And I'm trying to make it quite clear to you that the BDA is comprised of a number of smaller entities, and that "the BDA" having 75% of the High Definition market does not necessarily mean that any of those individual studios are going to reap huge rewards.

My outlook isn't bleak. It's realistic.

I like both formats. Is that so hard to understand? They are both good and worthy products. I see no reason why one format should have to roll over and die for the benefit of the other. I simply do not believe this myth that the evil format war is the only thing preventing one format from achieving explosive growth. That's fantasy.

High Definition is a niche product for the home theater consumer. It does not hold much of any interest at all for the general DVD audience, who don't understand the benefit of it and couldn't give a crap whether one format "wins" over the other.

There is nothing wrong with being a niche product. The sooner both formats can come to terms with that and start aligning their business focuses to serve their real audience, the better off we'll all be. Right now, both formats are driving themselves into bankruptcy to win the bragging rights of "winning" over the other, a victory that will only gain them a tiny sliver of the home video marketplace much smaller than the amount of money they're expending on it.

Basically what I would have said. Both formats should be offered with the focus on their own capabilities and features, versus fighting each other over vaporous territory.

Agreed.

Personally...IMO...the idea that Blu-ray or whatever format is the Last Man Standing is going to supplant DVD as the mainstream format is ridiculous. DVD is here to stay a lot longer. I think you'd be lucky to see the mainstream using Blu-ray even in 10 years.

Many lower income and middle income folks still have no HD. We're still in the early stages of HD penetration. If only 10-11% of U.S. households even bother with HD OTA, satellite, or cable, how likely is it they start buying even one format of HD discs? Not likely. Hell, a lot of people think DVD is HD.

In your opinion, and total speculation, just like people thinking it will grow if the "war" was to end. I know for a fact that many, many, people are not jumping in until it's over due to the exclusive side of things. And these are not "niche" home theater folks. Simply people who wouldn't mind jumping into either side for the best quality on new releases.

In fact I can't imagine not thinking that things will improve when the future becomes more clear. Of course it's having a huge impact. I also would like to know just how the defintion of a niche market. IMO the sales wouldn't have to surpass SD to not be a niche market. I have a feeling that to some, anything other than being #1 maks it niche, and that's simply not the defintion of niche.

I don't think there's any question that things will improve, but will it improve to the tune of tens of millions of players being sold anytime soon? I don't think it will, but I don't care. If Blu-ray winds up being the new Laserdisc and I can get an incredibly wide assortment of titles -- even if I have to pay a premium -- that's fine with me.

I think the format war is more of an excuse not to buy in rather than an actual reason. That uncertainty [b]is[b/] a legitimate reason, of course, but even if HD DVD were to completely disappear today, I doubt people would suddenly start flooding into stores. I don't think there's much widespread interest in HDM at all, and I'd bet a lot of people just feel more comfortable saying "I'm waiting until there's a victor" than "I really don't care".

Main Entry:
niche
Pronunciation:
\ˈnich also ˈnēsh or ˈnish\
Function:
noun
Etymology:
French, from Middle French, from nicher to nest, from Vulgar Latin *nidicare, from Latin nidus nest — more at nest
Date:
1611

1 a: a recess in a wall especially for a statue b: something that resembles a niche2 a: a place, employment, status, or activity for which a person or thing is best fitted <finally found her niche> b: a habitat supplying the factors necessary for the existence of an organism or species c: the ecological role of an organism in a community especially in regard to food consumption d: a specialized market


I would think that something not widely adopted would classify as "a specialized market." But, that's semantics for you.

But what is widely adopted? I niche anything less than the market leader?

IMO, given the availability of both formats in 2007, both were already "widely adopted". It's not like you had only a few stores to choose from to get players or software. Almost every store selling electronics and software had both formats available. All that leaves is how much they have to sell in the future to not be considered niche.

You know this for a fact, do you? Exactly how many are these "many, many people" that are just waiting to jump in? Please do tell exactly how many people you have directly spoken to that have indicated this to you, that you know it for a fact? I want to hear a real number.

Purged the bickering in the last few posts.

Just because it can be sold doesn't equal wide adoption. I can buy wireless routers based on the draft N standard at almost any store selling electronics, but that doesn't mean it is anything but a niche. Stores sell lots of stuff - most anything that makes enough money for them.

I think vipper's definition of niche is about right: a specialized market.

Widely adopted by the consumer, not the stores. We've all seen how pathetic HDM's numbers are compared to the market leader, DVD, so to me that indicates it's far from being widely adopted. Right now HDM is a niche by those standards, but that may change over time; however, some people, myself included, do not see that happening.

Given the value of every square foot of floor space, I doubt stores would give as much space to HDM as they do if they didn't feel it was widely adopted. IMO high defintion music is an example of something that isn't actually widely adopted, and will likely always remain niche.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Its called marketing dollars. BDA and HD DVD have been pumping marketing dollars into the retail chains to get that space. And I really wouldn't consider 2 racks of Blu Rays and 1 rack of HD DVDs (in my local Best Buy) as a lot of retail space. In Circuit City, the racks are even smaller..and in Target most of the HDM is under lock and key space, which is miniscule.

That's odd....what Targets do you shop at? Are they in the city?

I've been to 8 different Targets over the past 6 months in the west 'burbs, and I've never seem HDM locked up.

Ditto. I really doubt that part since I've never seen movies locked up at Targets, only games. And that's true even in "the city" not just in the burbs.

All of the ones I have been to even had the BD and HD DVD versions of new releases on the end caps with the SD versions.

Yea, the Target on Elston. It was a few months ago at this point as I don't get there very often.

Gotcha. I realize they have to lock up discs that cost a lot and can be easily concealed, but IMO locking stuff up almost kills the impulse buy factor.

I'm actually headed up to Costco this weekend and will check out Target as they are close to see if things have changed. My "observation" was based on pre holidays, so things may have changed there recently.

OK, I have a question for those who keep insisting that long-term coexistence is not only possible (which I think is a patently foolish idea), but also desirable.

In this Utopian, hippy-dippy, peace-and-love, everyone-just-gets-along, purple world you are yearning for, where all players are dual format, and every title is released on both formats, just how, exactly, does it benefit me as a consumer to see both red and blue cases on store shelves? What would the end point be to that scenario? Because I gotta tell you, I just don't see it (the point, that is).

Those B1G1 sales that we got used to seeing were a nice benefit from the "war" for consumer presence.

Fantastic post.

You do realize, I hope, that his post is only opinion, purely based on conjecture and speculation, rather than incontrovertible fact. It isn't exactly "fantastic" in my view.

I do. Most people can seperate opinion from fact, but there are very vocal followers of both sides that see their opinions, and opinions that support their opinions as irrefutable facts, while completely de-valuing opinions that don't match their views as "crap" or some other such derogatory term.

ALL of our opinions are based on conjecture, and speculation. None of us are execs for these companies.

Great post Qui Gon. We all think we know what is going to happen or would like to happen but in reality we are just puppets or mindless sheep to the movie studios and CE companies.

this is probably the best summary of every format war-related message board i've ever read.