ReduxGuy

That'd be a royal waste if they give it to HBC, especially when Lesley Manville's in the same category.

RichC2

BAFTA Winners:

BEST FILM
THE KING’S SPEECH - Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

LEADING ACTOR
COLIN FIRTH - The King’s Speech

LEADING ACTRESS
NATALIE PORTMAN - Black Swan

DIRECTOR
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - David Fincher

SUPPORTING ACTOR
GEOFFREY RUSH - The King’s Speech

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
HELENA BONHAM CARTER - The King’s Speech

ANIMATED FILM
TOY STORY 3 - Lee Unkrich

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - Aaron Sorkin

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE KING’S SPEECH - David Seidler

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
THE KING’S SPEECH - Tom Hooper, David Seidler, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO - Søren Stærmose, Niels Arden Oplev

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
FOUR LIONS - Chris Morris (Director/Writer)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
TRUE GRIT - Roger Deakins

PRODUCTION DESIGN
INCEPTION - Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat

EDITING
THE SOCIAL NETWORK - Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter

SOUND
INCEPTION - Richard King, Lora Hirschberg, Gary A Rizzo, Ed Novick

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
INCEPTION - Chris Corbould, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Peter Bebb

ORIGINAL MUSIC
THE KING’S SPEECH - Alexandre Desplat

COSTUME DESIGN
ALICE IN WONDERLAND - Colleen Atwood

MAKE UP & HAIR
ALICE IN WONDERLAND - Valli O'Reilly, Paul Gooch

SHORT ANIMATION
THE EAGLEMAN STAG - Michael Please

SHORT FILM
UNTIL THE RIVER RUNS RED - Paul Wright, Poss Kondeatis

THE ORANGE WEDNESDAYS RISING STAR AWARD (voted by the public)
TOM HARDY

Kind of surprised Helena Bonham Carter won over the other nominees, but am not surprised at the other wins. Was happy to see them award Editing and Directing to Social Network. I suspect it could go either way between Rush and Bale for Best Supporting Actor (if King's Speech is in sweep mode, Rush will win, if not, Bale will win.)

Mr. Cinema

I think Bale and Leo definitely take the Oscar. The British like to award their own. Last year Jeff Bridges was a 100% lock for the Oscar and they gave their award to Firth. This does look similar to what we could see on Oscar night with TKS and TSN sharing the bigger awards. I want TSN winning the whole thing, but I'd be happy with Director, Editing and Screenplay. The Fincher win is big and I think puts him back on top. I think it'll be one of those years where the DGA gets it wrong. The British recognized 3 actors from TKS and still picked Fincher over their hometown choice, Hooper.

I think the night will go one of 2 ways. Either a big TKS sweep, where it picks up Director, Supporting Actor, and a couple more awards, or it's a very balanced night where it has BP, Actor, and Writing, and....what else? I'm assuming TSN still is the favorite for Score, and costumes could go to Alice in Wonderland. However, I think the Academy will give Costumes to TKS because they won't want Alice to win anything. I'm sticking with Inception for Art Direction over TKS.

I guess TKS could win Sound Mixing, as was the case in 2008 when Slumdog won for Mixing over The Dark Knight.

JumpCutz

Wow. Fincher with the BAFTA nod? Interesting indeed.

Dr. DVD

Would it now be safe to say that Portman is a shoo-in for Best Actress, given that she's won just about everything? I really fail to see how Annette Benning could be considered having odds in her favor at this point.

JumpCutz

Yes. She's (almost) as close to a mortal lock as Firth is in the Best Actor category.

Solid Snake

....who was a massive lock for their award across multiple nominations for the same category in the past? I want to say DDL but maybe Cristolph Waltz beat him in that category.

hardercore

Aaron Sorkin's run has probably been the most comprehensive in my time keeping tabs on these things. Heath Ledger was in the same league in 2008/09, though he, Waltz, and Bardem for No Country had similar dominance over 3 consecutive years.

Martin Scorsese with the Directing category in 2006/07 was also very thorough.

Drexl

I think Monique was a pretty strong lock last year too.

Rypro 525

wasn't Rourke considered a lock by most?

Drexl

He was a strong candidate, but I think the buzz was that it was pretty close between him and Penn. Penn may have been a slight favorite.

One instance I can remember when a "lock" didn't win is Lauren Bacall for The Mirror Has Two Faces, who lost to Juliette Binoche for The English Patient.

Mr. Cinema

Wally Pfister (Inception) won the ASC Award (Cinematography). Will Deakins be denied again?

Mr. Cinema

This to me looks like one of the tougher years to pick winners. The King's Speech, The Social Network, and Inception all could end up with multiple wins. It could be a year where the BP winner doesn't have the most wins. Inception realistically could win Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. Obviously The King's Speech is the main competition for Original Screenplay, but Inception has been picking up momentum lately. Could be a similar year in 1999 when The Matrix took home 4 Oscars and was only 2nd to American Beauty's 5.

Even though the BP winner can win Sound Mixing, as Slumdog did a couple years ago, I'm going to stick with Inception sweeping the sound categories. I think King Kong was the last to do that. There are definitely some interesting combinations that could work out.

We could see those 3 with 4 wins each as well. Should be an interesting evening.

Geofferson

I hope not, but seems to be a real possibility.

RichC2

Inception will likely win Best Sound, Sound Effects, and Visual Effects. Unlike the Matrix though, it isn't nominated for Best Editing and can't win that.

Inception very well could receive and win 4 awards, but the Sound/Visual awards aren't considered major categories. Matrix winning Best Editing was the only real surprise for that one (I'm glad it shut out Episode I). I imagine it will win 2 or 3.

Inception nominations:
Best Achievement in Art Direction -- Will probably go to Alice in Wonderland in recognition of breaking $1b worldwide
Best Achievement in Cinematography -- Will likely go to Deakins
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score -- if TKS sweeps, it will win this. Inception, HTTYD, and TSN are far more deserving.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing -- Inception
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing -- Inception or TSN
Best Achievement in Visual Effects -- Inception
Best Motion Picture of the Year -- TKS or TSN
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen - TKS

Greg MacGuffin

Statistically/historically, whatever wins Cinematography typically goes on to win Best Picture. I think last year was one of the few exceptions to that rule.

RichC2

I have no idea where you got that stat from.

Since 2000, only one Best Cinematography winner went on to win Best Picture (Slumdog Millionaire).

Best Cinematography Winners: 2000: Peter Pau – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon 2001: Andrew Lesnie – The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring 2002: Conrad Hall – Road to Perdition (posthumous award) 2003: Russell Boyd – Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World 2004: Robert Richardson – The Aviator 2005: Dion Beebe – Memoirs of a Geisha 2006: Guillermo Navarro – Pan's Labyrinth 2007: Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood 2008: Anthony Dod Mantle – Slumdog Millionaire 2009: Mauro Fiore – Avatar

Best Picture Winners: 2000: Gladiator 2001: A Beautiful Mind 2002: Chicago 2003: The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King 2004: Million Dollar Baby 2005: Crash 2006: The Departed 2007: No Country for Old Men 2008: Slumdog Millionaire 2009: The Hurt Locker

MoviePage

Edit: Beaten to the punch!

I think this is one of those rules that used to be true, through the 90s at least, but there's pretty good evidence that things are changing. The last 10 winners of the Best Cinematography Oscar (with a * for movies that also took Best Picture):

Avatar
*Slumdog Millionaire
There Will Be Blood
Pan's Labyrinth
Memoirs of a Geisha
The Aviator
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Road to Perdition
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Groucho

No. Are you thinking of Editing maybe?

Mr. Cinema

I think Inception will take Art Direction. It beat Alice in Wonderland at the BAFTAs and at the Art Director's Guild.

Daytripper

Did you hear about some of the slack Leo is getting having her own promo pictures snapped and then publishing them on her own? For those "for your consideration" ads? A few are calling it "desperate" and "over the top". I see nothing wrong with it. They were more glamour shots of her to show women at 50 could be beautiful and talented in Hollywood. I thought the pictures were quite nice. But some say it definitely hurt her chances a little for being "the lock".

Count Dooku

MoviePage

I don't think it will hurt much in the long run, maybe a few votes but definitely not enough to cost her the Oscar. As David Poland put it last week, "if you were going to vote for Melissa Leo and are considering not voting for her because of these ads, you are an ass."

Also, I think you mean "flack," not "slack."

conscience

This is has been confusing me all awards season. Her performance is fine - a little too subtle but fine. But to win over Lesley Manville for this? And to even get nominated over Manville at all at these shows? Whatever. TKS is great but her recognition is just too much.

Traxan

I just want this over. I live in L.A. and it's the silly season here. You can't listen to radio without hearing incessant ads for Inception, TSN and The King's Speech, and my God, the reviews are the most ludicrous, inane stupidity I've ever heard. It's so obvious these reviews were written to be quoted because no one, not even Pauline Kael, was this full of themself. Some time I'll record and transcribe one of the really offensive ones for Inception. I could cockpunch whoever wrote that one.