Dr. DVD

I think these are the two big juggernauts of the year, so I am curious as to which you think will open larger. I would think Star Wars, but AOU is a summer release while SW is opening during the busy holiday season. It seems today's youth are more into Marvel movies as they feel burnt by the PT. Also, I think the SW crowd skews a bit older and they aren't as likely to leave the home to go to a movie theater.

kgrogers1979

Star Wars will open higher.

The hate for the PT is overblown. Only nerds on the internet bitch about it. The general public is okay with the PT for the most part. I thought I saw an article about the recent Star Wars digital HD OT being the best selling digital title ever, but I can't find it now. So yeah, only internet nerds bitch about the special editions and PT and crap like that.

I also think you overestimate the age of the typical Star Wars fan. They're not so old that they never leave their house to go to the theater. They're not that old. The Star Wars crowd is probably 40 and under. Not 60 and older...

RichC2

The Avengers will open higher.

But that's just comparing the opening of the last movie ($207m opening weekend) against the previous few Star Wars movies (Episode I: $64.8m, Episode II: $80m, Episode III: $108m).

I think it'll be closer to $198m for Avengers and $155m for Star Wars:TFA this time around.

superdeluxe

Are we talking DOM or WW?

RichC2

I always assume domestic since WW would require both films open in exactly the same territories at the same time which rarely happens.

Mike86

I think its tough to say at this point. I mean Marvel is the hot ticket at the moment and have been on a roll with their films for a while. Plus Age of Ultron is the follow up to one of the most successful films in recent years.

Star Wars is Star Wars though and one of the most successful film franchises of all time. The Force Awakens has the benefit of being the comeback film for the franchise and is bringing us back the original cast which is a pretty big thing.

RichC2

Yeah, unadjusted, The Avengers is the 3rd highest grossing domestic release to date ($623m) behind #1 Avatar ($760.5m) and #2 Titanic ($658.7m).

Of course it's further down when you compensate for ticket prices and inflation, but fuck it. (#4 is The Dark Knight, #5 is Episode I, #6 is Star Wars, and #7 is The Dark Knight Rises).

So it's actually kind of a toss up? If it's a James Cameron, Comic Book or Star Wars movie, you all have a shot at being a top grosser domestically

Ash Ketchum

I suspect that a lot of adults who want to see AVENGERS but will wait it out till later weeks will, in contrast, be first in line for SW. (I'm not one of them, but I know there are millions of them out there.) I'm guessing that Christmas Day will find theaters packed. Whole families will blow off family dinner for this. And kids will be telling parents that this was the best Xmas gift they could have gotten. AVENGERS isn't going to offer that kind of experience.

RichC2

I think opening around Christmas will taper the opening numbers just a little, but it will be absolutely huge over the 2 week vacation period. That's a large part of how Avatar made $760m domestically despite a comparatively modest $77m opening weekend (it dropped a whopping 1.8% the following weekend to $75.6m)

Mike86

I dunno the holidays are a good time to open for films anyways and with this being a Star Wars film I think it'll open big.

DJLinus

Very true. And there's a whole new generation of fans thanks to the current cartoons, toys, games, and stuff. We had a family vacation at the beach a couple of weeks ago and during that time my 8 year old nephew would not shut up about Star Wars. Though he's also really into the MCU, right now SW is his main thing. That kid knows way more about the universe - characters, ships, planets, weapons, etc. - than I ever did and I was super into the movies when they came out. It's actually pretty neat that the franchise has remained so popular for so long. Anyway, my nephew is *really* looking forward to seeing the new movie, his first SW one in theaters. I imagine there are plenty more out there like him.

As for which film will take home more money, I have no idea.

Inhumans99

I have to say, it may be agonizing to wait so long to see Avengers AOU, but my experience with Furious7 bears out that it may be worth waiting until the 3rd weekend to see AOU. I did not plan to wait so long to see F7, but I had a couple of bad weekends due to getting over a mild case of bronchitis, so when I finally saw F7 (this past weekend), it was a great experience with the theater not being fire marshall bait crowded.

The scary thing is, unlike F7, where the third weekend gross was such that you knew there would be room to stretch depending on which showing you went too (I always hit the early bird showing), AOU might still be making so much money that the theater will still be a zoo. I am so impatient when it comes to Marvel Films, but we shall see...the predictions of a 200-215m+ OW weekend gross make me nervous, and I am not a shrinking violet when it comes to movie crowds.

RichC2

Just go to the first showing of the day, on the 3rd weekend it should be around a $40m - 50m/weekend which will be mostly sane.

islandclaws

Given the # of trailer views, pent-up excitement to see the OT characters and the universal appeal of SW that transcends generations, there's just no way I can't see it opening north of $200mm.

johnnysd

Go to a theater with reserved seating if you can.

johnnysd

Wow, I could see this going either way. Star Wars has some very positive hyoe going and if the 2 or 3 real trailers we get before release are as good as the teasers have been it could open huge. I think Lucas not being involved really is pretty huge and the original cast returning is gigantic. As I write this I am starting to think SW.

kefrank

I strongly disagree. There's a huge demographic of kids that are big Star Wars fans right now, because:
1. Their parents are huge original Star Wars fans.
2. There have been and continue to be tons of successful Star Wars universe properties aimed at children (animated series, toys, video games, legos, etc).

The prequel trilogy is a drop in the bucket when it comes to exposure of today's kids to the Star Wars universe on the whole.

Double_Oh_7

Wish I had Disney stock because they're both going to be monsters.

RichC2

Apparently Disney stock went up a gross $2bln after the trailer debuted.

dhmac

I think Avengers: AOU will open bigger than Star Wars - Ep VII: TFA if only because it's a Summer release. Swap the opening dates of these movies and I would vote the other way.

I don't think any December release has ever even cracked $100 million on opening weekend, so I do think Star Wars - Ep VII: TFA will set a new record for a December opening (I predict somewhere north of $120 million), but it will be less than what Avengers: AOU opens with.

RichC2

Correct, the biggest Dec opening so far has been The Hobbit with $84m.

Mr. Cinema

Revenge of the Sith opened to $108 mil about 10 years ago. Adjusted for inflation, that's about $130+ mil. I don't expect The Force Awakens will add an additional $70+ million in ticket sales for the opening weekend. ROTS had to follow 2 previous crappy Star Wars films, so I'm sure it lost some luster, but at the time, it was supposedly the last Star Wars movie ever. You have to factor in weather too. Snow and cold in December, no snow and sunny in May.

The Marvel brand is at an all-time high. Avengers 2 is following the only movie with a $200 mil opening and the most popular Marvel film in history, in terms of box office. 2 of their leads are RDJ and Scarlett Jo. That's a powerful duo. Avengers 2 for the win.

Mabuse

Wow. The numbers don't lie. If $84 million is the record than there's no way SW could best Avengers. Makes me wonder why Disney went with the December release date.

stvn1974

Avengers will open bigger than Star Wars and after all is said and done it will end up like this:

Avatar
Titanic
The Avengers Age of Ultron
The Avengers
Star Wars The Force Awakens

hanshotfirst1138

Whether that's true or not is academic. Everyone will pay to see anything with the Star Wars name on it sight unseen. Add to this the toy sales, kids and parent, nostalgic adults, and the presence of the original cast, and it's going to be through the roof. Avengers is riding a lot of hype right now-the superhero train is probably just at its peak-and it'll do really, really well. But Star Wars is something very, very special. It's appeal crosses pretty much all ages, demographics, and anything else and is woven in to the fabric of the culture.



Age is academic. People who've never been to a movie in years will go and see this. Everyone will.

The Star Wars brand name is a license to print movie. If Darth Vader Takes a Shit in 3-D came out tomorrow, it would have out-grossed Gone With the Wind by the end of the month.