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The ONE and Only "Survivor Thread" - (Part II)

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The ONE and Only "Survivor Thread" - (Part II)

Old 04-13-01, 01:16 AM
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The ONE and Only "Survivor Thread" - (Part II)

Previous Thread: http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthr...threadid=84036

Old 04-13-01, 08:53 AM
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OK if survivorsucks.com and other media outlets were picking Colby earlier in the week and then all of the sudden switching to Amber, that certainly tells me that there is a leak out there.

Amber was definitely my favorite. Tina was pissing me off by saying that Amber basically can't stand on her own, but Tina is the person who has been joined at the hip with Keith the whole time.

Colby is gone next week unless he wins immunity. That's fine with me because I can't stand him. I am also rooting against Tina. What will be interesting is if Colby wins immunity again. Then he becomes a swing vote and Keith is vulnerable in a tiebreaker situation (with votes against than Rodger and Elizabeth). I think Keith is in serious trouble in 2 weeks regardless of what happens next week.

Unless it is a Keith/Tina final, I have serious doubts that one those 2 can win. They have alienated 3 of the Ogakors. Then any remaining Kucha only would need 1 vote from their former teammates to win.
Old 04-13-01, 09:06 AM
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Die Colby Die!!!! If it comes down to he and Tina as the final two I really don't think I could watch. Hell, I'd rather have had Jerri win than either of those two.
Old 04-13-01, 10:03 AM
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What's wrong with Colby? Nobody believes in survival of the fittest?

Besides, Colby winning immunity is the fault of every other tribe member. If they didn't want him to have immunity for the 2nd time, why didn't everyone just knock out all three of his plates with their slingshots first, then hit others' plates? Colby winning last night wasn't by anything he did -- it's by what the others DIDN'T do.
Old 04-13-01, 10:03 AM
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By the way guys, they are gonna be revealing the winner differently this time around. Quote from an article:


"None of the survivors knows who's won. The votes cast during the final tribal council were sealed and have been kept under lock and key since the show was shot in the Australian Outback last fall. The vote will be tallied and the winner will be announced live at the show's conclusion.

The finale will air from 8-10 p.m. EDT. Like the first season, it will be followed immediately by "Survivor: The Outback Reunion," a one-hour live show to be hosted by Bryant Gumbel that will feature all 16 survivors."


http://news.excite.com/news/ap/010412/15/tv-survivor

Old 04-13-01, 10:06 AM
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Originally posted by aob505

"None of the survivors knows who's won. The votes cast during the final tribal council were sealed and have been kept under lock and key since the show was shot in the Australian Outback last fall. The vote will be tallied and the winner will be announced live at the show's conclusion.

Read about this earlier. This is an excellent idea because it is readily apparent that there are leaks out there.
Old 04-13-01, 10:08 AM
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I don't like Colby because he comes across as fake to me. I understand that he's trying to win, but that doesn't make him enjoyable for me to watch. I'd rather see Elisabeth or Rodger win it. Those two always seem real to me. Furthermore, I just don't understand his method of alliance. Obviously it isn't working anymore though...

Tina I cannot stand. I'd be very happy if she were booted next week, but I doubt that will happen. She is a walking contradiction with all of her "Amber is weak" crap. Look who did better in the physical challenge for the prize. Give me a break, Amber didn't really seem all that weak at all.

Old 04-13-01, 10:10 AM
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Originally posted by GuessWho
What's wrong with Colby? Nobody believes in survival of the fittest?

It has nothing to do with that, although I've never been a big fan of jocks to begin with. It is his "I don't want to talk about strategy right now" attitude. Trying to make people believe that he is here for more than the prize - like he is a better person or something. Give me a break.
Old 04-13-01, 10:12 AM
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Originally posted by Alyoshka
Give me a break, Amber didn't really seem all that weak at all.

I agree. Tina criticized her because of her association with Jerri. Simple as that.
Old 04-13-01, 10:34 AM
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If Colby wins immunity again, I think that Rodger will be voted off next week because of the "we should have built the camp on higher ground" comment. Elizabeth and Tina seemed to take offense to that.

If Colby does not get immunity - he is a goner.


I think that the final two will come down to Keith and Tina. They did rescue the rice, and appear to have the most mental control over the group.
Old 04-13-01, 11:01 AM
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Colby has to keep winning immunity to make it to the last two. If he loses next week, he's gone and the final two is Elisabeth and Rodger.
Old 04-13-01, 11:17 AM
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You guys are crazy. I think if Keith doesn't win immunity next week, it will be Keith. If Keith does win immunity next week it will be either Tina or Colby.

Voting Amber off has created a new situation. At this point, you want to get rid of the person who is most likely to win immunity. Rodger and Elizabeth have little to no chance (have they won anything?) and would not be seen as a threat - but they are dangerous because they might make it to the final two and are more likeable - but remember the jury knows that this is a game - look who they rewarded last time because that person played the game better than anyone else.

I think next week - Keith, Tina or Colby are toast.
Old 04-13-01, 11:20 AM
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Originally posted by Alyoshka

Tina I cannot stand. I'd be very happy if she were booted next week, but I doubt that will happen. She is a walking contradiction with all of her "Amber is weak" crap. Look who did better in the physical challenge for the prize. Give me a break, Amber didn't really seem all that weak at all.

I am pretty sure her statement about Amber was more to her intestinal fortitude and how strong she is in alliances, not her physical strength.
Old 04-13-01, 11:33 AM
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A couple of things...

Did anyone else notice Colby "cheat" during the reward challenge last night? There were supposed to have one clip on a rope at all times. When he and Amber crossed paths, he was ducking under a rope, and clearly unclipped from one side so that he could duck under and reclip on the other side.

Colby screwed himself over long before the merge by remaining a loner (even though he had the loose alliance with Tina and Keith). Its clear that Colby will be gone if he doesn't win immunity, but if he does, then it gets real interesting. Rodger and Elisabeth are close, and Tina and Keith are close. If Colby wins immunity, I can't see Elisabeth betraying Rodger (nor vice-versa), and I can't see Keith betraying Tina (because of how she saved his ass on the pole challenge), but I can see Tina betraying Keith out of necessity. I can also see Colby voting for Keith out of spite. He is royally pissed at Keith and Tina, not only for breaking up the Ogakor alliance, but for changing their votes last night and excluding him from that decision. I think that Colby feels they owe him (for saving their butts when he voted for Mitchell), and he sees the writing on the wall. He is going to be pretty agressive next week, because he knows hes next unless he wins immunity, so politics are pointless.

Keith is not going to make it simply because of the number of past votes against him. Somehow, the final four are going to break down to 2 against 2, and by forcing a tie between Keith and anyone else, the opposing two can eliminate Keith. It's all down to the immunity challenges at this point. But I think that either Rodger or Elisabeth will be in the final two, possibly both of them, and I think that one of them will win. If they're both there, I'd pick Rodger based on how I think the jury will go.
Old 04-13-01, 11:40 AM
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Originally posted by Shoveler

Keith is not going to make it simply because of the number of past votes against him. Somehow, the final four are going to break down to 2 against 2, and by forcing a tie between Keith and anyone else, the opposing two can eliminate Keith. It's all down to the immunity challenges at this point. But I think that either Rodger or Elisabeth will be in the final two, possibly both of them, and I think that one of them will win. If they're both there, I'd pick Rodger based on how I think the jury will go.

That's exactly what I was alluding to in 2 weeks. Keith is screwed unless he wins that particular immunity challenge.
Old 04-13-01, 11:49 AM
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Colby is still my favourite character of the bunch. He knows best to play the game, only he isn't good at thinking forward in terms of alliances. He should've seen T/K backstabbing coming from miles away!. I'm not sure yet how big his chances are. The biggest piece of info right now would be that photo of him, Nick and Jeff in Vegas and his statement that he stayed with Nick at a ranch. If this is true, then it's a clear sign he's gone next time. It's possible however, he planted this on purpose.

This brings me to the ideea of having a leak. While this is obviously possible, remember how on the first survivor people were also able to predict the evolution in the final episodes and nobody was suspecting inside sources. People at survivorsucks are whiners who (for the vast majority) cannot think a bit on their own and they go with whatever "spoiler" makes sense at the moment, such as "uncle cameraman" or even "cbs_employee"!!! Now they believe there's a Jesus guy on some radio station that has predicted (with inside info, true) the whole thing till the beginning.

The voting of Amber became quite logical, once it was almost clear from the previews that Colby is likely to win both challenges. I also thought Colby will go unless he wins imunity, but before the day of the show I was already convinced otherwise.

Right now... I'm not sure what will happen. Simple deduction based on the logic of what people should do does not work since we don't have complete information, we don't really know what the alliances are, although it looks like a clear TERK alliance right now. Will have to wait a bit, check interviews with Amber and see maybe something new slips out.
Old 04-13-01, 12:12 PM
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A QUESTION ABOUT LAST NIGHT'S EPISODE

Okay, this isn't really a spoiler, but it since some people may not have watched the episode yet, here's my question:

Spoiler:
After retrieving the rice, the group proceeds back to camp, only to realize they have no fire to cook the rice. Can they build a fire? Keith says to the group, "No, the matches are wet... They were in the jacket, and the jacket got soaked."

Okay, first off, weren't they waterproof matches?
Second, weren't they in a little cylindrical case to prevent damage? Why would the waterproof matches in a protective case be useless?

What I'm getting at is, was Keith lying or are they all stupid?
Old 04-13-01, 01:27 PM
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Well I think there are leaks. Because the last few weeks the same people including the Boston newspaper has correctly "guessed" not only who gets booted but also Reward winners and Immunity winners alot of the times.

Now as for Colby going next this is what I would want to see, HOWEVER it would be a BIG MISTAKE for Keith. Because obviously if you boot Colby, you would think the next council Roger and Liz will vote together and Tina and Keith would vote together. Which means KEITH MUST win immunity because Rog and Liz would pick him because he has more votes and would lose in the tiebreaker (Tina would beat them in the tiebreaker). So he would be stupid to get rid of Colby now. He should vote out Rog or Liz, THEN COLBY.
Right now I think TINA is the SAFEST. She is FINAL THREE no matter what. And almost a clear choice for FINAL TWO.

Old 04-13-01, 01:47 PM
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Originally posted by briank
Well I think there are leaks. Because the last few weeks the same people including the Boston newspaper has correctly "guessed"
Which cute as a button Survivor lives in Boston????
Old 04-13-01, 02:07 PM
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Originally posted by aob505
By the way guys, they are gonna be revealing the winner differently this time around. Quote from an article:


"None of the survivors knows who's won. The votes cast during the final tribal council were sealed and have been kept under lock and key since the show was shot in the Australian Outback last fall. The vote will be tallied and the winner will be announced live at the show's conclusion.

The finale will air from 8-10 p.m. EDT. Like the first season, it will be followed immediately by "Survivor: The Outback Reunion," a one-hour live show to be hosted by Bryant Gumbel that will feature all 16 survivors."

http://news.excite.com/news/ap/010412/15/tv-survivor

Even if the lockbox theory is true (which it could be), the Survivors talk amongst themselves and almost assuredly have told each other who they voted for. They definitely know.

Old 04-13-01, 05:06 PM
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I also saw Colby 'cheat' during the reward challenge. He clearly had both clips off of the guide ropes at the same time, if only for half a second.

I agree with those who say Colby is gone if he doesn't win immunity next week. He and Nick should have a lot to talk about 'at the ranch' since by the end of next week's episode, Colby will hate Keith even more than Nick. I think Elizabeth will win immunity next week.

I also think Elizabeth will win the whole thing, but she is going to have to vote Rodger off to do it. I explained why I think this in the other thread. Essentially, its just infinitely better for her to go against either Keith or Tina compared to Rodger. Probably Tina I guess.

Incidentally, remeber when, as a joke, a Daily Show commentator reported as fact that Tina won the million dollars? They did this during the week of the first episode. It would be hilarious if they were right.

Finally, if there is a lockbox, which I wouldn't doubt, I think the winner would be clear regardless. Not only would the contestants be able to talk about who they voted for later, amongst themselves, but even if they weren't allowed to do this, it will be clear who is the winner because of who is up there. It will probably be an Ogakor and a Kucha, and Kucha will win hands down.

Kucha: Alicia, Nick, last Kucha, Colby, Jeri (both of whom got screwed by Keith and Tina), and probably Amber (who also got screwed but isn't smart enough to figure that out apparently).

Ogakor: Keith would get Tina's vote, and vice versa, maybe Amber here too.

Old 04-14-01, 12:09 AM
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If Colby wins immunity next week and has brains, he'd side with Rodger and Elisabeth and boot Tina off precisely because she would win in a tie-break, but with a 3-2 vote against Tina, it's Buh-Bye Tina! If you wait until only 4 people are left Tina is guarenteed to make the final 3. Next week is the week to get TINA!

Old 04-14-01, 12:18 AM
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Originally posted by Patman
If Colby wins immunity next week and has brains, he'd side with Rodger and Elisabeth and boot Tina off precisely because she would win in a tie-break, but with a 3-2 vote against Tina, it's Buh-Bye Tina! If you wait until only 4 people are left Tina is guarenteed to make the final 3. Next week is the week to get TINA!

You are absolutely correct on this one.
Old 04-14-01, 03:10 AM
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Re: A QUESTION ABOUT LAST NIGHT'S EPISODE

Originally posted by DigIt
Okay, this isn't really a spoiler, but it since some people may not have watched the episode yet, here's my question:

Spoiler:
After retrieving the rice, the group proceeds back to camp, only to realize they have no fire to cook the rice. Can they build a fire? Keith says to the group, "No, the matches are wet... They were in the jacket, and the jacket got soaked."

Okay, first off, weren't they waterproof matches?
Second, weren't they in a little cylindrical case to prevent damage? Why would the waterproof matches in a protective case be useless?

What I'm getting at is, was Keith lying or are they all stupid?



It's quite simple really. There were leaks.
Old 04-14-01, 12:54 PM
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I've heard that Amber would seriously consider posing in the buff for Playboy. With a little bit of meat on Amber's bones, I know she's looks pretty darn nice! I've always thought Amber was the best looking female for Survivor (even over Elisabeth from a total package standpoint). I can do without Jeri's pictorial though. Elisabeth might been a little too skinny, but I'd stare at her pictorial if she posed for Playboy as well.

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