I thought this year instead of just guessing what the final domestic totals will be, let’s break them down into categories. Feel free to make up your own categories and list as many or few movies as you want.

Mega Hit (400+ mil) – Only 15 movies have crossed this line
Genuine Hit – A movie that rakes in the cash
Should’ve Done Better – You made money but should’ve done better
Break Even – They spent a lot of money making it and did okay at the box office but a sequel probably won’t happen.
The little Indie That Could – Every summer one breaks through
Bomb – You spent a lot of money and that is what you came up with?

List of summer movies


Mega Hit (400+ mil) – Iron Man 3 will start what we call the Avengers Bump, it will continue with Capt America 2 and Thor 2 out grossing their predecessors.

Genuine Hit – Fast and Furious 6 will be the highest grossing installment of the franchise, Star Trek Into Darkness will do better than the first, Pacific Rim will start a franchise, The Wolverine, Turbo (kids + NASCAR = $$$), Smurfs 2, Monsters University.

Should’ve Done Better – Hangover 3 is coming off a horrible sequel that will keep people from coming back. Same with Man of Steel, but I think it will help pull the audience back in and MoS 2 will be hit. Despicable Me 2, I just don’t think that many people were asking for a sequel.

Break Even – Great Gatsby and Elysium will just break even due to the budget and types of films they are. After Earth and White House Down will both be mediocre and barely scrape by. Planes looks like a direct to video sequel that is being released as a cash grab. World War Z only because a huge budget.

The little Indie That Could – Before Midnight

Bomb – The Lone Ranger looks bad and I don’t think it will connect. 300: Rise of the Empire seems like it should’ve gone direct to video. Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters should’ve never been made. I think people still have nightmares about Grown Ups, nobody wanted Grown Ups 2. Epic is a tough sell and they aren’t doing a very good job at it. I read something about Magic movies never going well, so I will also say Now You See Me.

I don't see Iron Man 3 making 400 Million in the U.S.

Is there a full trailer out for Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters? The first one was surprisingly entertaining.

I wouldn't count Grown Ups 2 out completely, the first one grossed $162m domestically somehow.

Iron Man 3 - $325 million Iron Man = guaranteed success. The Avengers probably helped some forget how disappointing Iron Man 2 was. I think Avengers will give this film a boost overseas, but I think in the US, it'll fall in line with the first 2 films.

Star Trek: Into Darkness - $360 million This has as much positive buzz as anything releasing this Summer. The first one did around $257 mil in the US and opened around $75 mil. This film should destroy the first one's opening weekend and cruise past $300 mil easily.

Fast & Furious 6 - $250 million Like Iron Man, I don't know how much larger the audience can grow for this franchise. But it'll end up the biggest of the series, until part 7 arrives next Summer.

The Hangover Part III - $265 million Part 1 did $277 mil. Part II, which many hated, did $254 mil. I'll put this one in the middle.

Now You See Me - $95 million I know nothing about this movie except that it's from the director of The Incredible Hulk and features a great cast.

After Earth - $110 million The Smith brand has worn off and I'm going to guess another Night disappointment.

The Internship - $125 million I think this could go either way. This probably would have been a bigger hit if it didn't release 8 years after Wedding Crashers.

Man of Steel - $375 million I'm sold on this one so it's my pick to win the Summer, barely beating Star Trek. Should have a monster opening weekend, and the buzz is positive right now. Batman Begins had to follow Batman & Robin, which is one of the worst films ever made. Superman Returns, while crappy, isn't nearly as bad. I don't think the stench of that film is around 7 years later. WB is probably hoping for at least $750 mil worldwide. If word of mouth is good, then this should be a monster hit for them and will get a sequel rolling.

World War Z - $100 million Another wildcard. And could be hurt by a strong 2nd weekend from Man of Steel.

The Heat - $130 million McCarthy and Bullock should sell plenty of tickets.

White House Down - $145 million I liked the trailer and the King of Hacks is capable of putting together an entertaining product.

The Lone Ranger - $150 million Probably the biggest question mark of the Summer. This likely has a massive budget. Verbinski and Depp have been a profitable combo, but I don't know what the appeal will be. I get a Wild Wild West vibe, but I think it'll do better than that crapfest.

Grown Ups 2 - $140 million Sandler has been mailing it in for years now, but the ensemble will probably help this one be a hit.

Pacific Rim - $65 million I'm going Flop on this one. I thought the trailer was crappy and I'm one of the few on here who doesn't worship Del Toro.

The Wolverine - $215 million The first one managed almost $180 mil despite the bad buzz. This one looks like it'll be an improvement.

$65m - $75m is about right for Pacific Rim domestically, that's in line with Del Toro's other English Language films. It'll do its business overseas.

I think The Wolverine will be middling, around $154m gross domestic.

The Lone Ranger will be a surprise hit and pull $220m+.

Man of Steel will be in line with Batman Begins and Superman Returns and pull around $200m. Unlike Superman Returns though, it will be well received.

Star Trek had a surprisingly huge opening weekend of $75m, I imagine Star Trek Into Darkness will pull around $115m and wind up with slightly over $315m.

Interesting assessments. It'll be fun to compare these with the actual results by the end of the summer.

My only horses in this race are LONE RANGER and PACIFIC RIM, because I love westerns and Godzilla-style giant monster movies. Since I might like them, it's doubtful they'll do that well. (Although every so often something I like in the summer is a hit, e.g. TRANSFORMERS 3: DARK OF THE MOON. But very rare.)

I generally think Man of Steel is going to follow the BATMAN BEGINS trajectory: have a "disappointing" opening ($40-$50 million), but through strong reviews and good word-of-mouth hold on to its audience and finish above the $200 million mark. If the film is good, the audience will definitely expand for MOS2.

If it's a stinker... well... that's it for cinematic Superman (and any Justice League movie).

Pacific Rim will do much better than $65 mil, it'll be a safe movie for parents to take their kids to due to be mostly fantasy violence. I wouldn't be shocked to see it do close to $200 mil.

Iron Man 3 - 375 (3D bump)
Star Trek 2 - 325 No doubt gained more fans the last four years.
F&F6 - 225 One of the great comeback stories will keep going, for now.
Hangover 3 - 215 Last one not well recieved.
Man of Steel - 250 Toss up, odds are it will make less. But I hope it's great.
Monsters U - 235 Popular characters but unexciting concept/story will drag it down.
WWZ - 80 Poor reviews and WOM will kill it...
After Earth - 115 Movie will be mediocre, WOM dismal. Will Smith will need to dust off a franchise sequel...again.
Despicable Me - 250 Minions still popular, but it could follow Kung Fu Panda 2 and gross less.
Lone Ranger - 200 Should be fine but questionable considering the budget (same story as Oz)
PacRim - 90 I wish more than the visuals looked good...
Wolverine - 130 Not feeling this much. Gen audiences haven't forgotten the last one. Fox's marketing feels the same way...
2 Guns - 80 Standard denzel/whalberg stuff.
Elysium - 130 Should play very much like D9
KickAss 2 - 40 Meh, strictly for fans

Iron Man 3- 350 (175 opening)
Star Trek- 375 (150 opening)
Fast and Furious 6- 250 (100+ opening, Universal's first 100 opening)
Hangover 3- 175 (90 opening, fall fast)
Man of Steel- 215 (75 opening)
Monsters U- 200 (80 opening)
WWZ- 50 (25 opening, just like Battleship)
Despicable Me- 200 (90 opening)
Lone Ranger- 150 (75 opening)
Pacific Rim- 100 (45 opening)
Wolverine- 150 (60 opening)
2 Guns- 100 (40 opening)
Elysium- 80 (25 opening)
Kick ass 2- 35 (15 opening)

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say World War Z is going to be a hit. It won't make back its budget but will be popular at the box office. Fast and Furious will do well also.
Man of Steel, After Earth, White House Down, Lone Ranger, and Grown Ups2 will dissapoint.
Hangover 3 is a wild card. Might do well but it all depends on the timing of release.
Just like any of these, release timing is critical, to many action movies released at the same time is bad, to many R rated movies on the same weekend is bad, and so on.

MOS: Under 200million. Getting his butt kicked by a woman won't play well to a macho audience. Cavill doesn't have the right look to bring in a large female audience. Costume looks goofy. Kevin Costner!!

Iron Man 3: 300 million. If it is good! Under if mediocre.

Monsters University: Potential breakout hit if it is funny and receives good word of mouth. This is my prediction to win the Summer.

World War Z: Good opening, then toxic word of mouth sets in.

Grownups 2: No Rob! So why bother?

Lone Ranger: Bombs Ho Silver! You don't pull the mask off old Lone Ranger.

Star Trek: Probably makes a tidy sum, but will dissapoint the fans.

The Wolverine: Probably in the $150mil range.

May:

• Iron Man 3: $350M+.
• Star Trek Into Darkness: $300M+.
• Fast & Furious 6: $250M+.
• The Hangover: Part III: $150M+.

• The Great Gatsby will flop.
• Epic is coming out on the wrong fucking weekend.
• I believe Now You See Me and The Purge could be sleeper hits based upon word of mouth.

June:

• After Earth: $100M+.
• Man of Steel: $200M+.
• Monsters University: $250M+.
• The Heat: $150M+.

• The Internship will flop. World War Z will flop harder.
• This Is The End will be a sleeper hit and fall somewhere in line between Pineapple Express and Superbad's box office gross.
• White House Down could go either way.

July:

• Despicable Me 2: $300M+.
• The Lone Ranger: $200M+.
• Pacific Rim: $200M+. Surprise hit of the summer.
• The Conjuring: $100M+. Surprise sleeper hit of the summer.
• The Wolverine: $100M+.

• Nobody asked for Grown Ups 2.
• I'll be shocked if R.I.P.D. doesn't get delayed... again.
• Red 2 won't gross as much as the first one as it's not a summer film.
• Turbo will struggle to outgross Rise of the Guardians.

August

• The Smurfs 2: $100M+.
• Elysium: $100M+.

• August is a wasteland this year, but I hope A24 gives The Spectacular Now a wide release.
• 300: Rise of An Empire may or may not have a large opening weekend and then have a 60%+ drop.
• Nobody asked for Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters or The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones, just like how nobody asked for Beautiful Creatures and The Host.
• Kick-Ass 2 and The World's End will be sleeper hits.
• You're Next should be moved into the fall. It doesn't help the film's target audience will be at The World's End that weekend.

Iron Man 3 will win the summer, But Hunger Games is going to win the year.

What's R.I.P.D.? I checked the list of summer releases in the first post and there's nothing that matches those initials.

I didn't include it on the list because I expect it to get pushed back.

I get it now. That's the name of the film: R.I.P.D. I thought it was some clever acronym for some sequel to Transformers or something, but it actually stands for Rest In Peace Department. This is from IMDB:
Confusion erased.

The Great Gatsby will flop because every movie that Warner Bros has released on the second weekend of the summer has flopped, since about 2000

I'm sorry, but I just don't see Captain America 2 and Thor 2 outgrossing their predecessors.

Iron Man 3 is tracking better than the Avengers was. While I don't think it'll beat the Avengers box office take, I think it'll easily win the summer.

Every movie that has been released on the second weekend of May has underperformed or flopped regardless of the studio. Warner being of note due to Battlefield: Earth, Speed Racer, etc.

• Iron Man: $318M domestically / $267M internationally
• Iron Man 2: $312M domestically / $311M internationally
• Thor: $181M domestically / $268M internationally
• Captain America: $177M domestically / $191M internationally
• The Avengers: $624M domestically / $888M internationally

Notice a trend?

Here's some advantages:

• Iron Man 3 will be given an IMAX release like its predecessor, but now has the advantage of 3D. It will outgross the first two films, especially if WOM is better than the first two.
• The Iron Man, Thor, and Captain America sequels (alongside Guardians of the Galaxy) are all coming off THE THIRD HIGHEST GROSSING FILM OF ALL TIME.

The Thor and Captain America sequels are guaranteed a clean sweep passed $200M. I don't know if they'll do more than $300M, but Marvel is smart about releasing them outside of the prime winter and summer seasons. They'll have no competition.

Agreed. I think Man of Steel will fall into the category of should have done better. DC and Warner in my opinion have to prove to fans that Superman is worth caring about again with this movie. Just like how Batman Begins had to for Batman. Hopefully it does good but I can see it just being a modest success.

Mega hits:

Iron Man 3. I think after the success of The Avengers this will be big. At this point I think Disney and Marvel would really have to mess up bad for it to not be a mega hit.
Monsters University. It's a Disney/Pixar film, it'll probably be big.

Genuine hits. I can see a lot of films that may fit into this category. Such as:

Fast & Furious 6
The Hangover Part III
Star Trek: Into Darkness

Should Have Done Better:

Pacific Rim
The Wolverine

Break Even:

The Great Gatsby
The Lone Ranger. This could actually bomb but Depp might draw in some fans.
Red 2. I love the first one but it's a bad idea for this to be a summer movie in my opinion.
World War Z. Another I think potentially could bomb but will probably open strong.

Yes, Thor and Captain America grossed the least domestically and almost internationally.

It looks like R.I.P.D. will actually come out this summer, I have added it to the list in the first post.

Shit can happen but there's no way IM3 doesn't take the box office. It would be great if Pacific Rim gives it a run but Star Trek should be #2.