All signs (so far, CES cancellation) point to no but I simply can't see Microsoft or Toshiba giving up on HD DVD that easily. There has to be a move they can make. What do you guys think? Is HD DVD really dead?

No. There is really nothing they can do. I said from day one that Warner going exclusive to either side was the end of the war and it is. They are the studio with the biggest catalog and the most influence. HD DVD is done.

I see them cutting hardware even more as that is really all they can do. Expect Universal and Paramount to bail as soon as they can.

It's over.

Dead as a door nail.

It's near end game, though. Within 2 years, Toshiba will give up, and by then I'd think Paramount and Universal would've at least gone neutral if not all the way blue.

OT: Do you think once HD-DVD is officially dead, will Sony try and go after the HD-DVD title (logos, etc)? Or will they stick with "Blu Ray"?

No need to worry about HD DVD as a name. They have established Blu-ray well enough.

Definitely stick with Blu-ray.

Would be interesting if MS offers WB, say, a shitload of cash and offers to pay for the manufacturing plants--hey, maybe Sony did this. Then WB makes another pressa announcement. At this point, who knows. It's interesting to watch it, though.

Come on, Disney, take that M$ money and make it fun again.

They may want to consider dropping the "Disc" from the name, since nobody bothers to say it.

It's called "Blu Ray Hi Def" now.

Only thing MS can do is pay money for Disney and LGF to go HD DVD only. It won't happen.

LGF isn't worth paying to go exclusive. They're a good company, but their titles are not what's going to draw a mass audience to a format.

Microsoft has always said the future of HD movies was downloads. They really don't care about HD-Dvd. They wanted the format war to kill both of them so they could push VOD. Now that it's over, I doubt they'll do anything except push downloads. And Disney is completely pro-Bluray and would never switch. They've been one of the major Bluray advertisers. Game over man.

HD-DVD porn free with players?

I agree.

Although someone opined that MS offering money to Disney might get things going back the other way, I wouldn't hold by breath. With Steve Jobs being Disney's single largest stockholder and part of Disney's board of directors, not even MS has enough money to swing that deal.

I doubt Toshiba is just going to roll over. As I see it, their only real options are to 1) continue to slash prices on players and 2) push their studio partners to substantially cut prices on discs in order to entice consumers.

However, it's probably too little, too late.

I think if they had aimed for lower media prices than BR, but still kept them higher than DVD, they would have made significant inroads at the consumer level and made things more difficult for BR. HD-DVD's really significant advantage was that discs were easier and less expensive to produce than BR. They failed to take advantage of this. Probably because they couldn't... with below cost retail prices on players (there's no way $100 HD-DVD players are anything but below cost) and only one significant HD-DVD player manufacturer (Toshiba), their only real money had to come from royalties on media sales, so media prices couldn't go lower.

I've always held the opinion that the cost of media (content) is more important than the cost of the hardware that plays the content. Although a different media, Apple's iPod is a perfect example of this. Content (music) is relatively cheap (or even no cost)... the player is expensive.. even moreso than a lot of competitor players.

A lesson too late to do Toshiba any good, I think.

I'm sure they have some kind of contingency plan, but I doubt it will change the inevitable outcome. Even the supposed "HD DVD drive in every 360" rumor, which has been consistently denied by Microsoft, would be a pointless gesture, I think.

Well, this is like blaming Sony for something Paramount decided to do on their own. Toshiba never had control of the movie studios, and they went where the money was. If anything, it was Microsoft who didn't step up to the plate more aggressively when it came to PC/HD DVD integration and video game console integration.

Since the 360 launch, we've seen Elite, premium HDMI, and Falcon. Those re-issues of the 360 should have focused on internal HD-DVD, with an ad campaign to counter PS3/BD. Oh well, as I posted in another thread, I'm glad to have an HD-DVD player that uses the same inputs on my AV Receiver as my game console, but still...

Rumor has it that Bill Gates was/is going to announce a new variation on the XBox 360 with a built in hd-dvd player at the CES. The MS press conference will be interesting.

Sorry! Blue Wins! The Empire has won!

If Bill Gates really wanted to, he could change this outcome very easily.
Oh well, Sony and MS are both pretty evil and customer hostile IMO,

maybe they can get exclusive rights to Brentwood or Goodtimes, and flood the HD market in stores like Big lots, and Dollar General.

No. I think the war is over, plain and simple. This is the media equivalent of dropping the A-bomb. There is no recovery, only acceptance of defeat. I'm done with my HD buying until BR players drop in price.