I do as well. Economics 101 will trump the bluster of a salesman every time.

That's where you're wrong. Prices aren't going to drop...for a very very long time. In fact, the manufacturers who have yet to make their players are adding things that will drive UP the cost of the machines (without driving up the cost for the public) at this point.

Also, behind the scenes, Sony has hoarded all of the blue-diodes and other parts which means that other manufacturers are having a hard time producing players.

At this point, I'm also told that BD manufacturers are/will be producing HD DVD models but will be essentially doing it on the DL (does not stand for dual-layer ) until they're close to an announcement. Apparently any company announcing HD DVD support is guaranteed to get screwed for parts.

Yeah...there's a lot of stuff going on behind-the-scenes that none of us know about which is why waiting on this is all the more exciting.

Some retailers may already have had 3 video formats at some point, like recently with VHS, DVD, and UMD. When DVD came out, VHS and LD were still around. So while retailers may not want it, that certainly aren't adverse to it.

Also, when/if dual-fomat players become prevelent, studios won't have to release in both HD formats. They can pick the format they want to distribute on, since most consumers would be able to buy either. If BD brings its costs down by that point, the two formats could feasibly co-exist like DVD-R and DVD+R.

...although that doesn't invalidate what I'm saying. UMD usually got a tiny endcap, VHS was left with maybe a shelf or two hidden away... If there are three major formats in play (DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray), I see something similar happening.

DVD will continue to take up the lion's share of the video software aisle, either HD DVD or Blu-ray will be devoted some, but not much, space, and the 'losing' format will get a buried endcap or a token shelf or two. Maybe both HD DVD and Blu-ray will get that tiny, token placement before both formats disappear entirely from mass retailers.

It's all guesswork at this point, but personally, I don't believe multiformat players will result in both formats co-existing equally. I still see one being dominant or neither making any significant impact.

Just think back about 18 months. Everybody left HD DVD for dead. And look at it now. Right now, BD's future looks a helluva lot brighter than HD DVD's future did 18 months ago. It's a big (huge!) mistake to think that one format is gonna go away anytime soon.

Like most of you, I wish there were just one format too. But it's something that's not really feasible. It's looking more like PS2 and XBOX co-existing (or PS3 and XBOX360 co-existing). Most people choose one console over the other not because of superior technology or because of price, but because of specific games that are available on the console of their choice. The same will hold true for BD and HD DVD. In the end, it's about the movies. As long as their are exclusive studios (and we have no reason to believe that this will change in the foreseeable future), both formats will exist.

UMD is being cleared out at my local Sears.

I was just providing an example of 3 formats at once. It's not directly comparable to the current situation though because the timelines of the lifespans of VHS, DVD, and UMD are all different. At first DVD was relegated to the small shelf space when it first came out, with VHS dominant. As DVD picked up in sales, it took over VHS space. When UMD was introduced, DVD was dominent and VHS was on its way out. With BD and HD DVD, DVD is still dominent, but both BD and HD DVD are new arriving formats, with neither looking on its way out soon. BD and HD DVD will have a smaller footprint than DVD for quite a while, but they could have equal footprints until either one format dominates or dual-players render format domination moot.

Why do you think dual-format players will result in only one dominant format? That's not what happened when DVD recorders went dual-format.

Because of the huge difference in the cost of making a BD over an HD DVD. We aren't talking about $5 per disc, but this is an economy of scale. If a CP can save $1 Million a year in fabrication by going with HD DVD since the player will play both, then what reason would they have to make BDs?

Of course looking at it from the other angle, this will help BD survive, even if it is just one studio who puts the discs out since they will still play. But Sony isn't after an exclusive format that THEY use, they want the $$$ from others using it.

DVD+R and - R are both very similar in structure and fabrication, as well as cost. A better analogy would be a battle between DVD-R and DVD+RW (ignoring the fact that one is writable and therefore more costly). If the discs are more expensive, then why would anyone make RW discs (again ignoring the writable factor)?

I know, but you're writing a counterpoint to an argument I'm not making.

I'm not saying three formats won't exist at once. I'm saying that I don't see Blu-ray and HD DVD existing on the same level forever and ever, amen. I think one will eventually become dominant and the other one will gradually peter out.

This is what I've been saying in all of my posts, except I think the possibility of both formats keeling over is greater than dual-players leading to parity.

I never said that they would. I don't think they'll result in anything, period.

Mass retailers could also put every bit of their DVD+R and DVD-R blanks within an area of a few square feet. Neither DVD+R nor DVD-R made any attempt at branding.

I just don't consider the economics and business models surrounding pre-recorded media to be the same as blanks.

What reason do they have to make BDs now? The competition between the formats will eventually drive BD costs down, and Fox may stick with BD if they really are wanting that extra DRM.

If dual-format thrives and BD sticks around and survives, it could actually make a comeback at some point, especially if BD DL becomes feasible and economical. Studios may use BD for titles that need the higher capacity.

That paragraph is extremely convoluted. Basically though, you're asking if one ignores the differences in technology that cause the price difference, what other than the price difference is there to consider? The answer is nothing, because we're ignoring anything other than price. When one starts to factor in things like storage capacity, copy-protection, etc. you start considering the factors that studios initially considered when picking a format in the first place. Do you think that Fox, Disney, etc. didn't know that BD was going to be initially more expensive to produce?

Why? What factors would contribute to one format dying out over the other?

But if studios only release in one or the other format, the footprint size wouldn't be any bigger than if only one format dominated. So dual-format gives retailers the same space as one format, gives studios the choice of their preferred format, and gives the consumer the same freedom of choice as one dominent format. So dual-format can create all the advantages of a single dominent format without actually having a single dominent format.

And stores here too...

I completely disagree. Some of the things that were against HD DVD 18 months ago are still there but to a lesser degree.
There are absolutely no guarantees that BD will get monumentally better and the chances of HD DVD getting worse is nil.

$$$.

If each studio releases each and every title on either HD DVD or Blu-ray (but not both) and if the market is overwhelmingly dominated by dual-format players. Those are two very big "if"s. Even then, I don't know what the motivation would be to maintain the infrastructure of marketing and manufacturing two separate and for all intents and purposes identical formats.

If both formats stick around then Sony has led a tremendous failure, considering the power and support they had going into this, and Toshiba has pulled out a business miracle. At least if both stick around we'll probably get Fox to eventually release on Hd-dvd.

If PS3-Blu-Ray attachment sales suck then goodbye Blu-Ray for movies. It would enjoy the same ending that Beta, Divx, MovieCD had, as UMD is having now.

I don't know if you guys still want these, but I am posting them anyway. This week's HDCharts update:



I've retroactively replaced the Oppo tracking with a basket of five different upconverting and/or mid-range DVD players: the Oppo OPDV971H, the Samsung DVD-HD960, and the Sony models DVPNS75H, DVPCX995V and DVPNS90V.

HD DVD IS currently dominating...by far.

Oh and The Bus, I definitely appreciate the chart. Maybe you could make it a little smaller though?

it will definitely be interesting come this quarter especially with so many high-profile releases coming out. I think the combo of Kong/Superman/Batman will bring a lot of people to the HD DVD front.

That actually brings up an important question: with so many BIG titles coming to HD DVD, are there any BIG titles coming to BD? Please don't say the Davinci Code is it.

That's actually pretty clear. HD DVD is very much dominating Blu-Ray, for now. However, it has a long way to go to dominate DVD. But it's had a nice start.

While I agree and am happy about it, its dominating because the Samsung is the only option for BD, its $1000 and has had bad reviews.

Things could change significantly when....

A) The new standalone BD players are released
B) The PS3 finally comes out
C) The hd-dvd drive comes out for the 360 (even more into hd-dvd's favor)
D) BD starts announcing significant titles (like Disney's/Fox's premiere titles)

In the words of the wolf...

"Well, lets not start sucking each others d***s quite yet"

Rocky is the only thing that comes to mind. Hope they use a BD50 for that.

You're kidding, right? The future outlook has nothing to do with technology. The future outlook is how the industry views the format; it's a business outlook. 18 months ago, HD DVD was almost pronounced dead. Little chance of survival. It took a business miracle for it to get to this point. BD right now is nowhere near that point (the low point of HD DVD). In fact, most industry experts today give BD equal chance for survival as HD DVD. So, in that sense, BD's outlook as of now (about 50/50) is a helluva lot better than HD DVD's outlook as of 18 months ago (almost zero).

Technology/quality has very little to do with which format will survive. Even if Sony perfects BD50, produces better quality than HD DVD, and does it at a lower cost, it's quite possible that HD DVD will still thrive. HD DVD was first to market and it has Universal's exclusive support, and they may be enough to keep HD DVD hanging around for a long time.

Yeah, they're pretty informative. Keep 'em coming.

Now why would I be kidding?

Vintage Films in HD

You've got a couple of garbage characters at the end of your link. Here's the correct one:

http://www.startribune.com/459/story/693094.html


thanks for the article!

Oops!! Thanks Buddy!

I can't wait to see Robin Hood!!