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Old 05-07-04, 10:55 AM
  #101  
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I think the big surprize is that next TC is a tie and they do the purple rock thing and rob gets booted.
Old 05-07-04, 11:08 AM
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The big twist happens during the live portion, if I remember correctily.
Old 05-07-04, 11:18 AM
  #103  
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Originally posted by das Monkey
El Scorcho, is that you? (It's 1 in 5)

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Old 05-07-04, 11:21 AM
  #104  
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Hmm!!!

I was reading on another forum the thoughts on the show, and some people think Amber threw the immunity challenge so as to let rob win immunity.

Interesting tactic. As she could have given him the immunity, but who knows.
Old 05-07-04, 11:29 AM
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I don't think Amber could've possibly beat Rob on the walking the rope portion--it requires a lot of arm strength she (and most females) lack.

What I couldn't understand was Rupert's play to make Tom switch sides but his vote falled in line with the "Robfather's" plan. Was Rupert playing (and lying to) Tom all along?
Old 05-07-04, 11:31 AM
  #106  
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Originally posted by dotheDVDeed
Was Rupert playing (and lying to) Tom all along?

I think so. I think they were all lying to Tom.
Old 05-07-04, 11:50 AM
  #107  
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the rope bridge was part of the reward challenge.

the puzzle was the immunity challenge.

also, i agree. they were all lying to Tom, but Rob is going to get the brunt of the hostility.
Old 05-07-04, 11:57 AM
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Originally posted by BadlyDrawnBoy
Hmm!!!

I was reading on another forum the thoughts on the show, and some people think Amber threw the immunity challenge so as to let rob win immunity.

Interesting tactic. As she could have given him the immunity, but who knows.
I don't think Amber could possibly ever win a physical challenge. She probably has the highest IQ of the remaining people, but I don't think she could do anything, even the simplest challenge that requires physical coordination - even just standing on one leg. She is way too weak.

If Rob continues to win immunity, and I imagine he will - it is all over. Historically the challenges are about agility and strength - not brute power (Rupert), not brains (Amber), not drooling (Genna). They are all toast.
Old 05-07-04, 11:57 AM
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Originally posted by Groucho
Duhr. You're right.
Actually, the 1 in 5 is based on an assumption that each of the remaining 5 has an equal chance of being the ultimate survivor which is not the case.

The fact that the person won the reward challenge increases their chances of making is to the final two so it is actually less than 1 in 5.
Old 05-07-04, 11:58 AM
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Originally posted by Booth

The fact that the person won the reward challenge increases their chances of making is to the final two ...
Huh? How does that work. I'm not following.
Old 05-07-04, 12:02 PM
  #111  
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Originally posted by Booth
Actually, the 1 in 5 is based on an assumption that each of the remaining 5 has an equal chance of being the ultimate survivor which is not the case.

The fact that the person won the reward challenge increases their chances of making is to the final two so it is actually less than 1 in 5.
Now, I'm no mathematicatactition, but aren't there a number of logical fallacies in this statement?
First and foremost, the reward challenge has nothing to do with whether the person moves forward in the game (that would be the immunity challenge)...
Old 05-07-04, 12:11 PM
  #112  
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Originally posted by John-In-VA
Does anyone remember the spoilers from months ago about who would be voted out each week and who would be in the final two?

I don't know if each week is holding up, but there is still a chance for the final two to be the final two in the spoiler list.
Here's the list ... as you can see, it hasn't been completely accurate, but it's damned close:

Spoiler:

Tina
Rudy
Jenna M.
Rob C.
(Swap Time)
Jerri
Susan
Ethan
Richard
Colby
(Merge)
Lex
Kathy
Shii-Ann
Alicia
Jenna
Rupert
Tom

Final Two: Rob and Amber


And analysis:

Spoiler:
Alright here's the list. The interesting thing is that it's really pretty close, but not accurate. It has the "swap" and "merge" in the right places, and the first four to leave are in the right order. It also gets the next five to leave, but not in the right order. By the time the two tribes merged into one, it had every single player that started out on that tribe right, and even got the first two kicked off post-merge right (Lex and Kathy).

As events were borne out, Alicia and Shii-Ann were the next two to go, but the spoiler list got them switched around.

It was definitely wrong on the Tom and Jenna front, as the spoiler list had the final four being Rupert, Tom, Rob, and Amber, when the actual final four is Rupert, Rob, Amber, and Jenna.

Which sort of makes you wonder if this is a fake list made by someone who's definitely "in the know" and whoever wrote it up has made it just accurate enough to keep everyone guessing.


It should also be noted, that the "details" given in the list have been mostly wrong. For example, it implied that Rupert and Richard were on the same tribe at one point when they weren't, and it mentioned that Susan was voted off when she actually quit. But it was spot-on about Rob and Amber having a romantic alliance.[/spoiler]

In the next post, I'll put up the entire list with all of the details, so anyone wishing to read the whole thing may.

Last edited by Josh-da-man; 05-07-04 at 12:13 PM.
Old 05-07-04, 12:11 PM
  #113  
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• El Scorcho •



I had one stats screwup on the forum in the 4 years I've been here and you just won't let it go.
Hey, at least I'm not making short jokes.

das
Old 05-07-04, 12:12 PM
  #114  
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And here's the "spoiler" list with all of the details included, for those interested:

Spoiler:
1. Tina Wesson: Tina did not want to do this show- the media says different, but she was very hesitant and did not seem to be very positive from the beginning- She is the first booted player and while i cannot tell you the vote count (Q knows why) she seems to feel doomed from the start- The tribe does get along well, and even Jerri is kind (at the beginning) In confessionals Jerri does talk about seeing the ouster of Tina and Colby as her main priority- Tina is one you will see that defends her position in survivor history and dismisses this game as a true measure of "survivor"- Jenna and Jerri seem to persuade at least one other to vote off Tina

2. Rudy Boesch -- This tribe does not start off well, and that is obvious- Rudy has lost a few steps since survivor one, Rupert does lie to Rudy- whether or not the final editing shows this or not remaiins to be seen- i just laugh because Rupert is seen as a hero but he is just as bad as those he Criticized in PI- Rudy thinks he is Ok but easily is the second boot- Rupert justifies the boot afterward (as usual) Jenna (leaves cuz somebody in family died, not voted out-symbolic tribal council)

3. Jenna Morasca leaves game, and i guess that is already known- Originally they were not going to make this a huge part of the episode, BUT the overwhelming feelings of the whole cast were evident- Just to make you Jenna fans feel better- She and Colby were going to be targeted anyway- if they had lost i think Jenna would have been the first boot anyway (we will never know for sure)

4. Rob Cesternino - Rob is well liked by his tribemates- believe it or not this tribe really is the love tribe- they all are very respectful of each other- i thought there would be more friction early on in this tribe and it turned out to be just the opposite- In their confessionals- they are mean and dirty- especially ROBM.- he does this the whole game- If things go as orginally planned, alot of this episode talks about Rob C's strategy and i have to admit that he does not see it coming- the editing starts to show the true tribel leader, Rob M as the leader

Swap time

5. Jerri Manthey -- Jerri is the obvious boot in her new living environment- she is one of the very few that leaves with class- she pretty much knows she is going home-nothing too exciting with her

6. Susan Hawke -- Sue thinks she is in a position of power, she is not however Lex and Shi Ann lead to her dismissal

7. Ethan Zohn -- Ethan acts like a jackass pretty much the whole time he is there- he complains alot, on camera and off- he feels that the set up put him in a tough situation- he knows he is going as well- he threatens to quit the show but does not- voted out easily (he really is a pansy) He also talks alot about how the switch put him in a group of people he does not know that well- i dont know if in the end they focus on that

8. Richard Hatch -- Richard loses the most respect of any of the former survivors- his strategy seemed very odd- he wanted to immediately try and minimize his S1 success by acting bizarre- he and Kathy have a huge blowup and the rest join in to vote Richard out- This is the episode where Jeff yells at many of the contestants and they show some of this in this episode- Rich leaves with Rupert calling him "pathetic shell of the survivor 1 champion"

9. Colby Donaldson -- this is really where the backstabbing gets bad- Jenna Lewis turns her back on her "new" alliance that includes Lex, Cathy, Shi-ann and Rupert- To me Colby seemed like the life of the party on the outback- he really does not do a whole lot on this- He is not the leader, purposely, but his alliance building was not that strong- he has the whole "marked man" complex and is not surprised that someone has turned their back on him- he exits gracefully

Merge time

10. Lex Van den Berghe -- Lex is really cool on this show, but alot of this episode focus's on he and Tom's relationship- Lex is convinced that Tom, Kathy, Shi-Ann, and Rupert are sticking together- Tom specifically talks about the Ethan- Lex final 2 pact and that he has no loyalty- Tom is smart enough to see that he can win by sticking with his original group- Needless to say Lex is chapped on this

11. Kathy Vavrick O’Brien -- Shi jumps ship and votes Kathy- this episode is pretty boring- Kathy focuses on persuading the "older" crowd to stick together and form a new alliance- the editing shows it might work but we all know better than that

12. Shii-Ann Huang - Shi thinks she has convinced Alicia and Jenna to vote with her- no shock when Shi goes- I cant stand this girl- she spends the whole game playing to the cameras and bragging as if she is a great manipulator- she also gets bad edit which makes here America's new Jerri-

13. Alicia Calaway -- Alicia and Jenna are good friends- Amber and Rob vote Alicia out in a scheme that leaves Alicia in shock- RobM, Amber, Alicia, and Tom all agreed to vote Rupert

14. Jenna Lewis -- Here it gets tricky- lots of changing deals- the voting block focuses on Jenna, Tom, Rupert voting out Rob M-Someone changes their mind ( i would guess Tom) Read between the lines when i say that i have no access to the actual votes

15. Rupert Boneham - Tie here- GREAT episode- Amber and Rob vote Rupert, Tom and Rupert vote Rob M (while i cannot tell you for sure, it is obvious through confessionals) Rob M makes deal with Tom at tribal council to change vote and take to final 2- Tom takes deal- just like in PI Rupert actually was pretty cool during this, but just like in Pi his bad moments are not shown

16. Big Tom Buchanan - Amber knows exactly what Rob was doing and they discussed before hand what they would do in that event- Rupert was too well liked- Tom is very loved- Rob wins immunity and takes Amber- Tom is livid

17 & 18. Amber Brkich and Rob Mariano final 2 I do not know final vote- Rob is hated because of his cockiness and backstabbing- Rob also promised on his life he would not betray Tom- Amber is not just flying under the radar during allstars- she is not well like either- I really think it might be closer vote than people would think it would be- I think the players that would vote based on gameplay were booted before Jury- BUT here is the predicted upset- I think Rob's Jury performance is one of the best, if not the best ever- he specifically talks about how great the booted members are; Amber does not do as well- although Rob is hated i think he wins a close vote (just my opinion) He explains in jury every step of every decision.
Old 05-07-04, 12:20 PM
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Originally posted by WillieTheShakes
Now, I'm no mathematicatactition, but aren't there a number of logical fallacies in this statement?
First and foremost, the reward challenge has nothing to do with whether the person moves forward in the game (that would be the immunity challenge)...
It's pretty simple. Obviously not everyone has an equal chance of winning a challenge. Some are stronger, some are smarter, etc. That fact alone precludes a uniform probability distribution, which is what is necessary for the 1 in 5 to hold.

Historically, most survivors who win the car reward also make it to the final three and often the final two.

So looking at past history, we can conclude that the winner of the car has a high probablity of making it to the final two but a low probablity of winning it all.

That is why Jeff pointed this out-- there is a correlation between winning the car reward and losing the jury's vote.
Old 05-07-04, 12:26 PM
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That sounds a lot closer to handicapping than it does to statistics...
Old 05-07-04, 12:26 PM
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Originally posted by TwineTime
I'll say it again. Who cares how you or anyone else thinks the jury should react? What matters is - certain people, while playing a game like this for several weeks, are not going to have the same reaction you do while reclining on your sofa and watching them on television. Understanding human nature enough to realize that just like you and several others here react to the jury's perceived hypocrisy, they themselves are probably similiarly reacting to the players still in the game - is the kind of knowledge that people who lose jury votes could desperately use.
Anyone that loses sight that this is a game deserves the title of sore loser. I can be 100% certain that I would not hold a grudge if I was stabbed in the back. That's how this game is played. You can take 2 approaches. Sit back and ride coat tails or you can take control and your going to have to back stab. Lex is a baby and deserves a swift kick in the nuts as das has suggested. I kinda hope its Amber and Rob in the final 2 so they can both pretty much say "I don't care who you vote for, we are going to be together outside of here" That might throw Lex into a crybaby tantrum.
Old 05-07-04, 12:35 PM
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Rob/Amber final two would be very boring, imo. Like you said, giving to one of them is like giving to both so the votes wouldn't really matter.
Old 05-07-04, 01:14 PM
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The "win the car, lose the money" condition probably also comes from the animosity factor when the votes are cast.
Old 05-07-04, 01:41 PM
  #120  
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Caught a bit of Jeff Probst on The View, and he said that the big twist has something to do with Survivor the show, and not Rob and Amber. Here is my guess, which might be listed somewhere else in the thread, but I am too lazy to read it all:

Spoiler:
I think that the big surprise is going to be that the winner does not get a million, but they get a few million. That is the kind of lame surprise (isn't it pretty widely speculated anyway?) that I would expect. I would love to see a different voting arrangement or something, but I doubt it
Old 05-07-04, 03:57 PM
  #121  
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Originally posted by dotheDVDeed


What I couldn't understand was Rupert's play to make Tom switch sides but his vote falled in line with the "Robfather's" plan. Was Rupert playing (and lying to) Tom all along?
I thought that Rupert and Jenna had a chance to make a play, as witnessed by Rob when they were discussing it. It would have been good strategy also. Hard to make a stab at how well the remaining survivors can figure things out, but there is a good possibility that they know going to the final 3 with Rob is a bad idea.

Rob wins immunity, takes Amber. Rob knows he can beat Jenna at immunity, so take her to the final three to be safe. Rupert has to go next (unless Rupert can win immunity because of a strength challenge).

So anyway, they should know that a Rupert-Jenna-Tom final three was a lot more beneficial for them. It really could be almost anyone's game then. And a 3-2 vote could have made sure it would happen.

But once they failed to get Tom "the swing vote" over... they had to be revise their strategy. Amber probably figured out that Tom should be the next one to go (look how well he did in the challenge) and as she said at council, she picked based on her gut feel... (and so not from just Rob telling her?). So Amber/Rob pick Tom to go which was a smart move.

At this point, Rupert/Jenna could have picked Amber anyway. I am not convinced it would have been a bad move.

2 votes Amber
2 votes Tom
1 vote Jenna

Hard to say which way it would have went. If there was any discussion, and then a rechoosing as they tend to do, it would not be hard to point out to Tom (and hope he understands it) that Rob/Amber just voted for him. He would then switch his vote to Amber. And Rob would be next unless he won all immunities (which he might).

But that is water under the bridge. They did not think that out and just saw that they failed, so they fell back into the support Rob strategy and hope something else happens next time.

If Jenna or Rupert win immunity, it could be a tie vote next time. If one does not, then it still may be a tie vote if they were smart, or one decides that the final three is worth it and goes along with Rob. Dumb move if they do... but I can see that happening.
Old 05-07-04, 06:25 PM
  #122  
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They had to get rid of Tom because he was the swing vote (dangerous position to be in if you ask me). If they had any brains they would of got rid of Amber.
Old 05-07-04, 07:02 PM
  #123  
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Definition of "I am the swing vote" -

"I failed to form a strong alliance."
Old 05-07-04, 07:52 PM
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Possible spoiler about the 'twist' from another board:

Spoiler:
Sue has had an 'extreme makeover' and actually looks very pretty now, including a boob job, tummy tuck, eye lift, peel - the works. So she will be totally unrecognizeable at the live show. This better not be it, or I'll be pissed. That chick wasted enough of my life already.
Old 05-07-04, 08:43 PM
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Historically, most survivors who win the car reward also make it to the final three and often the final two.
I wouldn't say this. The car has been a reward 6 times. Colby and Matt did make it to Final 2 and Lex made the Final 3, but half the time the Survivor who won the car was voted out immediately at Final 5 (Sean, Ted and Burton). I'd say it's a toss up.


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