General Blu-ray News and Discussion - PART 4
12-10-07, 01:40 PM
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General Blu-ray News and Discussion - PART 4
Continued from Part #3
http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=514920
http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=514920
12-10-07, 03:38 PM
#2
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this is an interesting story, from many perspectives...
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
Pali Research's Rich Greenfield has good news for beleaguered Sony (SNE) boss Howard Stringer: His company's Blu-Ray format will win the next-gen DVD format war. The bad news for Hollywood: The existing DVD business is in permanent decline, and the next-gen format won't help anytime soon -- if ever.
Rich predicts (reg. required) that the costly format war between Sony and Toshiba/Microsoft (MSFT) will end in 2008, when Time Warner's (TWX) movie studios stop supporting the HD-DVD format, forcing NBC 's (GE) and Viacom's (VIAB) studios to fall in line. But Hollywood was counting on this format war getting resolved years ago so it could replace slowing conventional DVD sales.
Now, Rich says:
Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008, we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007...With the DVD “halo” gone and digital distribution still in its infancy, studios need to make profitable movies; catalog will no longer save them (particularly, as we suspect most consumers will not be re-buying their existing catalog in next-gen DVD, soon-to-be-known, simply as Blu-ray.
Rich predicts (reg. required) that the costly format war between Sony and Toshiba/Microsoft (MSFT) will end in 2008, when Time Warner's (TWX) movie studios stop supporting the HD-DVD format, forcing NBC 's (GE) and Viacom's (VIAB) studios to fall in line. But Hollywood was counting on this format war getting resolved years ago so it could replace slowing conventional DVD sales.
Now, Rich says:
Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008, we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007...With the DVD “halo” gone and digital distribution still in its infancy, studios need to make profitable movies; catalog will no longer save them (particularly, as we suspect most consumers will not be re-buying their existing catalog in next-gen DVD, soon-to-be-known, simply as Blu-ray.
Time Warner’s New Line and Warner Bros. are the only studios still releasing in both next-gen DVD formats. The downturn in catalog DVD sales is having a particularly negative impact on Warner Bros., given its heavy reliance on catalog DVD sales. The weakness in catalog DVD sales combined with the cost of authoring DVDs in both formats is essentially forcing Warner to give up on HD DVD to speed the uptake of next-gen DVD (Blu-ray) in 2008. In addition, we suspect, Warner’s decision to embrace Video-on-Demand, day and date with DVD (to help its sister company Time Warner Cable) is putting increased pressure on new release DVD sales. Time Warner’s choices (we suspect the later option will be selected soon):
* If Warner Bros. and New Line continue to release in both next-gen formats or choose HD DVD exclusively, the format war is unlikely to end in 2008 (when Paramount and Dreamworks would have the opportunity to swing back to the Blu-ray camp).
* If Warner Bros. and New Line shift exclusively to Blu-ray in early 2008, we expect the format war to end rapidly as Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks will not have enough titles to sustain HD DVD for much longer.
Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008 (we believe a Warner Blu-ray shift will kill off HD DVD within 6-9 months), we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007 (e-mail us if you want a copy of our DVD spending model). A single next-gen format should drive increased consumer interest in next-gen DVD and help the DVD business maintain floor space at mass merchant retailers (such as Wal-Mart, Target, etc…) in 2008/2009.
* If Warner Bros. and New Line continue to release in both next-gen formats or choose HD DVD exclusively, the format war is unlikely to end in 2008 (when Paramount and Dreamworks would have the opportunity to swing back to the Blu-ray camp).
* If Warner Bros. and New Line shift exclusively to Blu-ray in early 2008, we expect the format war to end rapidly as Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks will not have enough titles to sustain HD DVD for much longer.
Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008 (we believe a Warner Blu-ray shift will kill off HD DVD within 6-9 months), we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007 (e-mail us if you want a copy of our DVD spending model). A single next-gen format should drive increased consumer interest in next-gen DVD and help the DVD business maintain floor space at mass merchant retailers (such as Wal-Mart, Target, etc…) in 2008/2009.
12-10-07, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
this is an interesting story, from many perspectives...
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.
12-10-07, 04:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
this is an interesting story, from many perspectives...
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.
Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses
and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.
IIRC, The Paramount news was never really broken early. I think we all knew only hours before the Press Release came out. I was on AVS/DVDTalk most of the night, and didn't hear squat till the early morning. Many Blu-ray insiders (not naming names, but if you have been to AVS you know who they are) were still saying it was false up until the article went up around 10am on Monday August 20th.
Edit:
http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=509626
Here is our thread regarding it. Was started in the early morning (7:30am) and many people still didn't believe it until several articles came out later that day. We didn't know for sure until 12:18pm. I never saw/read the article where the guy above knew this was happening on the 19th.
Last edited by Gizmo; 12-10-07 at 04:25 PM.
12-10-07, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by tonymontana313
Wow! I was skeptical at first with the Lionsgate VP saying it since he would be biased in his opinion but to hear this from the research firm that broke the Paramount story lends a ton of credibility. The only thing is why would this story break out on the eve of the WB's biggest title on HDM yet?
FUD? Maybe they're trying to discourage sales of the HD DVD in order to artificially boost the BD numbers.
12-10-07, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by applesandrice
FUD? Maybe they're trying to discourage sales of the HD DVD in order to artificially boost the BD numbers.
12-10-07, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I never saw/read the article where the guy above knew this was happening on the 19th.
it's a very biased editorial, though the information contained regarding Pali Research managing director Richard S. Greenfield's memo is quoted, so is free from site bias -
"Based on conversations with multiple sources, we believe that Paramount is set to make the vast majority of its catalog available exclusively in the HD-DVD format (unclear whether that includes titles from its sister studio DreamWorks)."
12-10-07, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Burnt Thru
Nikki Finkle's Deadline Hollywood Daily
it's a very biased editorial, though the information contained regarding Pali Research managing director Richard S. Greenfield's memo is quoted, so is free from site bias -
that Pali received inside information regarding the earlier exclusivity agreement doesn't necessarily mean they are similarly placed this time. it does, however, lend a degree of credibility to the story. particularly when combined with the words of the vice-chairman of Lionsgate. these are not lowly placed individuals who can afford to say whatever they wish without repercusions. in the case of an analyst wrong predictions impact negatively on the bottom line, sometimes very harshly.
it's a very biased editorial, though the information contained regarding Pali Research managing director Richard S. Greenfield's memo is quoted, so is free from site bias -
that Pali received inside information regarding the earlier exclusivity agreement doesn't necessarily mean they are similarly placed this time. it does, however, lend a degree of credibility to the story. particularly when combined with the words of the vice-chairman of Lionsgate. these are not lowly placed individuals who can afford to say whatever they wish without repercusions. in the case of an analyst wrong predictions impact negatively on the bottom line, sometimes very harshly.
If WB goes Blu, so be it. If they go Red, so be it. This "war" will be going on for a long, long time.
12-10-07, 05:03 PM
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Getting back on track...
Apparently the new LG 2000 is in stores now (for sale, not counting the demo unit Best Buy has had for a month now). Anyone planning on buying it? Its $999 ($200 more then the Samsung set to street in a week) and no free movies of any kind, from either camp. I don't think its known if its 1.1/2.0 compliant, but it is HD DVD compliant this time around.
Apparently the new LG 2000 is in stores now (for sale, not counting the demo unit Best Buy has had for a month now). Anyone planning on buying it? Its $999 ($200 more then the Samsung set to street in a week) and no free movies of any kind, from either camp. I don't think its known if its 1.1/2.0 compliant, but it is HD DVD compliant this time around.
12-10-07, 05:03 PM
#10
Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
If WB goes Blu, so be it. If they go Red, so be it. This "war" will be going on for a long, long time.
12-10-07, 05:07 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
The same reprcusions the Sony CEO got when he called the format war a "stalemate" a few weeks ago, or announcing Blu-ray has won several times over? Or Spider-Man 3 numbers?
Wasn't it just weeks ago the BDA was making fun of Nikki from HollywoodDeadLine when she announced the Transformers HD DVD numbers? Now she is a trusted source? Color me confused.
12-10-07, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Thats exactly what Ive said. If Paramount said the same thing about WB going HD DVD exclusive, would that be pushed off as FUD or Fact?
12-10-07, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by tonymontana313
But we are talking about a non biased firm reporting this. I'm not going by the Lionsgate VP either.
We can go back and fourth on this if you want, but my opinion will not change on this matter. Until its done, its all rumors and wishful dreams by the Blu camp. Warner should have chosen a side in the summer rather then waiting till after the Holiday season, when many people are going to be choosing a side. How happy will the people be who bought Harry Potter on the format that is no longer being supporter 3 weeks after its release? Paramount had very few films out (and very few announced) when they went Red. I can only imagine the amount of players being returned if Warner chooses a side at CES, which is only a few weeks after Christmas, and within return policy of many stores. You think the Blu side was pissed when Paramount went exclusive with there lackluster catalog, imagine what will happen if Warner does. They are going to piss off a lot of people
Luckily, I'm set either way and will continue to support either side until new releases stop. I love my XA1/A3 and I'm looking forward to buying a Blu-ray SA eventually (or Combo). If WB choosed Blu, and Universal goes Neutral, I'd still buy them in red until the day they stop.
12-10-07, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by tonymontana313
Regardless of what happens, we can all agree that Harry Potter sales are going to play a huge role in what Warner decides to do.
Everything is pretty equal right now on Amazon ranking lists.
12-10-07, 06:37 PM
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Why did GizmoDVD start this thread when he hates blu-ray with a passion and has said he will buy any dual format release on HD DVD till the day they stop making them? Why cant he just bugger off? He is in NO WAY neutral. He is still here, in the BLU RAY thread, downplaying news of BLU RAY items from various sources.
12-10-07, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by QuePaso
Why did GizmoDVD start this thread when he hates blu-ray with a passion and has said he will buy any dual format release on HD DVD till the day they stop making them? Why cant he just bugger off? He is in NO WAY neutral. He is still here, in the BLU RAY thread, downplaying news of BLU RAY items from various sources.
12-10-07, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by QuePaso
Why did GizmoDVD start this thread when he hates blu-ray with a passion and has said he will buy any dual format release on HD DVD till the day they stop making them? Why cant he just bugger off? He is in NO WAY neutral. He is still here, in the BLU RAY thread, downplaying news of BLU RAY items from various sources.
12-10-07, 06:42 PM
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Why do you keep following him around from thread to thread and haranguing him? He has both Blu and HD DVD.
Oh wait did you read Bill Hunt's FUD yesterday?
Oh wait did you read Bill Hunt's FUD yesterday?
By the way... for those of you thinking maybe it makes sense to buy BOTH Blu-ray and HD-DVD to cover your bases, it would frankly be smarter just to buy neither. I know it's tempting for enthusiasts to buy both, but keep this in mind: Supporting both is only going to continue prolonging this format war, when what we all really need is for this thing to end as soon as possible.
12-10-07, 06:48 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
If WB choosed Blu, and Universal goes Neutral, I'd still buy them in red until the day they stop.
It's one thing to buy your preferred format in absence of any knowledge about the length of a studio's format support, but if you knew for certain WB was going Blu exclusive and Uni as going neutral, why would you buy those titles in HD DVD?
Unless their was a cost advantage and/or exclusive feature (IME, U-Control), I can't understand that reasoning.
12-10-07, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by bunkaroo
Can I ask why?
It's one thing to buy your preferred format in absence of any knowledge about the length of a studio's format support, but if you knew for certain WB was going Blu exclusive and Uni as going neutral, why would you buy those titles in HD DVD?
Unless their was a cost advantage and/or exclusive feature (IME, U-Control), I can't understand that reasoning.
It's one thing to buy your preferred format in absence of any knowledge about the length of a studio's format support, but if you knew for certain WB was going Blu exclusive and Uni as going neutral, why would you buy those titles in HD DVD?
Unless their was a cost advantage and/or exclusive feature (IME, U-Control), I can't understand that reasoning.
QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
12-10-07, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I prefer my XA1/A3 over the PS3. I prefer the IME/U-Control, and the fact that I don't have to worry about if my disc will work or not or if I need another firmware update that has yet to come out to play my new releases.
QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
Personally, I prefer my BDP-S1 over my A20 (gasp!), and I've had more issues with my A20 that needed remedying via firmware than my BDP-S1. (My PS3 is a recent acquisition).
12-10-07, 07:04 PM
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Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
I prefer my XA1/A3 over the PS3. I prefer the IME/U-Control, and the fact that I don't have to worry about if my disc will work or not or if I need another firmware update that has yet to come out to play my new releases.
QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
So what did you think about "I know who killed me"? It is on my NetFlix list.
Also, I see you are segregating your titles and putting them at the bottom of your rack where no one can see them. How rude!
(Just kidding)I organize my movies by genre, regardless of Blu Ray or HD DVD. What does everyone else do? Just curious.
12-10-07, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by bunkaroo
That's understandable.
Personally, I prefer my BDP-S1 over my A20 (gasp!), and I've had more issues with my A20 that needed remedying via firmware than my BDP-S1. (My PS3 is a recent acquisition).
Personally, I prefer my BDP-S1 over my A20 (gasp!), and I've had more issues with my A20 that needed remedying via firmware than my BDP-S1. (My PS3 is a recent acquisition).
I will always slant red, no matter how the format war goes down. But that does not mean I hate Blu-ray as I have bought way to many discs in the past few months (and sold them after watching most of them thanks to the BOGO). My current collection on Blu-ray is "set" (as to whats release as of today) with the exception of Bad Santa, while on HD DVD, I could easily buy 20-25 more titles if they had a BOGO.