I have the same opinion as you do. If either Blu-ray/HD DVD "wins", I don't think they will get anymore then 10% of the market before VOD comes around. As long as studios keep making HDM movies on discs I will continue to buy them, regardless of what format. Zodiac was the last new release on HD DVD I purchased (besides King of California tomorrow based on Adam's glowing review), and it only looks bleaker for me on HD DVD and Blu-ray. I have 8 movies (4 being maybes) until the end of March.

The "war" has caused both sides to give awesome pricing on software and hardware, and without it, I believe neither format would ever stand a chance again DVD. I understand there are people on the fence deciding, but I doubt they would gladly plunk down $600 on a Blu-ray player even if it was the only choice. Now you can get both Blu-ray and HD DVD for way less, and if either format goes, you'll still have a player that will continue to work. We would have never seen 50GB Blu-ray discs this early, we would not have 5 free by mail, we would not have free Blu-ray player with purchase of TV, nothing. I'm all for a Dual Format future.

It's been confirmed. I saw the updated form a little while ago. It's 2/28 and postmark by 3/31. Note this was the original form, not the version that contained TNMT which I never thought was legit (but certainly could have been).

IIRC, The TMNT version was for Sears only.

Probably because they're spending their energy on their releases, and releasing the best quality HDM out there... (IMO)

HD DVD got a 6k boost while Blu-ray dropped 5k. How many were sold vs. given away?

I think we will see a bigger boost in 2 weeks (on HD DVD) once the new pricing hits the circulars, right now you would have to know about the price drop or go to the section where HD DVD is sold (and thats only if the store updated its prices, many stores still post the original pricing, especially on the
open boxes).

Now, will Blu-ray SA drop in price and/or will the free Blu-ray player with TV purchase continue (after the superbowl)? The free Blu-ray player is a great way for Sharp, Sony, Panasonic to sell there own TVs when millions are buying them for the Superbowl, but will it continue after? I see a TON of Sharp players on Craigslist right now (for $489 with BB Receipt, wow, what a deal!)

A3 is the cheapest and the worst out of the available 3-5 units. I would get them in this order, if price is not important...

XA2
A35
A30
A20
A3/A2

Spend $50 and get the A30...its a better deal overall.

Comparing a BD player to the A3 is not a valid comparison. IIRC the A3 cannot even do 1080p. Comparing the prices is also not valid IMO since it's obvious the prices of the A3 would not be what they are without the current clearance stragegy.

i'd say the A35 is the best value (near-XA2 performance and features at a fraction of the cost) and the XA2 is the best overall player.

by most accounts the BD-30 is a great player. however, the PS3 is still the best choice if you care about being future-proofed for profile 2.0.

The A30 doesn't even do 1080p properly, just like the A20 I am stuck with. Multiple threads on AVS about this. IMO the XA2 is the only viable HD DVD player to own for 1080p right now.

Also, in the Chicago are, there are a total of 6 Sharp Blu-Ray players on CL. Not exactly a ton around here. Maybe there's a crazy amount elsewhere.

How many were there BEFORE they were free with Sharp TVs?

In LA I have counted about 12-15 in the past week. I know, Ive e-mailed every one of them and offered $200. Someone eventually is bound to take it

If BD continues bundling their players, then they should get a huge boost this week since the Super Bowl will help increase HDTV sales. Once that's over, I would lower the price of the 1.0 units since there's nothing upcoming that will draw a massive amount of consumers to buy a HDTV.

Apparently we have a different idea about what a "ton" is.

When someone says that I would expect to see at least 50 at any given time.

that 1080p60 issue is definitely overblown and it is present only on the 1080p60 setting. all of those players do 1080p24 correctly, which, in my opinion, is much more important.

Seeing as I have a 1080p60 display, and I bought the A20 specifically for 1080p last April, it is a big deal to me. When I change between the two I do see a difference on some material, which is pretty annoying. I could have just stuck with my A1, as I now have to run my A20 in 1080i mode. Here I thought I would support the format by upgrading my player months after buying an A1, but given the results, I will not be buying another Toshiba player even if my A1 and A20 die. I'll just get a combo if I still have HD DVD discs at that point.

Also, I'd be willing to wager there are more 60 Hz 1080p displays out there right now than 24 Hz.

This is why I was hoping the Onkyo player would not be a Toshiba rebadge. I've been a long time customer of Toshiba products, but I have not been thrilled with their HD DVD hardware quality. If Onkyo had built their own 1080p HD DVD player from scratch, I would have bought it on day one.

That is the whole reason I own a Sharp BD player. You spend at least $1000 on a TV they give you the thing free. Obviously they are pushing hard to get those players in people's homes.

No individual studio will have 75% of the HD market. The Blu-ray format as a whole may, but that doesn't mean that a studio like Lionsgate or Disney will be reaping huge rewards from that anytime soon.

Also, try to put that 75% into perspective. 75% of the HD market will amount to how much real income for a studio? High Def Media still accounts for barely 1-2% of DVD sales. If a studio is offered a couple hundred million dollars in payout (as Paramount, Warner, and allegedly Fox were), that's vastly more money than they'd make otherwise, no matter which side they were on. Why wouldn't they take it? It would be fiscally irresponsible to reject such an offer.

Hell, I'll take some money too if Sony wants me to switch sides

For the short term...yes. But studios are hoping that HDM will replace DVD and become a new revenue stream in the long term. Whether that will happen...none of us know (although many of sure like to speculate on forums).

The up front money is a huge factor, but if they truly want HDM to succeed, the long term benefits have to be taken into account. I would think that potential money is worth more than a few hundred million over time. Just my opinion though...

I think it was quite clear I meant the BDA when I said WB would give "them" 75% of the market.

I continue to wonder why you have such a bleak outlook on HDM. Why? It seems like you are ready to pounce and beat down any positive thoughts on what it would be like if all studios released on BD. Do you want the war to keep dragging on?

You're arguing about the lack of money they're making NOW. I'm guessing the studios are looking at what potential money they can make on HDM for the future. 2 competing formats haven't done much for anyone so far. Why don't we see how 1 dominant format does? If studios keep switching sides due to payouts or whatever else, then no one is going to ever make money on HDM. It's going to scare off whatever potential customers it may have had.

I read Mr. Cinema's comments to mean that Blu-ray will have 75% of the HDM market (including Warner) starting in June, not that Warner had 75% of the market.

I don't know IMHO, if studios really wanted HDM as a whole to succeed, they would be releasing titles on both formats...thus making it freely available to anyone who wanted to buy their wares. What does a studio care if it is bought on HD DVD or Blu Ray? A sale is a sale, and by all accounts, studio costs on HD DVDs are smaller on Blu Ray. In that case, the price and features of the hardware would force one side to capitulate, not so much the studio exclusivity - which is exactly what happened to Beta.

The problem is of course that Sony is both a hardware and a studio..so the Sony bigwigs tells the Sony studio to sell only on Blu Ray..and there you go..studio exclusiviity. Then that spills down to other studios, who are given financial incentives that far outstrip their meager returns on any actual software sale.

I've said all along that the studios would make the best business decision - and that is to take "payoffs, incentives," from anybody willing to give them. Paramount got offered a nice check for one year of HD DVD exclusivity - I don't blame them..so did probably Warner and Fox.

They can freely take these incentives because the studios probably realize there isn't a lot more money in selling HDM over DVD in the long term. Yeah sure DVD sales growth is down but that doesn't say a lot to me.

The studio bean counters figure that there are only so many people out there that are going to (1) rebuy a catalog title they already have (2) buy a catalog title with a MSRP $20 more expensive than its standard counterpart..so unless they are going to drop DVD and force people to buy HDM, they are pretty much free to take payouts, charge HT enthusiasts a premium over standard DVD and such.

Exactly. If Paramount was making 25M a year publishing on both formats, and HD DVD offered them even the same amout to go neutral, they would be irresponsible not to accept the offer.

Also, I think the studios have mixed goals with HDM. I think ideally they want some type of VOD model where they can charge for each viewing of the movie. Without media to create, their development costs would be lessened as well.

I am sure they want HDM to catch on, but if you dangled a successful VOD/PPV system in their faces, they would lunge at that opportunity.

That would not work today. Today there is a deep-seated mindset in the collective consciousness of the public that two formats of apparently equal strengths and weakness should not and cannot coexist, and that one will be rendered obsolete at some point. That mindset is keeping many, many people from jumping in right now. In fact, industry analysts have said numerous times that it is so bad now that it is even causing more than a few people to question and curtail their SD DVD spending.

In order to achieve your scenario, you'd have to find a way to convince all of the fence-sitters that it's OK for them to risk backing the wrong format. What incentive is there for them to do that? They aren't early adopters like us.

Amen! Send me a PS3 Sony, and I'll sell all my HDs and go all Blu.

I think we all know why: He's an HD-DVD zealot but refuses to come out instead he makes these kinds of statements. That's why he didn't do a commentary on HighDefDigest about the Warner move like he did with the Paramount move. All these little jibs and jabs can indicate nothing else. I don't think I've ever heard him say anything positive about BD, which screams of bias. Sorry Josh but someone had to say it. And don't tell me about your so called neutrality because you own a BD and HD player because honestly that doesn't mean anything.