Personally, I think even the Wii should be difficult to find. At the very least, it doesn't seem like it will be as easy as you say it will be.

Time will tell.

I think pretty much everyone that want's one right away will be able to get one by the end of the year with as many as they are shipping.

And I don't see it being that hard to find on launch day if you go to the right stores. i.e. avoid the best buys, circuit cities etc. where people will line up the night before (possibly) and hit something like a target an hour before they open and you should get one.

There's just not the demand for it that there was for the 360 and especially for the PS2/PS3, couple that with what sounds like adequate supply and it should be easy to find at our around launch IMO.

I'd definitely argue that there's more demand for the $250 Wii than the $600 PS3. I, though, think the PS3 is easily going to finish dead-last in this console war.

People lined up here at Target and Sears both the night of the 360 launch, as well as Walmart. I certainly don't think it's going to be an issue of you being able to go in on a random day and pick up a Wii. They'll all sell out.

Whether or not there is more actual demand for a $250 Wii vs a $580(avg) PS3 will be very hard to tell due to the difference in supply. The PS3 will sell out regardless and it will debut first and therefore the big story on the news. Even if the Wii sells 5 times the amount and also sells out, I predict the PS3 will still be the "hot item".

There are many more Sony loyalists (over 100 million PS2 sold) than Nintendo console fans (around 21 million gamecubes sold). The price won't offset that. And the PS3's will also sell quicker do to that being the one the Ebay whores are focused on this holiday season.

Many on the net that were undecided about whether to get a wii decided not to get one for now after the $250 price (doesn't seem to have dissuaded many planning to purchase, but has affected those that were on the fence).

It WILL sell out. But I think you will be able to find one on launch day if you get up early and hit the stores when the open.

Then it will be scarce for a week or two, and then start becoming easier to find if you keep checking back, or preorder one on a future shipment at a game store.

With the US getting most of the 4 million, it shouldn't be all that tough to get one before x-mas.

I still plan on pre-ordering to be safe, and to save myself having to look around. But those that don't preorder aren't going to be in the same boat as with the 360 last year or the PS3 this fall.

Two points:
1. A large number of ps2s sold because on release it was the cheapest DVD player in Japan. The attach rate (industry term for how many games per console sold) for the ps2 has been one of the lowest in the history of home video games. Attach rate and unit sales together matters much more than just unit sales. So honestly there really may *not* be more sony loyalists than Nintendo fanbois.

2. Pre-ordering does *not* guarantee you get one, why would you put your money down with a store/site whose fine print says they won't guarantee you one?

That's part of it, but I think a big part of the tie in is that it was the mass market casual gamer system. I.E. it was the one frat boys bought just to buy Madden and NBA Live every year and so on.

Of course all the repurchases due to breakdowns drive the attach rate down as well.

But even being a huge Nintendo fan, I think it's absurd to argue that sony doesn't have a larger fanbase. Playstation=videogames among the 10-18 crowd today the way Nintendo did when I was a kid.

I want a Wii, and think they will be easy to find. I'll probably preorder just because I have $162 in credit at Gamestop, and might as well put it toward that as long as I get a good spot on the list (i.e. in the first 20). That should get me one at launch, and within a month in worst case scenario. Plus I could always cancel it if I pick up one somewhere else first and use the credit on games later.

The PS3 will be much more difficult to find than even the 360 was. You won't see any sitting on store shelves this year..........

With 500k allocated for 2006..... I wonder if they will even make it to the shelves.