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Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Poll

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View Poll Results: How much will Avengers: Age of Ultron make domestically by Sunday, May 3rd?
$240M +.
4.00%
$230M - $239M.
14.00%
$220M - $229M.
26.00%
$210M - $219M.
20.00%
$200M - $209M.
16.00%
$175M - $199M.
6.00%
$150M - $1174M.
10.00%
Below $150M.
2.00%
Far From the Maddening Twikoff takes #1.
2.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Poll

Old 04-28-15, 08:21 PM
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Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Poll

Originally Posted by Deadline
Get ready to rumble. After launching in 44 markets with $200.2M, Walt Disney’s Marvel Avengers: Age of Ultron is setting foot in the states. Conservative estimates see the film doing safely $200M at the domestic B.O. at a total of 4,247 engagements, but industry estimates see the Marvel superhero team film easily kicking the first Avengers, which owns the highest domestic opening of all-time at $207.4M, aside with a bow of $210M-$230M. Note that $230M is a very aggressive estimate. Says one rival distrib chief, “If the film opens and makes $190 million, and comes in as the second highest grossing weekend of all-time, how can that be anything but great?!”

Age of Ultron‘s theater count of 4,247 is comprised and juiced by 2,761 3D venues, 364 Imax, 400 premium large format, and 143 D-Box theaters (those are the venues that have the motion-sensor seats that move in tandem with the sound of the film; like a theme park ride). Industry confidence for a record bow stems from exhib chiefs’ buzz that Age of Ultron is already outselling Furious 7‘s first weekend ($147.2M) in advance sales by as much as 3x.

Already, MovieTickets.com is reporting that North American advance ticket sales for Age of Ultron are currently 3.7x greater than the 2012 release of The Avengers and 4.6x greater than the 2013 release of Iron Man 3 at the same point in the sales cycle of each respective film. Age of Ultron is also trending #1 for MovieTickets.com with 84% of all tickets sold in the last 24 hours being from moviegoers wanting to see the Avengers assemble again. Internationally, MovieTickets.com’s reports its number one and two markets over the past weekend for the release of Avengers: Age of Ultron were Buenos Aires followed by London.

Over at Fandango, Age of Ultron presales are just off the scales with the ticket agency reporting that presales for the sequel equal the presales for all Marvel Studios Films combined. The ticket seller is predicting a historical weekend, with the film receiving the highest score possible (100 out of 100 points) on Fanticipation, Fandango’s movie buzz indicator. The Fandango survey reports that out of 1K polled:96% are already looking forward to seeing the Avengers: Infinity War” movie; 88% will see Age of Ultron this weekend, while 74% identify themselves as fans of director Joss Whedon.

The conservative estimate of $200M for Age of Ultron stems from its tracking. It’s more than healthy, with a total awareness exceeding 90% in all quads and males tracking in the mid 90s, however, when the numbers get this high, it becomes a splicing-hair situation for box office analysts to settle on a number. 2013’s Iron Man 3 tracked higher than the first Avengers in first choice and unaided awareness, however that three-quel came in lower than Avengers with a first FSS of $174.1M — the second highest bow of all time stateside.

The first 2012 installment had all the superhero powers of 3D, Imax and large format pushing it to the highest opening weekend of all-time stateside with $207.4M, beating the former domestic bow champ, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 which minted $169.2M in July 2011.

Ironically, the first Avengers, though it posted a great Thursday night preview take of $18.7M, didn’t set a record and is in fact ranked No. 11 on the list of top Preview days. That’s because the film launched at 12 midnight. It’s a bit different this time as Age of Ultron fires up at 7 PM on Thursday in approximately 3,500 theaters. Deathly Hallows: Part 2 owns the top preview night on July 14 with $43.5M. That’s not the only record the first Avengers didn’t break: It ranks second among top opening single days with $80.8M to Deathly Hallows: Part 2‘s $91.07M. There are scenarios in some theaters where Age of Ultron will play every hour on the hour for the next 24 hours.

Age of Ultron is the sole frosh wide release this weekend. In terms of counterprogramming from the majors, Fox Searchlight is opening the Carey Mulligan period romance Far From the Madding Crowd at 10 venues in Toronto, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington D.C. Searchlight will add playdates and markets for the Mother’s Day weekend on May 8 then rollout across North America getting to their widest point on Memorial Day Weekend, May 22nd. Critics, who are crucial to the box office of such arthouse fare, adore Far From the Madding Crowd with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 81%.

Based on the literary classic by Thomas Hardy, Far From the Madding Crowd tells the story of a fetching, headstrong young woman, Bathsheba Everdene (Mulligan) who comes into money and looks to revive an estate’s farm. However, three guys wind up going gaga for her and romantic calamity ensues: sheep farmer Gabriel Oak (Matthias Schoenaerts), a sheep farmer, reckless Sergeant Frank Troy (Tom Sturridge), and prosperous older neighbor William Boldwood (Michael Sheen). Industry estimates peg a $50K per theater gross for a FSS in the range of $500K.
http://deadline.com/2015/04/avengers...rd-1201417420/

We've already had a gazillion threads about how this film is going to perform, so this is the time to see where it actually does performs.

I'm predicting $230-235M. Poll is open, live, and will close after the public receives the late-Thursday box office gross is known.
Old 04-28-15, 08:41 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

I'm guessing it'll match the overseas numbers and add a bit more so I went with $210-$219 million.
Old 04-28-15, 09:01 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Anticipation and must-see may have dwindled for some since the WOM suggests this is good, but not as good as the first. I think an opening of $214.7mm is likely, since it'll still crush records no matter what.
Old 04-28-15, 09:55 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

My prediction was $225 in the "AoU vs. Force Awakens" thread, so I'm sticking with that...
Old 04-29-15, 08:30 AM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

I went with the safe choice and picked $150M - $1174M
Old 04-29-15, 10:56 AM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
I went with the safe choice and picked $150M - $1174M
Me too!
Old 04-29-15, 12:35 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

we can't be wrong w/ that choice.
Old 04-29-15, 12:46 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Well, we could, but it is not very likely. So yeah, I went with that too.
Old 04-29-15, 12:49 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

i was checked showtimes for the weekend at the arclight near me and there are 45 showtimes each for friday, saturday, and sunday. i didn't think that was even possible.
Old 04-29-15, 01:02 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by HN View Post
i was checked showtimes for the weekend at the arclight near me and there are 45 showtimes each for friday, saturday, and sunday. i didn't think that was even possible.
Yea. Between regular, Imax 3D and regular 3D, I have 40 (I check out of curiosity). But my 'usual' theater just has the regular 10-or-so.

I'll hit up the theater Sunday morning. It's usually not too bad, regardless of the movie showing.

The place is going to be really messy and loud on Friday and Saturday evening.
Old 04-29-15, 01:15 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

I think I projected 200-220

and I'm going to stickw ith that lol
Old 04-29-15, 01:40 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Per Boxoffice.com:

"Ultron" is responsible for more than 95% of this weekend's ticket sales on Fandango, selling out hundreds of showtimes at theaters across the country and garnering the highest score possible (100 out of 100 points) on Fanticipation, Fandango's movie buzz indicator. "Ultron" was also selected as the summer's most anticipated movie in a Fandango survey of thousands of ticket-buyers.
Old 04-29-15, 01:41 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Check out the lone person who voted under $150 million. I guarantee you won't be surprised. I guess pretending to be a clueless moron regarding box office is also part of the shtick.
Old 04-29-15, 01:50 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

It could rain fire and brimstone this weekend and The Avengers would still make more than $150 million.
Old 04-29-15, 03:13 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by RichC2 View Post
I went with the safe choice and picked $150M - $1174M
Clearly the OP is a dyslexic and illiterate moron.
Old 04-29-15, 04:17 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

AoU will obviously open big, but I expect the final tally to be softer domestically than many people expect. This might be where fatigue sets in if it's as action/CG heavy as some of the reviews suggest.

That fatigue will also impact Ant-man no matter how good (better?) a movie it actually is.

I expect the really interesting discussions won't happen until August because that's when we will have a better idea of how things are shaking out.
Old 04-29-15, 04:24 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

I don't think anyone is going to pin Ant-man's lack of success on fatigue so much as just being lesser known and looking fairly weak.
Old 04-29-15, 04:32 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

I won't be too surprised if the consistent comments I hear are "that really wasn't a bad movie" and "that was actually more entertaining than AoU" and yet the BO performance doesn't seem to scale to those sentiments.

The problem with franchise/brand pictures like Ant-man is that it can't ever be a true dark horse/sleeper. Even if the specific character isn't well known, the brand still is which amounts to a double edged sword. The movie can still be good and totally unrelated in tone and content to Avengers, but if Avengers generates some backlash or ennui, it's not really the next Avengers movie that will suffer as much as it will be the next Marvel branded film.
Old 04-29-15, 04:46 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

$220-229 is my pick. I would not doubt it goes higher however. If there are enough places to see it.
Old 04-29-15, 04:47 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

So what happened to the $1 billion, one hundred and seventy-five million category?
Old 04-29-15, 09:10 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Boxoffice.com is predicting $221 million.
Old 04-29-15, 09:26 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by Ash Ketchum View Post
So what happened to the $1 billion, one hundred and seventy-five million category?
I always imagined there's a point when you stop counting, and the studio people just throw cash in the air while getting BJ's from A-list actresses.
Old 04-29-15, 09:36 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Let's keep in consideration this is NOT the widest release ever (still belongs to one of the Twilight movies), and taking previous the previous highest PTA into account I've seen most estimates putting this at a max opening of $213mm or so. I don't think it's possible to go higher. We'll see.

Let's also not forget there is one of the biggest boxing events ever taking place on Sat night. That could put a minor dent in things, too.
Old 04-29-15, 09:45 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by islandclaws View Post
Let's keep in consideration this is NOT the widest release ever (still belongs to one of the Twilight movies), and taking previous the previous highest PTA into account I've seen most estimates putting this at a max opening of $213mm or so. I don't think it's possible to go higher. We'll see.

Let's also not forget there is one of the biggest boxing events ever taking place on Sat night. That could put a minor dent in things, too.
For some reason, there is a tendency to report Theater Count as Screen Count these days. With some theaters showing it up to 48 times a day, I'm pretty sure this can pull a ridiculous amount. And many of those Best Per Theater Averages aren't filling up nearly that many outside of maybe Grand Budapest Hotel ($202,000 PTA). Though a $202k PTA in 4200 theaters would be an absurd $840m.

Last edited by RichC2; 04-29-15 at 09:54 PM.
Old 04-29-15, 09:49 PM
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Re: Avenged Weekend Box Office Thread (5/1/15 - 5/3/15) with Bonus Pre-Discussion Pol

Originally Posted by islandclaws View Post
Let's keep in consideration this is NOT the widest release ever (still belongs to one of the Twilight movies), and taking previous the previous highest PTA into account I've seen most estimates putting this at a max opening of $213mm or so. I don't think it's possible to go higher. We'll see.

Let's also not forget there is one of the biggest boxing events ever taking place on Sat night. That could put a minor dent in things, too.
If only they could have put that fight into the movie! One of them could be working for the Avengers and one of them for Ultron! Then the boxoffice would really take off!

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