mhg83

I've been thinking about all the developments this generation of videogames is having and how it's changing the industry history.

Nintendo Wii has changed the age range of a gamer that was once only thought of as kids games. Now Grandmas and Grandpas are getting into the action.

Digital distribution is at an all time high. Companies like Steam have full on digital distribution and are quite successfull. Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft are experimenting with DD. Some have been successfull (wii ware and virtual console) while others have downright failed (PSP GO)

These are all things that are leading towards a familiar road. The infamous videogame crash of the 80s. History will repeat itself.

For the wii, older people are loving the system but for how long? Are they going to eventually move onto tougher games for the "Hard Core Gamer" Highly unlikely. Will they buy the wii 2 upon release? All signs point to no.

Microsoft and Sony want to replicate the success of the wii by introducing their own wii mote. Both Move and Natal may sell well in the beginning but we're already seeing a few causal games that come off as a gimmick.

Which brings me to the next point. Oversaturation. There's already a flood of crappy games on the Wii. What happens when Sony and Microsoft start to sell these kind of games?

On Digital Distribution. It seems likely the next generation of consoles will have a major focus on DD. There may still be physical copies of games next gen, but by the end of next gen I think they will transition to full on DD. I have never liked the idea of not owning a physical copy of games. I have built a nice collection of games over the years. When gaming goes full on DD, that's when I'll quit gaming. I alreay have a huge backlog so I'll have plenty to go through I imagine a lot of other gamers will stop buying games as well.

Used games being no longer an option in the future will also be apart of the crash. Stores that thrive on used game sales will go out of business. A lot of gamers are bargain hunters and in the end the gaming companies will lose a signifigant amount of money.

This will all cause a new crash of video games imo.

So how can the industry avoid all this? Will you stop buying games once they go full on Digital Distribution?

Decker

In the 80s, video games were relegated to the arcades and to kids games on primitive consoles. Now video games are a huge entertainment market for adults and a common form of adult social activity. Certain genres will crash (music games for example) and I wouldn't be surprised if the upcoming motion control peripherals fail, but there's NO WAY the market crashes like it did in the 80s. Video gaming is too much a part of popular culture now.

Draven

What signs? Many will upgrade, especially since I'm sure it'll stay cheap.

Neither of these will be anything but niche. Nintendo "forced" you to use a motion controller. I don't think many people will buy these, which means there won't be many games either. Next generation is where we'll see something happen here.

There was a flood of crappy games on Nintendo, Sega, and every other major console release. The market will sort this out (if no one buys them, they'll stop making them).

I used to feel the same way, but after buying digital music only the last few years, ripping all of my DVDs to my computer, reading books on my Kindle and playing games through Steam, Xbox Live and PSN, I'm realizing I don't really need media taking up shelf space. Just have to be diligent with backups (which I am) or depend on a good cloud-based system.

As long as I can still buy and sell games through individuals, this is a non-issue. Knocking 5 bucks off a game at Gamestop is not a "deal" and never has been. I've easily gotten better deals off Half.com and eBay than I've ever seen at Gamestop. Between their constant pressure to pre-order, their inability to stock at the same level of any other store in the area, and the fact that they make most of their money by running what is essentially a pawn shop, I wouldn't mind seeing Gamestop go the way of Blockbuster anyway. And the game companies agree, since Gamestop's entire business model is built on a practice the industry hates.

No, it's won't (IMHO)...it's a big industry with a lot of safeguards.

Nope. I'll probably buy more.

msdmoney

Expansion and acceptance of the market is a good thing and is the number one thing that the industry needs. The worst thing that could happen is for the market to continue to remain insular so that video games are still looked at as kids games.

The failure of the PSP Go is completely unrelated to digital distribution in general terms, there are a lot of factors that contributed to its failure.

A restating of “the Wii is a fad” argument, the sales of the Wii continue to point to it not being a fad. Why would the older people need to move onto tougher games for the "Hard Core Gamer" ? And if they do keep playing more casual games, why would that in any way cause a crash? Will they buy a Wii 2? Who knows, but what signs point to no?

The motion controls are a gimmick argument. What to one person is an innovation, to another is a gimmick. It’s just a matter of perspective, but this is just an opinion on motion controls, and doesn’t have any relation to the video game crash of the 80’s.

The oversaturation in the market wasn’t just games, it was consoles too. You had a ton of consoles in the space, and new ones coming out practically every year. It spread the market too thin.

But your personal dislike of digital distribution hasn’t been reflected by the market, and I don’t see any relationship in your post to between digital distribution and the crash of the 80’s. What’s your connection between the crash of the 80’s and your dislike of digital distribution? The mainstream has already widely accepted digital distribution in new devices like the iphone. I could see a slight relationship to the video game crash with the Wild Wild West style of distribution on the iphone (tons of games, hard to determine what’s good), but other digital distribution platforms are much more controlled.

You’re connection of the current gaming climate to the crash of the 80’s was loose at best. If anything is going to cause a crash IMO, it’s rising development costs, and rising game prices pushing the gaming market into a niche, rather than mainstream. It won’t be analogous to the 80’s crash.

You’re post mainly reflected the frustration of a hardcore gamer with the incoming casual market of the wii, and the unwillingness to change of a veteran gamer nostalgic for the days of physical distribution.

chuckd21

Not going to happen. Which system sells the most consoles month after month? Wii. Which system gets 100 shovelware titles a month? Wii.

And Gamestop just reported a 2 gazillion dollar profit. They may have eaten up all the mom & pop game stores ala Blockbuster in the 90s, but Gamestop isn't going anywhere any time soon.

Gatherer

But can you be sure you will still be able to buy current-gen used games from anywhere, in a future digital-download-only generation? Individuals sell physical copies of used games to you in basically the same way Gamestop sells physical copies of used games to you, the individuals just tend to charge less.

How this kind of stuff is already affecting used sales for PC games, even some that are bought as physical copies:
www.digitalruin.net/node/55

Downsides of digital download console games:
www.arstechnica.com/gaming/news/2009/08/360-update-goes-live-games-on-demand-an-iffy-value.ars

How console game companies are eager to kill the used sales of their games:
www.golgotron.com/2009/06/xbox-360-games-on-demand-the-real-future-of-gaming/

A new company called "Green Man Gaming" is at least trying to enable pseudo-used sales of some digital download PC games, but most big game companies would prefer to kill used sales rather than allow/enable/participate in something like this:
www.mcvuk.com/news/37245/Green-Man-Gaming-offers-trade-ins-on-digital-games

PopcornTreeCt

Microsoft and Sony needs to focus on doing what they do best and not worry about Nintendo.

Supermallet

Didn't the first video game crash happen because of the E.T. game? It won't happen again because people are now well-conditioned to expect poor games based on movies.

Raul3

And no, it won't happen. The movie industry will crash first before the video game industry crashes. There I said it.