Saw this at cnn.com today. I have Directivo, does anyone know if these knock offs have any better features.


TiVo faces fight of life
Exploding market threatens No. 1 DVR brand
Wednesday, April 28, 2004 Posted: 10:48 AM EDT (1448 GMT)






(AP) -- Debra Baker tells people she has TiVo. But she really doesn't.

The 33-year-old New York tax consultant has a variant -- a digital video recorder offered through her cable company. She didn't know what "DVR" stood for until then.

"I thought DVR was Time Warner's name for TiVo," she said.

So, like many others, Baker simply uses the leading DVR brand as the catchall term for the new love in her lounging life: a machine that lets her easily record her favorite TV shows and watch them whenever she wants.

It's a flattering curse for TiVo, whose revolutionary technology records TV programs without the hassles of videotape, letting users pause live TV, do instant replays and begin watching programs even before the recording has finished.

As more clones crop up, the pioneer that helped popularize DVRs is in danger of becoming marginalized.

"TiVo was the proponent of time-shifting TV and their name is synonymous with it, but everyone else in the world that puts together a set-top box is doing the same thing and that's not helping TiVo," said Mike Paxton, analyst at In-Stat/MDR.

The key ingredients of a DVR are a hard drive to store video, an electronic programming guide to facilitate recording, and software to tie together the technology and give the user navigational control.

DVRs are primarily reaching the mass market through cable companies, and TiVo has yet to get its software, including its widely touted user interface, into their DVR-equipped set-top boxes. They are instead using unbranded DVR software from their longtime set-top-box suppliers -- Scientific Atlanta and Motorola.

"The cable train has left without TiVo onboard, and I don't think they're coming back for TiVo," said Sean Badding, an analyst with The Carmel Group.

Fastest path
TiVo's code also is missing from Panasonic's combination DVD Recorder-DVR and Mitsubishi's upcoming HDTV receiver with a 120-gigabyte DVR. Sharp is building DVR capabilities directly into some of its LCD TVs, again without TiVo.

At the end of 2003, more than a third of the 3.5 million U.S. households with DVRs had TiVo's software and services, according to Forrester Research. More than half of that comes though TiVo's partnership with DirecTV, which has been offering DVR services with its satellite offerings for years.

But as DVRs gain in popularity -- Forrester predicts nearly half of American households will have a DVR by 2009 -- TiVo may be hard-pressed to hold on to its leading market share.


Bob Poniatowski, a product marketer, demonstrates new uses of TiVo at the company's offices in Alviso, California.
Time Warner Cable was the first cable operator to launch a DVR in July 2002. Just 18 months later, 370,000 DVR customers were paying an extra $4.95 to $9.95 a month for the service. Time Warner Cable is a unit of Time Warner Inc., as is CNN.

Comcast Corp., Charter Communications Inc. and nearly every major cable operator all plan to widely deploy DVRs this year.

"If Time Warner hadn't come out with a DVR, I would have considered a TiVo by now," said Robert Meyer, a 42-year-old finance portfolio manager from New York.

Dave Watson, a Comcast executive vice president, said choosing Scientific Atlanta and Motorola's technologies was simply the fastest path available to deliver DVR services. Comcast did a brief test with TiVo in 2000 and remains "in touch with TiVo, but there's nothing specific beyond that," Watson said.

'Kinder, gentler TiVo'
TiVo, based in Alviso, California, has knocked on the cable industry's doors for years -- and admittedly changed its take-my-TiVo approach to a more flexible tactic of designing its software around the cable industry's needs.

"It's a kinder, gentler TiVo now," said TiVo president Marty Yudkovitz. "It's about building what your customer wants."

But why should cable companies pay more to get TiVo's technology and brand name when they already have apparently good enough DVR features from their entrenched partners?

TiVo's co-founder and chief executive, Mike Ramsey, maintains that clones can't compete with such hallmark TiVo features as automatically recording shows based on keywords, such as favorite actor, director or sports team. Unlike cable DVRs, TiVo machines also can guess what programs a user might enjoy based on viewing habits.

This brain-dead knockoff stuff is not going to work. People's expectations are going to rise. They're going to hear about TiVo's (features) and they're going to want it.
-- Mike Ramsey, TiVo co-founder and chief executive

"This brain-dead knockoff stuff is not going to work," said Ramsey. "People's expectations are going to rise. They're going to hear about TiVo's (features) and they're going to want it."

But customers of cable's offerings seem satisfied.

Baker, a TV-holic who never owned a TiVo before, considers her new cable DVR system "the greatest invention" -- and easy enough to use that she never needed an operating manual.

Baker and her husband also appreciated the lack of upfront investment costs to get the cable DVR.

The cable company installed the digital cable box for the Bakers and charges $8.95 a month. TiVo charges subscribers $12.95 a month or $299 for the life of the unit, on top of the $150 or more to get the standalone equipment.

With all this competition from cable companies, now is a critical time for TiVo to turn its No. 1 brand into real sales, Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff said.

Allying with cable
An additional threat may also be lurking if DirecTV decides to instead use the xTV DVR technology from its new sister Rupert Murdoch company, NDS Group.

TiVo executives are confident their deal with DirecTV is secure, but allying with cable remains a top priority. Getting into cable boxes would give TiVo a broad footprint to help drive its advertising business, which Ramsey sees as key to TiVo's future.

The company, meanwhile, says it has 60 foreign and domestic DVR-related patents and more pending, and won't hesitate to use them in court against competitors it deems infringers.

TiVo sued Echostar in January, claiming the satellite TV operator's DVR violates TiVo's patent for a "multimedia time warping system" that allows a user to store a TV program and watch another program at the same time.

But for now, even without a cable deal, TiVo is thriving and aims to become profitable by the end of 2005.

The company also estimates it will more than double subscribers almost 3 million by the end of January 2005. The company has earmarked $50 million in marketing and promotional rebates.

"This is it. This is their shot to get a whole lot of new subscribers before cable DVR subscribers really take off," Bernoff said. "And we'll see if they'll be a hitting a dribbler back to the pitcher or a home run."

As long as they have their arrangement with DirecTV, they will be fine. Their standalone product probably is in trouble though. Same goes for Replay-TV, which I happen to think is a better standalone DVR compared to TIVO.

I have to say to that the digital cable PVRs are definitely inferior products though. I got one to add to my 2 Replay-TVs and it pales in comparison as far as features and recording methodology go.

This article doesn't seem accurate - I think Replay predated TIVO.

No. The DirecTiVo is still the finest product on the market. The primary "danger" to TiVo talked about in this article is that people either lack the information or the interest in the superior TiVo product.

Hardly the "fight of life" the title mentions. It would be great if they could tackle the cable market, but I don't see how they're in trouble.

das

How do you know? Have you tried them all? This article was in my saturday newspaper. All it says is that the Tivo name is at risk of product generalization, sort of like kleenex.

I've tried the following extensively:
DirecTIVO
Standalone TIVO
Replay-TV
Cable DVR (Comcast SA 8000 box)

DirecTIVO is by far the best. Of course, for those of us directionally challenged, we don't have that option.

The Cable DVR is by far the worst. Also, I believe that most of the cable DVRs are pretty much the same when it comes to functions and features.

Also, I don't see anything bad for TIVO about having the TIVO name become generalized for all similar products. It would be just using the term 'Coke' for all colas or soft drinks.

Excuse me while I make a xerox after blowing my nose in a kleenex.

Clearly you aren't a marketing major. Trademark dilution can be devistating to a company.

http://www.bitlaw.com/trademark/dilution.html

All? No. Most (including the only ones of real consequence)? Yes. There's a legitimate debate between the stand-alone TiVo and the stand-alone Replay, and maybe the cable PVRs in other areas of the country are better than the ones around here, but when it comes to the top product on the market, the DirecTiVo is the clear winner. Unless there's some obscure local PVR I've never heard about, I feel confident in that assertion.

das

If TIVO wants to stay in the market place then they need to make units cheaper and get rid of the monthly fee's or the one time fee. I wonder why TIVO never considered the Cable TV market.... Maybe they did and they priced themselves to high and no they will pay for that..

What they should of done is tried to enter the CABLE BOX market and tried to sell cable boxes to the cable companies....

I agree with this. With the competition outside of the DirecTV sphere, TIVO is overpriced. I can't figure out why DirecTIVOs were so cheap compared to standalone TIVOs. One would think it would be reversed since TIVO has sort of a built-in monopoly with DirecTV subscribers while there is stiff competition for the people who have cable.

If I was a casual tv viewer, even though it is an signifcantly inferior product, I would proabably opt for the DVR provided by the cable company. No up-front costs, decent storage space, usually a reduced introductory fee if you haggle for it, lower monthly fees, and cable company installs it.

I see Tivo turning into Apple, in a sense. Possibly superior, more user-friendly technology, but more expensive. People will want what's cheap, and the knockoffs will win. Tivo will remain around, with a smaller, but fiercely loyal user base, while continuing to innovate.*

*I'm a Windows user, not Mac, so no fan boy comments please

I think the stand alones are in danger. I would love one. or Replay, doesn't matter. But $300 for basically a 40 gb hard drive. I don't think so.

Not to mention $13 a month for programming? Huh? Replay used to offer it for free until they realized that Tivo made money off it. Obviously it doesn't cost that much to run it monthy if one company could offer it for free.

Actually I think Tivo (and Replay) need to do another push for cable DVR. The systems in place in cable are HORRIBLE. I just got my Sci-Atlantic DVR and if we were not saving up to buy a house I would probably go get a stand alone Replay unit. Cox/Comcoast/TW/etc really need to reconsider partnering up with Tivo or Replay or I can see people dropping the DVR service.

So they admit that it collects data on the viewing habits? Do they expect people to want this? Another reason that I will probably not get a TIVO.

If TIVO wants to get another audience, it should sell recorders that don't require a monthly fee. Have them work just like a VCR where you can tell it to record from one time to another. I'd get one so i wouldn't have to use tapes anymore. I'm not so lazy that I couldn't tell it when to record so I don't need some guide to program from.

Not really free - Replay built that lifetime cost in the price of the hardware. Back in 1999-2001, Replays sold for $250 more than TIVO - that difference representing the lifetime subscription. They stopped doing this because there was a perception that TIVOs were significantly cheaper, when they were not at all.

Red Dog, you changed your sig! I never thought I would see the day that the DA Adam Schiff would be no more!!!




On Topic: The DirecTivo is the best. And I don't think there is a decent DVR in use by any cable company - I have yet to see one.

I do know a few people who have been turned off by Tivo and Replay's monthly/lifetime fees - if they get rid of that additional service, I can see it being a positive for both companies.

L&O used to be my favorite show. PTI is now my favorite show so it is only fitting to use a quote from it.

I see - it's really gone down the tubes for you. Orbach leaving, Rohm still around, etc... Sig change makes sense.

DirecTv subsidized much of the costs associated with the DTivo. In addition, it's simpler hardware. There's no MPEG encoder for one, which is basically why there's no "two tuner" standalone Tivo. A second encoder would drive the prices up even further.

That is actually the one major advantage the cable DVRs have over standalone TIVO and Replay - they have 2 tuners.

The article is talking about the ability to rate programs with a THUMBS UP or THUMBS DOWN and, based on that information, generate suggestions.

I actually like my SA 8000 DVR. The first one I had was faulty, and I bitched about it all the time, but eventually it crapped out, and I got a replacement that actually worked. It has dual tuners, a digital pip, and although the stock remote didn't support it, it was easy to program my universal remote to allow 30 second skips. In my opinion, the only feature it is really missing is the ability to record every NEW episode. with shows that aren't in syndication, its easy to set it to record every show, but for shows like sopranos, where there are 10 repeat showing a week, you have to manually set a recording each week.

The data collection is anonymous, so why would you care?

Plus, this data has started to give a voice to those who aren't "Nielsen Families" as data can be generated to see not only how many people watch a show live, but how many also "time-shift" it.

I find that so annoying. I can't program a season record for the 9pm Sopranos because of this - it repeats later in the week at a time I already have 2 recordings scheduled so I have to remember to manually record the Sunday 9 pm. Then just in case I forget to do this, I set up a season record of the midnight showing of Sopranos on HBOP.

BTW, I found the PIP function to be useless. The PIP window was practically unwatchable because of the pixelation.

Fortunately, since I have 2 Replays as well (to record off analog cable), I only use my SA-8000 for premium channel recordings, for 3 and 4-way time conflicts, and to have the additional tuner for when I need it during college hoops season.

Most people do want it. The collection is anonymous, and if it helps save any of my favorite shows, I'm all for it.