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Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

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View Poll Results: How will Avatar 2 do at the box office?
It’ll smash records and become the new all-time box office champion
5
7.46%
It will do well, but not huge numbers
47
70.15%
It will do mediocre but big numbers outside the US
5
7.46%
It will do poorly everywhere
2
2.99%
I honestly have no idea
3
4.48%
I’m waiting for Titanic 2
5
7.46%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

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Old 01-08-23, 08:17 PM
  #176  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

It'll be interesting to see the non-holiday drop % later this week (maybe 25-30%?) This time next week it should be close to1.9B.
Old 01-15-23, 02:20 PM
  #177  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

$31.1M for the 3-day weekend, down 32% from last weekend. It'll pass $1.9B global tomorrow, and should break $2B in about a week. 2nd highest (non-expanding) domestic 5th weekend of all time, sandwiched between Avatar and Titanic.

This thing has legs, but they're more like Top Gun Maverick legs rather than Avatar 1 legs. I think it will probably pass Titanic's $2.2B to get 3rd place global box office overall, but it won't get enough to pass Avengers Endgame at $2.8B.
Old 01-15-23, 05:56 PM
  #178  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

And it still has a month to itself. M3gan may have cut into its box office just a little bit since that film is also PG-13.
Old 01-16-23, 08:10 AM
  #179  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by bluetoast
I predict that it will be at least in the top 5 all time worldwide box office, and likely top 3.
This is looking to be the case within the next few weeks.
Old 01-22-23, 09:00 PM
  #180  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Way of Water crossed $2.0B global today, giving Cameron three $2.0B+ films. It should cross $600M domestic tomorrow.
By next weekend, it should surpass Infinity War, and Force Awakens to become #4 all-time.

I'm seeing estimates that it should end up at about $2.3B or $2.4B total, which would make it #3 all-time, ahead of Titanic's $2.2B.
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Old 01-23-23, 08:39 AM
  #181  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

That's crazy. Well done, Mr. Cameron.
Old 01-23-23, 08:55 AM
  #182  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

What's weird is even though it has already surpassed Top Gun Maverick at the Box Office, that film feels like it was a bigger hit - - more enthusiasm, more dominant in the culture, more Oscar buzz.
Way of Water is a huge hit that weirdly doesn't feel like a huge hit.
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Old 01-23-23, 09:03 AM
  #183  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Way of Water was released when the box office seemed pretty dead. It’s blown away the smaller films released against it. I feel like it’s made money because the people visiting the theaters have no other options right now for a “spectacle.” I only saw Way of Water once and I didn’t love it as much as Top Gun Maverick, which I saw 4 times in theaters.
Old 01-23-23, 09:13 AM
  #184  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Decker
What's weird is even though it has already surpassed Top Gun Maverick at the Box Office, that film feels like it was a bigger hit - - more enthusiasm, more dominant in the culture, more Oscar buzz.
Way of Water is a huge hit that weirdly doesn't feel like a huge hit.
I agree. The biggest reason for that is TWoW made $1.5 billion internationally (which is the total WW gross of Maverick). It's a much bigger deal in other places outside of the US (like Asia). People saw it in the US because that was basically the only thing to see in theatres during the holidays and following weeks. I highly doubt anyone who saw TWoW walked out feeling as amazed as they did if they saw Maverick.

I think an Oscar Best Picture nomination for this would be such a waste.
Old 01-23-23, 09:37 AM
  #185  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Decker
What's weird is even though it has already surpassed Top Gun Maverick at the Box Office, that film feels like it was a bigger hit - - more enthusiasm, more dominant in the culture, more Oscar buzz.
Way of Water is a huge hit that weirdly doesn't feel like a huge hit.
Agreed. Another poster (sorry, I forgot who), mentioned how Avatar itself, despite being a top box office draw, didn't really enter the pop culture in a way like Marvel/Star Wars. It was just there, did huge and kind of vanished until Cameron started talking about multiple sequels. And here we are again. While Avatar 1 had the benefit of kicking off a new wave of 3D, Avatar 2 doesn't have that and I feel it will fade faster...

...well, it would have if it wasn't so huge and now we'll get the sequels ever two years to remind us more of Avatar.

Soooo, in the end, maybe it will enter into the pop culture more
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Old 01-23-23, 09:38 AM
  #186  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by dex14
I think an Oscar Best Picture nomination for this would be such a waste.
Also agree, but I felt like that for the first film. Tech-wise, sure. But the story was bland and acting cookie-cutter. Not a BEST PICTURE so I was glad it didn't win.

Old 01-23-23, 09:53 AM
  #187  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Way of Water is a movie that I only see talked about in box office reports. No fandom online, nothing from my friends and acquaintances, hardly any pop culture impact, just no buzz at all. It's just...a movie that is playing at the theaters.

Meanwhile I saw Maverick three times in the theater and it's all anyone was talking about for months.
Old 01-23-23, 10:18 AM
  #188  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Draven
Way of Water is a movie that I only see talked about in box office reports. No fandom online, nothing from my friends and acquaintances, hardly any pop culture impact, just no buzz at all. It's just...a movie that is playing at the theaters.

Meanwhile I saw Maverick three times in the theater and it's all anyone was talking about for months.
Yet someone is seeing it (and paying money to see it multiple times)... just offline fandom? Or just a realization that there's not much worth discussing besides the amazing visuals? I'm honestly not sure.

Besides the leads becoming hot commodities I don't remember much discussion about Titanic either, compared to how many people watched that film. This, however, is definitely an IP they are trying to develop so you'd think there'd be a ton of discussion.
Old 01-23-23, 10:29 AM
  #189  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I've heard plenty of stuff about Avatar 2 from friends Haven't seen it myself though.

I saw Maverick once in theaters, it gets mentioned in passing from time to time.

I see Dune discussed more than either, but it has a lot to do with who you talk to and what websites and/or friends you have.
Old 01-23-23, 10:33 AM
  #190  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by fujishig
Yet someone is seeing it (and paying money to see it multiple times)... just offline fandom? Or just a realization that there's not much worth discussing besides the amazing visuals? I'm honestly not sure.

Besides the leads becoming hot commodities I don't remember much discussion about Titanic either, compared to how many people watched that film. This, however, is definitely an IP they are trying to develop so you'd think there'd be a ton of discussion.
Titanic fandom by nature would be a very small group of people.

What is interesting about avatar is that at least as far as my opinion is concerned everything about it feels rather generic. It's like knock off versions of Star Wars toys for example.

I think this is by design, Cameron wanted the broadest-based appeal possible. While this makes for great box office, it doesn't make for iconography that sticks with you for very long.

Old 01-23-23, 10:36 AM
  #191  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Dune has a built in fandom from the books and the previous adaptations though. I'm trying hard to think of another major new IP that launched post internet that wasn't based on an existing property after, say, the Matrix.
Old 01-23-23, 10:43 AM
  #192  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

I personally would have totally purchased Titanic action figures and playsets.

"With real sinking action!"

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Old 01-23-23, 10:47 AM
  #193  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by fujishig
Yet someone is seeing it (and paying money to see it multiple times)... just offline fandom? Or just a realization that there's not much worth discussing besides the amazing visuals? I'm honestly not sure.

Besides the leads becoming hot commodities I don't remember much discussion about Titanic either, compared to how many people watched that film. This, however, is definitely an IP they are trying to develop so you'd think there'd be a ton of discussion.
I think there was plenty of Titanic talk - that was early internet days but I remember a lot of news coverage about repeat viewings, historical documentaries about the real disaster and a general resurgence of the Titanic story in pop culture.

I'm just amazed that there is this record-breaking property that no one seems to be talking much about outside of the records.
Old 01-23-23, 10:49 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by fujishig
Besides the leads becoming hot commodities I don't remember much discussion about Titanic either, compared to how many people watched that film.
Are you kidding me? Titanic was literally everywhere in popular culture in 1997-1998. It played in theaters for like nine months. The Making Of documentary VHS was a big seller. You can't play the first two notes of "My Heart Will Go On" without everyone over 25 knowing exactly what it is and what movie it's from. Really only Star Wars, Jaws and ET had as big a cultural impact in my lifetime.
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Old 01-23-23, 10:50 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by fujishig
Dune has a built in fandom from the books and the previous adaptations though. I'm trying hard to think of another major new IP that launched post internet that wasn't based on an existing property after, say, the Matrix.
So that'd take away all adaptations (Ie: Hunger Games, Twilight and Harry Potter which were all post-internet books, but books first no less)? The Fast and The Furious franchise and Despicable Me/Minions comes to mind. With stuff like Saw, The Incredibles and Paranormal Activity to a lesser extent.

But Titanic was fucking everywhere for years when I was in High School.
Old 01-23-23, 10:54 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Decker
Are you kidding me? Titanic was literally everywhere in popular culture in 1997-1998. It played in theaters for like nine months. The Making Of documentary VHS was a big seller. You can't play the first two notes of "My Heart Will Go On" without everyone over 25 knowing exactly what it is and what movie it's from. Really only Star Wars, Jaws and ET had as big a cultural impact in my lifetime.
Yup, I couldn't escape that Celine Dion no matter how hard I tried.
My ex at the time had a T-shirt for the movie and we went to see the movie three times over the many months it was in our theater. I'd never seen a movie stick that long.
Old 01-23-23, 11:06 AM
  #197  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

My prediction is this will not bomb.
Old 01-23-23, 11:11 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

Originally Posted by Decker
Are you kidding me? Titanic was literally everywhere in popular culture in 1997-1998. It played in theaters for like nine months. The Making Of documentary VHS was a big seller. You can't play the first two notes of "My Heart Will Go On" without everyone over 25 knowing exactly what it is and what movie it's from. Really only Star Wars, Jaws and ET had as big a cultural impact in my lifetime.
Titanic (and that song) was everywhere but I don't remember much discussion about the intricacies of the plot or anything (I'm not even sure what there is to discuss about it besides the cinematography).

Originally Posted by RichC2
So that'd take away all adaptations (Ie: Hunger Games, Twilight and Harry Potter which were all post-internet books, but books first no less)? The Fast and The Furious franchise and Despicable Me/Minions comes to mind. With stuff like Saw, The Incredibles and Paranormal Activity to a lesser extent.

But Titanic was fucking everywhere for years when I was in High School.
Right, I mean something like Star Wars was created as a movie first, but by the time the internet came about had grown in fandom so much via books and cartoons and toys that there was a built in audience. With Harry Potter, Hunger Games, LotR, Transformers, etc. you have all this lore that hardcore nerds will talk endlessly about. I'm not sure we can expect the same amount of hardcore fandom for Avatar, in fact when I rewatched the original there was a ton of stuff I had completely forgotten about because it wasn't top of mind. Which is why it's kind of amazing to me that this sequel did so well, but good for Cameron.
Old 01-23-23, 11:15 AM
  #199  
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

TITANIC also appealed to a much larger audience than fanboys, e.g. readers of romance novels. Most of the talk about it came from average people, commentators, magazines, news outlets, etc. who wouldn't pay any attention to AVATAR or TOP GUN MAVERICK or the MCU or whatever. The internet wasn't very big back then either.
Old 01-23-23, 11:18 AM
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Re: Avatar 2: Will it break records, bomb, or just go “meh”?

^ If I recall, most of Titanic’s repeat business at the B.O. was teenage girls going to see Leo. I’m not sure a movie has grabbed that demo so strongly before or since.
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