growth, but they are banking on HDM having the potential for growth. You can call me foolish all you like :rolleyes:, but if my impressions are correct, then who is the foolish one?

Your analogy with the cars is the exact way I see HDM. It is a premium product and should be seen as such.

I agree. I think BD needs to shift focus and carve out a spot as the premium format. There is room for a "premium" alternative to the "mainstram" format. Say what you will about LD, but it was a "premium" format that did quite well, and lasted a long time against the "mainstream" VHS.

Further fuel for discussion:
On a recent commercail for an upcoming release (can't remember the film) the entire ad is centered on the DVD and Blu-Ray AND On-Demand were mentioned in the closing second of the commercial.

the thing is, even if DVD sales continue to decline by a few percentage points each year, it still has years and years of significant profitability left. as long as HDM at least fills in the declined revenue, the studios ought to be very happy. i'm sure they'd be ecstatic if HDM did completely supplant DVD, but realistically, they've got to merely be hoping for HDM to keep the overall home video industry (DVD + HDM) growing, rather than declining.

Earlier he noted a time frame of approximately five years of DVD viability. I tend to agree. Five years from now I also see HD media being as the core business for many distribs and DVD being slowly phased out.

Pro-B

No way, man -- Frank Simonis already set a date for when DVD would be completely supplanted by Blu-ray. It took some digging on highdefdigest, but here's the link:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=4625

So, what this guy says is the gospel?

Sorry, but the consumer and the studios will have final say on when dvd is phased out not the Blu-ray Disc Association's European chairman or whatever the hell this guy is.

I'm not quite sure what your point is in posting that link. If it is to flamebait, I'm not biting. If it is to try to prove my theory wrong by association, it seems like a useless effort.

I am obviously not an all-knowing, all-powerful industry insider. But I can make what I believe to be reasonable speculations, based on what I see, just as you can. And from what I see, it seems that DVD sales revenue will be declining by much more than a few percentage points within five years. And when/if that happens, studios, CEs, and retailers will need something to replace it. Right now, Blu-ray seems to be that something.

i tend to think that's an overly optimistic outlook, at best. but we're all just speculating, aren't we?

Of course we are. And it's supposed to be fun. I don't see the point in some people (not you) getting huffy and calling other peoples' speculations foolish, or pronouncing that THEIR speculations are unequivocally correct.

Aside from the flamebaiting above, yes, by default any statement that addressed a five-year time frame is a speculation. Yet, given some recent announcements about Blu-Ray growth I am much more comfortable with an upbeat observation in the realms of what RoboDad has noted than I am with any bleak or niche speculations thrown around in this forum. Especially given the fact that all of the major distribs are yet to unite behind one format.

Via DVDTIMES:
http://www.dvdtimes.co.uk/content.php?contentid=67038

Pro-B

Robo -- that wasn't my intent, I assure you. I consider you to be one of the good guys and I appreciate the things that you've had to say here.

The three-year figure, which this fellow gave nearly a full year ago, has just always struck me as completely laughable. If Blu-ray were to eventually capture more of the optical disc market than DVD, I would be bowled over with surprise. This guy isn't talking about just selling more Blu-ray discs, though -- he's talking about replacing the DVD format in just two more years! How do they intend to do that? Do they have some sort of disc exchange strategy in mind, or do they expect consumers to actually pay to replace all of their DVDs and DVD players? My own collection sits at close to 1000 titles. How long will it be until Blu-ray even offers 1000 titles, let alone the 1000 in my collection?

Anyway, I'm really sorry if I riled you -- I didn't mean to.

No worries. It's just getting hard to separate the genuine from the bitter these days.

But you are right. Even if that had been their goal at that point, stating it in public was profoundly stupid. There is no way that would have been achievable in that time frame, even if Blu-ray had been the only HDM format ever made. I think it will take time, and I don't think DVD will be completely replaced in five years. But I DO believe that it will be replaced, and that Blu-ray will be selling more product by the end of 2012 than DVD will be, and maybe even by the end of 2011.

Of course, I could be wrong, and the BDA could completely screw things up between now and then, and lose the whole enchilada. But that doesn't seem likely right now.

And, FWIW, I was one of the few who was predicting DVD's explosive growth back in the late 90's. I believed that it would replace VHS in five years, and I was told by many people I was nuts, and that it would always be a niche format, a replacement for LD, not VHS. I'm just sayin'... ;)

It's primarily perception as well. Wouldn't you want to hook potential consumers to jump on board Blu-Ray asap? Is it was they are selling.

i assume you are referring to a post other than mine, because there was no "flamebaiting" intended in my words. i was simply stating my difference of opinion and noting that mine is just as much speculation as anyone else's.

DVD has been a hugely successful home video format, far exceeding most people's original expectations. consumer spending on HDM (Blu-ray + HD DVD) in 2007 was not on par with that of DVD at the same point in its lifecycle, so if it's going to supplant DVD completely in even five years, it will have to experience record breaking growth. i'm not saying it's impossible by any means, but surely expecting record-breaking performance would be considered more optimistic than realistic.

Cool, man.

You know, as fabulous as DVD has been, I'm STILL waiting for several titles which have only ever been available on VHS. So I guess -- for me, anyway -- DVD still hasn't even fully replaced VHS!

Yikes. That really hurt to type that.:)

No, not at all, it was not your post.

Pro-B

Pro-B, I really wasn't trying to bait you (or anyone else, for that matter) either. My honest-to-goodness point for posting that link was just what I said to Robo a few posts up: I think the three-year statement was ridiculous.

I'm sorry for the misunderstanding -- I should have been more clear.

But there was a key difference between the HDM sales in 2007 and DVD sales at that point. DVD was one new format that was trying to supplant one aging format (because, realistically, LD was never a major factor in the thinking of either the studios, CEs, or consumers in general, and DivX was, well, DivX ;)). Last year, however, there were two new formats battling for the right to be the one format that would supplant one aging format. And, as much as some people want to dismiss that as irrelevant, it wasn't. I know far too many people who have cited the format war as a significant reason for them not looking more seriously at HDM.

So, last year is not a good year to use as a comparison. But, the next 18 moths could be a better basis for comparison, assuming that we get some kind of announcement from Universal and/or Paramount before fall (which I think is pretty likely).

i agree that this year will give a much clearer indication of what kind of growth we might expect with HDM. i don't dismiss the dueling hi-def format factor as irrelevant, but i do think there are many other factors that may also hinder the growth of HDM, even with only one format on the market. consumer disinterest in hi-def content is a major one, but i do believe that can be overcome with the right kind of marketing. i just see a longer road ahead, as HDM does not currently have the same coolness/convenience advantage that DVD had going for it in the late 90s. of course, i'm just speculating, but the speculating is fun, as you've already noted! :)

[QUOTE=RoboDad]I know far too many people who have cited the format war as a significant reason for them not looking more seriously at HDM.QUOTE]

I work in inventory pt at my local Borders and I talk to customers every single day who tell me this, and even more who are confused by the two competing formats. The format war and the confusion have slowed this from moving past the early adapter stage the way HD TV has, no doubt.

It is all good, no worries.

Pro-B

How many, exactly?