Dr. DVD

^ True, but the fact remains that no movie has ever made more than $84 million on its opening weekend in December. Unless everyone puts their holiday shopping/social stuff on hold, it has a lot going against it. It will still open large, but it has a lot more exterior factors against it (weather, etc.).

majorjoe23

While this will be huge, the Star Wars brand isn't always a license to print money (I assume that's what you meant there), even with films.

Let's now forget Star Wars: The Clone Wars animated film, which made a whopping $60 million worldwide.

RichC2

Movies with legs do better in December. You have far less competition than you have in the summer and most everybody, not just kids, gets quite a few days off during the period. The two highest grossing domestic movies were December releases (Titanic, Avatar).

A monster opening isn't everything. Star Wars will likely open around $140 - $150m and be the biggest opening in December to date, but it won't beat Avengers II in that regard. It has a shot at total gross though, as I think AII will have a good bit of fall off for some reason.

Mr. Cinema

So Force Awakens will top Iron Man 3's $174 million opening? I don't see that happening either. I thought Abrams originally wanted to wait until May 2016 for release. That date might have gotten it closer to $200 mil. I think they'd be thrilled with $150 mil.

RichC2

He listed overall grosses. Though I have my doubts that AoU tops or even gets close to the first Avengers movie.

Matthew Chmiel

Star Wars has the last two weeks of December all to itself. Every studio has moved its December releases out of the path of destruction that film will cause.

Someone already used the Avatar analogy; the film won't have a massive opening weekend, but it will be a non-stop flow of cash for weeks on end.

RichC2

I disagree that it won't have a massive opening. It won't have the most massive opening weekend of all time (Currently the first Avengers at $207m), but it will have a massive opening just the same.

The Top 10 Opening Weekends:

The Avengers: $207.4m
Iron Man 3: $174.1m
Harry Pottery and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2: $169.2m
The Dark Knight Rises: $160.9m
The Dark Knight: $158.4m
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire: $152.5m
Spider-man 3: $151m
Furious 7: $147m
The Twilight Saga: New Moon: $143m

So we can safely guess Star Wars:TFA will gross more than $143m at the very minimum. My guess is it will fall in between Catching Fire and Iron Man 3.

Just for the shits and the giggles, Worldwide Box Office Top 10:
1. Avatar - $2.788b
2. Titanic - $2.186.8b
3. The Avengers - $1.518.6b
4. Harry Potter DH Pt 2 - $1,341.5b
5. Frozen - $1,274.2b
6. Iron Man 3 - $1,215.4b
7. Furious 7 - $1,152.4b
8. Transformers 3 - $1,123.8b
9. Lord of the Rings/Return - $1,119.9b
10. Skyfall - $1,108.6b

Ash Ketchum

"As God is my witness, I'll never be hungry again!"

invisiblegt

Age of Ultron will make close to $225 million.

The Force Awakens will make close to $250 million.

(Mark my words! Or don't... My numbers are based off of nothing except me randomly launching darts at a big board on the wall.)

RichC2

Unless it has "Clone Wars" in the title.

Double_Oh_7

It was supposed to come out May 2015, but when JJ came on board he basically started the script from scratch. There was no way to make that date. December was the next big movie season.

superdeluxe

Even with no Cartoons/No movies, Star Wars Merchandise/Toys was #2 behind the Princess Line for Disney. I think this will be really really close.

RichC2

The most recent report was JJ wanted to move the movie up 6 months to June.

dhmac

One advantage of opening a big movie in December instead of the Summer is a lot less competition, especially in the January thru March timeframe. So a big movie with a huge opening weekend in the Summer Movie season usually falls off in the following weeks as other big movies open, while the opposite is true for December openings.

For example, James Cameron opened 2 movies in December:

Titanic debuted in December 1997 with an opening weekend gross of just $28 million. But it had long legs and virtually no competition for the first few months of 1998 and by the end of its run, it had made over $600 million in the U.S. alone.

And Avatar had its debut in December 2009 with an opening weekend gross of $77 million. It then ran for months and months with little competition and ended up grossing over $760 million just in the U.S.

So the basic rule seems to be: big movies opening in Summer have large opening weekends but shorter legs for the length of their run, while big movies opening in December have smaller opening weekends but potentially long legs for the length of their run.

December openings work best, though, if the movie is actually good and can generate strong word-of-mouth and repeat viewings.

dvdjunkie32

Star Wars will definitely have legs. I can see the fan base going to see it multiple times. I wouldn't be surprised if it stays in theaters for several months.

I'm betting that it will break all box office records. I've never seen anticipation level this high. Unlike Avengers, fans have been waiting 30 years for this movie since the previous trilogy was a letdown. You'll see people camping out on release day for sure.

Rob V

This. 88 Million views of Trailer #2 in 24 hours tells me everything I need to know about the excitement for this film.

I think both will open with record numbers but at the end of the day, SW will prevail by 5% or so.

zero

I have an inside source that assures me Fantastic Four will make more than both movies.

EctoCooler

Fixed.

EctoCooler

It's about the endgame. SW will have little competition in the winter months. Much like Titanic and Avatar.


--

EctoCooler

The Clone Wars release was a failure, as was the 3D release of The Phantom Menace. Also, afi Gone With the Wind is still the most successful film of all-time.

--

DthRdrX

Autotelik

Opening weekend will belong to Avengers 2. December is shopping season, and people might be stuck indoors in bad weather. They'll see Star Wars, but not necessarily during opening weekend.

However, cumulative gross will belong to Star Wars.

Dr. DVD

What's interesting is that regardless of which one does better, the mouse is the one who benefits.

TGM

Avengers will open higher.

However if Episode 7 is good, then Episode 8 will blow the doors off everything.

ytrez

I figure SW has a longer (cinematic) history and deeper cultural appeal than Avengers.