General Blu-ray News and Discussion - PART 4
 

Continued from Part #3
http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=514920

this is an interesting story, from many perspectives...

Pali: Sony (SNE)'s Blu-Ray Wins DVD War; Hollywood Loses

and from the report itself - registration required
it's worth noting that this is the investment/analyst company who broke the story of paramount going hd dvd exclusive a day before that was announced. in that case it seemed to be a case of inside information. it's not clear if they have similar information this time, though i suspect it is more likely a case of analysing the market.

Wow! I was skeptical at first with the Lionsgate VP saying it since he would be biased in his opinion but to hear this from the research firm that broke the Paramount story lends a ton of credibility. The only thing is why would this story break out on the eve of the WB's biggest title on HDM yet?

Keep in mind, its his prediction, not a fact. No one knows what side WB chooses until they choose a side, which I assume will be a last hour decision (if they make an announcement at CES). Its not like Blu-ray is selling 5x the stand alone and 5x the discs to make the decision easy. Both camps have positives and negatives and will until CES. I imagine WB will look at both software and hardware sales and make a choice based on those facts. Harry Potter will play a big part in this decision IMO. Blu-ray has a 2:1 software lead and a 3:1 player lead (with PS3s counted). I'm really interested to see a number breakdown next Friday.

IIRC, The Paramount news was never really broken early. I think we all knew only hours before the Press Release came out. I was on AVS/DVDTalk most of the night, and didn't hear squat till the early morning. Many Blu-ray insiders (not naming names, but if you have been to AVS you know who they are) were still saying it was false up until the article went up around 10am on Monday August 20th.

Edit:
http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread.php?t=509626

Here is our thread regarding it. Was started in the early morning (7:30am) and many people still didn't believe it until several articles came out later that day. We didn't know for sure until 12:18pm. I never saw/read the article where the guy above knew this was happening on the 19th.

FUD? Maybe they're trying to discourage sales of the HD DVD in order to artificially boost the BD numbers.

Thats exactly what Ive said. If Paramount said the same thing about WB going HD DVD exclusive, would that be pushed off as FUD or Fact?

Nikki Finkle's Deadline Hollywood Daily

it's a very biased editorial, though the information contained regarding Pali Research managing director Richard S. Greenfield's memo is quoted, so is free from site bias -

that Pali received inside information regarding the earlier exclusivity agreement doesn't necessarily mean they are similarly placed this time. it does, however, lend a degree of credibility to the story. particularly when combined with the words of the vice-chairman of Lionsgate. these are not lowly placed individuals who can afford to say whatever they wish without repercusions. in the case of an analyst wrong predictions impact negatively on the bottom line, sometimes very harshly.

The same reprcusions the Sony CEO got when he called the format war a "stalemate" a few weeks ago, or announcing Blu-ray has won several times over? Or Spider-Man 3 numbers? I don't think anyone who has been in the HDM war since the start considers any of the PR stuff to hold much truth. Wasn't it just weeks ago the BDA was making fun of Nikki from HollywoodDeadLine when she announced the Transformers HD DVD numbers? Now she is a trusted source? Color me confused.

If WB goes Blu, so be it. If they go Red, so be it. This "war" will be going on for a long, long time.

Getting back on track...

Apparently the new LG 2000 is in stores now (for sale, not counting the demo unit Best Buy has had for a month now). Anyone planning on buying it? Its $999 ($200 more then the Samsung set to street in a week) and no free movies of any kind, from either camp. I don't think its known if its 1.1/2.0 compliant, but it is HD DVD compliant this time around.

I disagree. If WB chose Blu-ray only, that would give the format 70% of the market. As mentioned in the article linked, Universal and Paramount could not maintain supporting HD DVD long term. They don't have enough day & date titles.

of course there were reprecusions to those statements, and credibility was lost or gained in a variety of directions. fun with numbers (statistics) is an old game and one practiced by all involved in business. deliberately misleading investors/consumers about the future plans of your rivals is a different kettle of fish.

this is a classic example of attacking the messanger instead of examining the information. as i've already stated the memo itself is not editorialized and is therefore not subject to any bias inherent in the site.

But we are talking about a non biased firm reporting this. I'm not going by the Lionsgate VP either.

Again, its that anylsts opinion, not a fact. No one knows what Warner is going to do besides Warner. No one will know until hours, maybe a day before they announce it. Anything else is speculation.

We can go back and fourth on this if you want, but my opinion will not change on this matter. Until its done, its all rumors and wishful dreams by the Blu camp. Warner should have chosen a side in the summer rather then waiting till after the Holiday season, when many people are going to be choosing a side. How happy will the people be who bought Harry Potter on the format that is no longer being supporter 3 weeks after its release? Paramount had very few films out (and very few announced) when they went Red. I can only imagine the amount of players being returned if Warner chooses a side at CES, which is only a few weeks after Christmas, and within return policy of many stores. You think the Blu side was pissed when Paramount went exclusive with there lackluster catalog, imagine what will happen if Warner does. They are going to piss off a lot of people :lol:

Luckily, I'm set either way and will continue to support either side until new releases stop. I love my XA1/A3 and I'm looking forward to buying a Blu-ray SA eventually (or Combo). If WB choosed Blu, and Universal goes Neutral, I'd still buy them in red until the day they stop.

Regardless of what happens, we can all agree that Harry Potter sales are going to play a huge role in what Warner decides to do.

Oh yes. However, again, I believe they will take into account the fact that Blu-ray has a 3:1 hardware lead over HD DVD. If I was a guessing man...I'd say all combined (single versions and boxset) that it will be 1.7Blu :1 HD . I'm also gonna toss in that Warner will be watching to see how many people use the online functions present in the HD DVD version.

Everything is pretty equal right now on Amazon ranking lists.

Not if WB goes Blu, it won't.

Why did GizmoDVD start this thread when he hates blu-ray with a passion and has said he will buy any dual format release on HD DVD till the day they stop making them? Why cant he just bugger off? He is in NO WAY neutral. He is still here, in the BLU RAY thread, downplaying news of BLU RAY items from various sources.

Because no else had started it. Close this down and start another then if you feel so passionate about it. I am commenting on speculation, not news. Don't confuse the two.

And why are you always posting comments about what other people say? I've never seen you post something constructive. If you don't like where the conversation is going, then try to offer something up yourself and direct the conversation elsewhere.

Why do you keep following him around from thread to thread and haranguing him? He has both Blu and HD DVD.

Oh wait did you read Bill Hunt's FUD yesterday?

Can I ask why?

It's one thing to buy your preferred format in absence of any knowledge about the length of a studio's format support, but if you knew for certain WB was going Blu exclusive and Uni as going neutral, why would you buy those titles in HD DVD?

Unless their was a cost advantage and/or exclusive feature (IME, U-Control), I can't understand that reasoning.

I prefer my XA1/A3 over the PS3. I prefer the IME/U-Control, and the fact that I don't have to worry about if my disc will work or not or if I need another firmware update that has yet to come out to play my new releases.

QuePaso, Here is my collection as it stands today (with 6 Blu-ray movies in transit from Amazon). Not sure how I am not Neutral.
http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/7...0909ol8.th.jpg

That's understandable.

Personally, I prefer my BDP-S1 over my A20 (gasp!), and I've had more issues with my A20 that needed remedying via firmware than my BDP-S1. (My PS3 is a recent acquisition).

So what did you think about "I know who killed me"? It is on my NetFlix list.

Also, I see you are segregating your titles and putting them at the bottom of your rack where no one can see them. How rude! ;) (Just kidding)

I organize my movies by genre, regardless of Blu Ray or HD DVD. What does everyone else do? Just curious.

I don't have either play so I can't comment on them. All I know is Ive had an A1, XA1, A2, A3 (2), 360 AO (2) and have never had any issues. I have had an issue with disc rot on a Blu-ray movie (Prestige), and certain Fox titles taking a while to load. I have yet to load POTC:AWE so I don't know if its going to have issue like others are reporting on AVS. I'd love to nab a BDP-1 at at a $200 price...love that motorized door of my XA1.

I will always slant red, no matter how the format war goes down. But that does not mean I hate Blu-ray as I have bought way to many discs in the past few months (and sold them after watching most of them thanks to the BOGO). My current collection on Blu-ray is "set" (as to whats release as of today) with the exception of Bad Santa, while on HD DVD, I could easily buy 20-25 more titles if they had a BOGO.