ahhhh!!! tease tease tease

Do tell! At least you can get it out there and know if you were right or wrong when it all shakes out.

Oh don't be all secretive. We all know that it's going to be that Warner, in an odd turn of events, has made a deal with Ross Rojek to release in the US that odd Chinese HD format that's based on HD DVD, but is incompatible with HD DVD players, and only release HD titles on that format through Another Universe.

While I don't own the DVD set, I give a full list of all the extras on the HD DVD set here: http://www.dvdtalk.com/reviews/read.php?ID=28274

My thought is, if you make it through all the extras on the set, as I did, you'll never want to watch anything related to The Matrix ever again.

Ha, that is hilarious. May I ask as to why you feel that way?

Because I watched that set in its entirety over the course of three days or so, and I got completely burnt out on The Matrix. I haven't watched any of the films or anything from the discs since May.

How unhappy? I'm guessing this news is referring to not just a few of the poor selling exclusives (Perfect Storm, Casablanca), but also the big titles (Batman Begins, V for Vendetta, Matrix Trilogy) since you posted in this thread. Will those who don't own a HD DVD player be really unhappy with this unconfirmed news you have?

Truthfully, I'm not trying to be secretive or trying to make people think I know something no one else does. I really dislike all the rumormongering that goes on by some of the format fanatics on both sides, and I just don't want to play that game. If I had more confidence in that part of the info I have, I'd post it.

The part that I felt confident enough to post is to expect an announcement from Warner at CES. Frankly, I think even that is a pretty big deal even though it has been pretty well established that Warner was CONSIDERING a change in policy and was/is looking at Q4 numbers. I am surprised Warner would have something to say so soon. I would have expected a month or two into the new year, if they did anything at all.

If this is indeed true and there will be an announcement at CES, then I would speculate the decision has already been made. Something this far reaching in a corporation the size of Time Warner is not decided upon at the last minute.

The part that I do not have confidence in is what the announcement will be. I will offer this speculation, though....

1) Warner let their membership in the BDA lapse a couple of months ago and have still not renewed. When this was reported, it was passed of by most Blu-ray supporters as unimportant. I was told this was not a trivial thing.

2) Warner, or sources at Warner, were reported to have decided to look at Q4 numbers for both formats before making a decision. With the technical disadvantages of Blu-ray being well known (high replication costs, less compatibility of hardware with audio and final profile, continuing production problems with BD50, more difficult to author with advanced interactivity, plus, Warner is said to be not impressed with the "PS3 effect" regarding movie sales), Blu-ray was in the position to have to really do something to impress Warner in Q4. That has not happened.

3) Despite statements earlier this year regarding releasing many or most of the HD DVD exclusive titles on Blu-ray by the end of this year, a grand total of one formerly exclusive title, Terminator 3, has actually been released on Blu-ray, and that with a double encode to get PiP. Not even an announcement for any of the other high profile titles that have been on HD DVD going back a year and a half.

4) Warner (or some at Warner) just doesn't like Sony. (okay, that is gossip, but it comes from a good source).

When I add all this up and put it with a few hints that I won't repeat, I will say that I will be much more surprised if Warner drops HD DVD than Blu-ray. I'm not saying that is what will happen, only what will surprise me more.

Didn't Polar Express get released this fall on Blu-ray? That makes two.

Um, blu-ray discs still completely outsold HD-DVD 2 to 1, even with cheap ass HD-DVD players flooding the market. Business Week is placing money on WB going blu-ray exclusive.

This seems like a lot of conjecture and innuendo without any real hard evidence.

Sorry but you just don't convince- and the incredible BD to HD-DVD sales ratio at this point says plenty to Warner trust me. Warner's position has always been "let the consumer decide"- how could they say that consumers have chosen HD-DVD given this obvious trend?

I would think this as well would cause them to take a little notice.

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/12161.cfm

Update: Latest "Pirates" film helps Blu-ray to 3:1 disc sales victory for week
14 December 2007

Thanks to the previously reported record breaking sales of 'Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End,' Blu-ray sales topped HD DVD by a hefty 3:1 margin for the week ended December 9th.

According to Nielson, but not confirmed by Disney, the latest "Pirates" film sold 160,000 units in its first week setting a new Blu-ray record. The movie even sold 3 times as many units as Sony's Blu-ray title "Superbad" did and almost 8 times as many as the top selling HD DVD title, the ever popular "Planet Earth" box set, for the week.

The strong showing helped Blu-ray take a 76% share of disc sales for the week, a decisive number that has not been seen in some time. The week ending December 16th should be more interesting however. "Bourne Ultimatum" sales are said to be very high for HD DVD and the long awaited dual-format release of all the Harry Potter films should heat up the competition some.

Not trying to convince anyone of anything. I really don't care what you or anyone else believes or does not believe. I thought I made that clear.

You keep clinging to incomplete sales stats. Warner sells discs in both formats. No one knows better than them what is really selling, and how to interpret the raw data. Anyone that thinks a 2:1 sales advantage for Blu-ray at this stage of the game with as many Blu-ray players out there as there is is a positive for Blu-ray is just naive. Don't forget what happened at the last studio that was format neutral for a full year.

You would think that. Of course, if you were taking a rather broader view instead of focusing on only the parts of the picture you think are important, you would realize that Warner is more concerned with what will happen next year, and the year after that. Disney having a good week carries no more weight in Warner's boardroom than Paramount having a good week with Transformers.

Yep - 2:1 sales (or even 3:1) don't really make a huge difference when the install base of players is more like 5:1 or 6:1 (or more), plus the added production costs of a bluray disc.

I would not be a bit surprised if a studio makes more profit from 1 HDDVD sale than 2 BluRay disc sales. (if the discs are priced similarly)

Yep, and there's more. Warner, and actually every other studio, is fully aware that Best Buy and Target are bought off by BDA. This is another reason that Videoscan sales stats mean very little. Walmart and a sizable percentage of mail order outlets are not reported to Videoscan. Internet sellers generally buy what their customers order, unlike a company like Best Buy which buys what corporate dictates they buy. Best Buy and Target skew toward Blu-ray by policy. There are simply more BD on their shelves than HD DVD. Obviously the sales numbers they report will skew toward Blu-ray. What doesn't get reported are the thousands of people that walk into Best Buy looking for the HD DVD versions of, for instance, the Kubrick titles, and then walk out when they don't find them. Only the people that walk in looking for the BD versions get counted. Warner, on the other hand, know exactly how many of each format they sold, and what the demand is for each from ALL the outlets selling the discs.

This is not anecdotal. A friend of mine runs a medium sized Internet company. He tells me their sales of HD DVD and Blu-ray are virtually even, and have been for a while. November was their best month so far for HDM and there were fewer than four percentage points between the two formats' sales. They are not an anomaly. This is what is really happening.

you have made it very clear with your posts in this thread that you are not trying to convince anyone of anything. well done.

the last paragraph in particular is hilarious. it's pure gold, fanboy gold. let us get this right: neilsen provides an incomplete picture, but your "friend" with an internet company has his finger on the pulse? is that it?! priceless.

Perfect. Or rather, perfectly worthless post. You have nothing to say so you attack posts that don't support your view of the world. If you have something to contribute to the discussion, then please do so. Otherwise, keep your ignorance to yourself.

lmao, let's have an answer to why you consider your "friend" representative of the market at large but don't put much stock in neilsen's (around 50% of the market) tracking data? is it simply a case of not wanting to see things you don't like?

Robert, you had me going till your last paragraph about Best Buy being "bought off". Trust me, if Best Buy was bought off by the BDA, you wouldn't see a single hd-dvd at any one of their stores. Plus the BDA would be trumpeting this as a coup as well. Thanks for the laugh.

i think his point is that the nielsen numbers don't necessarily give the same complete picture that warner or any other studio gets from full retail reports, so we who are looking from the outside in perhaps should not put so much emphasis on them. that being said, i personally think (and most of the industry tends to agree, i believe) that the nielsen's give a fairly accurate picture of the market, considering the sample size it represents.

agreed. i think we can say from all of the anecdotal evidence threads at other forums that every best buy is different. i don't see any kind of uniform corporate policy for HDM even among my various local best buys.

Where did I say I didn't like something? Where do I indicate I have a format preference either way? Your response is typical of Blu-ray fanatics. When there is information that might challenge the perceived supremacy of your format, it must be discredited. Try being an observer instead of a zealot. Makes things more interesting.

Why do you say that? Why do you think it has to be all or none? Best Buy, or any other retailer, can have a particular marketing approach that is influenced by their vendors. If Sony/BDA has been able to convince the executives at Best Buy, Target, and whatever, that they are better served by giving more shelf space to Blu-ray, how does that mean these companies have to completely ignore a competing product?

Despite the fact that the actual number of titles released on both formats is roughly equal, Best Buy, Target, and to some extent Circuit City, and perhaps others, are allocating at least a 60/40 shelf space advantage to Blu-ray. If they were truly interested in "letting the consumer decide" they would merchandise both formats equally, which means if they carry a title from a format neutral studio in one format, they carry in the other as well. Obviously this isn't happening.

BTW, that comment I made about these retailers being in the pocket of the BDA didn't come from me. It came from a conversation with a middle level person in the video division of a major studio. It also does not necessarily mean anyone was literally "bought off". I took it to mean that these companies basically "bought into" the marketing hype of the BDA bolstered by the willingness of Blu-ray companies to buy endcap space for their players and other retail incentives.

I can't take credit for that. You seem too easily amused.

I guess we will wait another three weeks and see how amusing your tall tale is huh?

i can remember reading some of your posts on another forum, asuming it's the same user id. that poster had some sort of grudge against sony, which seems all too similar to your own posting pattern. that's both amusing and pathetic in equal measure.

please try again. why do you place stock in the apparent sales of your "friend" with his internet company (which might be moving around a hundred titles a week if my friends are to be believed) against the 50% market share tracking of neilsen? your posts are fundamentally flawed.

How can my comments be considered a "tall tale"? There is no ending. I specifically said I don't know what Warner was going to announce, or even that they were definitely going to announce anything. I said I was told Warner would announce something at CES, then I went on to list a number of market factors that I THINK leads in a particular direction. I would be very interested if anyone has anything they might want to add to this discussion besides incomplete sales stats that don't even apply to Warner specifically that would indicate Warner might be leaning either way. I'm funny like that. I actually like to hear all sides of a topic.