kefrank

Since you expressed that exact opinion almost a month before ever seeing the movie, I find it hard a little hard to believe you were able to truly watch the movie with an open mind. Can you really blame me?

I don't disagree with any of your statements about the themes of The Social Network or that it's a great film. I do disagree with your reduction of The King's Speech to being only about "whether or not King George can get through a speech without stuttering." That's similar to saying The Social Network is only about "whether or not Zuckerberg will have his friend request accepted by the girl who broke up with him."

My contention is that you were incapable of being more impressed, because your opinion of the movie was already decided.

Heh, I'm actually not angry at all. If anger is coming across in my posts, then I'm not expressing myself very clearly. Furthermore, my latest post did not address the Best Director category. I think Fincher probably deserves to win there, but I also didn't find as much to fault with the direction in The King's Speech as some did.

That's fine, but this statement actually reaffirms your lack of objectivity in regard to the King's Speech.

I'm actually not at all bothered that you didn't personally like The King's Speech as much as The Social Network. If I'm bothered by anything, it's simply that you dismissed The King's Speech before ever seeing it.

Mr. Cinema

That statement was accurate. The majority of the guilds went with the film where the main character overcomes a disability and beats the odds, thus giving them that warm, fuzzy feeling inside. That's a safe formula to win an Oscar.

kefrank

Well, I'm referring to the assessment of the film itself, not the accuracy of what types of films win awards. And that's really the crux of my whole involvement in this discussion. I don't think The King's Speech should be given extra points nor given demerits simply because it's a "feel good story about overcoming adversity" or something that gives the viewer warm fuzzies. To dismiss it simply for that reason is as unfair as dismissing The Social Network simply because the backdrop of the story is the modern phenomenon of social networking.

Frankly, neither film tells a story that, when generalized enough, is particularly original. We've seen plenty of movies (and even some Best Picture winners) about a figure's rise to prominence laced with betrayal, greed, insecurity, and alienation. (The most obvious example is The Godfather). What separates narrative movies from each other is not the general nature of the story, but how the story is told, and The King's Speech is a prime example of storytelling that is nearly flawless. The storytelling of The Social Network is also very good - I just didn't find it to be quite as well-executed. And I was actually very surprised by my reaction to both. On paper, I'm usually much more drawn to films along the thematic lines of The Social Network than The King's Speech (and although Fincher tends to be hit-or-miss with me, the hits are among my favorite films).

I have no problem with the fact that we have a difference of opinion. My bone of contention is with fact that your opinion on one of the films was (apparently) heavily influenced by outside factors and not the film's own merits.

But hey, Inception was the movie I actually enjoyed the most this year, so I'm pulling for an impossible (and undeserved) buzzer beater Best Picture upset anyway.

Groucho

That "formula" hasn't applied to a best picture winner in almost 10 years.

RichC2

Bullshit. How did the ending of No Country For Old Men or The Depahted not give you the warm and fuzzies?

Both Crash and Slumdog sort of fit that "oscar" formula, though Slumdog didn't really feel like oscar bait.... Crash on the other hand...

Groucho

I didn't really understand The Departed until they showed us the rat. "Ah, now I get it!"

A similarly condescending scene is in The Social Network (the friend request refresh).

Count Dooku

A website called Movie Gamut has offered up Oscar predictions based on some sort of statistical analysis.

Here's a link to the website http://www.moviegamut.com/2011/02/fi...ntdown.html#02

Here's a link to the stats explainer http://www.moviegamut.com/2010/10/os...del-works.html

Here are the site's predictions with %s rounded

The Social Network for Best Picture 85%
Colin Firth 87%
Natalie Portman 100%
Christian Bale 93%
Melissa Leo 51%, H B Carter 34%
David Fincher 81%

Mr. Cinema

Costume Design Guild winners:

Jenny Beavan won excellence in period film for “The King’s Speech,” while Amy Westcott earned her award for excellence in contemporary film for “Black Swan” and Colleen Atwood for excellence in fantasy film for “Alice in Wonderland.

Mr. Cinema

From Deadline's Pete Hammond:

"I’ve learned 2-time Oscar winner and Academy favorite Tom Hanks will be the first presenter and name winners in both the Art Direction and Cinematography categories right off the bat. Best Picture frontrunner The King’s Speech is up for both, so the world will quickly get an idea whether that Best Picture nominee is able to mount a sweep right in the first few minutes of Sunday’s Oscar show."

junglalien

<object width="512" height="328" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" id="ordie_player_3eb570fc6e"><param name="movie" value="http://player.ordienetworks.com/flash/fodplayer.swf" /><param name="flashvars" value="key=3eb570fc6e" /><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed width="512" height="328" flashvars="key=3eb570fc6e" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" quality="high" src="http://player.ordienetworks.com/flash/fodplayer.swf" name="ordie_player_3eb570fc6e" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object>

jfoobar

FWIW, 2011 Oscar Prediction cheat sheet.

http://nextround.net/2011/02/2011-os...et-infographic

Too big to embed.

hardercore

A last look at how things stand. I don't know why but I am getting an inkling that The Social Network might upset for the big prize – even though I'm too much of a pussy to call it. My personal picks in red.


Picture
1. The Social Network [216] WGA, ACE, MPSE, NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, BFCA, GG, SAG*, PGA*, DGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CAS*, CDG*, AFI**, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, OFCC, KCFC, VFCC, IFCA, LFCC, BATFA*, UFCA**
2. The King’s Speech [122] PGA, DGA, SAG, ADG, CDG, BAFTA, ACE*, ASC*, NBR*, BIFA, PFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, SEFCA***
3. Inception [120] WGA, VES, ADG, ASC, MPSE, PGA*, DGA*, ACE*, CAS*, CDG*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BATFA*, COFC, INFC***
4. Black Swan [82] ADG, CDG, SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ACE*, ASC*, CAS*, MPSE*, AFI**, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BATFA*, TFCA***
5. True Grit [50] CAS, PGA*, WGA*, ASC*, ADG*, CDG*, MPSE*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
6. Toy Story 3 [44] PGA, ACE, BSFC***, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*
7. The Fighter [38] SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, DGA*, ACE*, ADG*, CDG*, AFI**, NBR*, BFCA*, GG*
8. 127 Hours [24] PGA*, WGA*, ADG*, MPSE*, AFI**, BFCA*, UFCA**
9. The Kids Are All Right [22] SAG*, PGA*, WGA*, ACE*, AFI**, GG*
10. Winter’s Bone [20] AFI**, NBR*, GIFA, SDFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*, NSFC*


Director
1. David Fincher/The Social Network [128] NBR, BSFC, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, BFCA, GG, BAFTA, DGA*, LAFCA**, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, TFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, OFCC, VFCC, IFCA, LFCC, SFFCC**, UFCA**
2. Tom Hooper/The King’s Speech [28] DGA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
3. Darren Aronofsky/Black Swan [28] DGA*, BSFC***, SDFCS, AFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*, SFFCC**, TFCA***
4. David O. Russell/The Fighter [6] DGA*, GG*
5. Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit [2] BFCA*


Actor
1. Colin Firth/The King’s Speech [124] SAG, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, BFCA, GG, BAFTA, BSFC***, NSFC***, BIFA, WAFCA, SEFCA, SFFCC, DFCS, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, PFCS, KCFC, VFCC, IFCA, LFCC, TFCA***
2. Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network [48] NBR, BSFC, NSFC, SAG*, TFCA, HFCA, OFCC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
3. James Franco/127 Hours [38] SAG*, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, UFCA, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
4. Jeff Bridges/True Grit [10] SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
10. Javier Bardem/Biutiful [2] BAFTA*

Actress
1. Natalie Portman/Black Swan [116] SAG, BSFC, CFCA, BFCA, GG, BAFTA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, IFCA, TFCA***
2. Annette Bening/The Kids are All Right [38] NYFCC, GG, LFCC, SAG*, BSFC***, NSFC***, BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
3. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter’s Bone [38] SAG*, LAFCA***, WAFCA, TFCA, SDFCS, DFCS, VFCC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
4. Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine [12] SFFCC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
5. Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole [8] SAG*, BFCA*, GG*

Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale/The Fighter [130] SAG, NBR, BSFC, CFCA, GG, BFCA*, NSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, LVFCS, DFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, VFCC, IFCA, SEFCA***, TFCA***, BAFTA*
2. Geoffrey Rush/The King’s Speech [44] NSFC, BAFTA, SAG*, LAFCA***, BIFA, SEFCA, COFC, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right [18] NYFCC, SAG*, BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
4. John Hawkes/Winter’s Bone [16] SAG*, SFFCC, SDFCS, CFCA*, INFC***
5. Jeremy Renner/The Town [10] SAG*, BFCA*, GG*, NSFC*

Supporting Actress
1. Melissa Leo/The Fighter [82] SAG, NYFCC, BFCA, GG, BSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, DFWFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, PFCS, IFCA, INFC***, CFCA*, NSFC*, SEFCA***, TFCA***
2. Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit [46] CFCA, SAG*, INFC, SEFCA, TFCA, HFCA, AFCA, KCFC, COFC, VFCC, BFCA*
3. Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom [32] NBR, LAFCA, SFFCC, UFCA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, NSFC*
4. Amy Adams/The Fighter [26] SAG*, NSFC***, LVFCA, DFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*, TFCA***
5. Helena Bonham Carter/The King’s Speech [22] BAFTA, SAG*, BIFA, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*


Screenplay, Adapted
1. Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network [178] WGA, NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, NYFCC, CFCA, NSFC, BFCA, GG, BAFTA, USC, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, SEFCA, SFFCC, TFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, FFCC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, VFCC, LFCC, IFCA,
2. Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit [14] WGA*, FCA*, CFCA*, USC*, BAFTA*, TFCA***
3. Simon Beaufoy & Danny Boyle/127 Hours [12] WGA*, BFCA*, GG*, USC*, BAFTA*
4. Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter’s Bone [8] BFCA*, CFCA*, USC*, SEFCA***
5. Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3 [6] BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*

Screenplay, Original
1. Christopher Nolan/Inception [58] WGA, CFCA, WAFCA, FFCC, OFCC, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, INFC***, BFCA*, GG*, BAFTA*, SEFCA***
2. David Seidler/The King’s Speech [46] BFCA, BAFTA, LAFCA***, NSFC***, BIFA, SEFCA, SFFCC, SLGFC, GG*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right [12] WGA*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
4. Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter [8] WGA*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
5. Mike Leigh/Another Year [2] BFCA*


Animated
1. Toy Story 3 [150] PGA, ACE, NBR, BSFC, LAFCA, CFCA, BFCA, GG, BAFTA, AA*, WAFCA, NYFCO, SEFCA, SFFCC, LVFCS, DFWFCA, HFCA, SLGFC, AFCA, OFCC, UFCA, PFCS, KCFC, COFC, INFC***, TFCA***
2. How To Train Your Dragon [36] AA, INFC, TFCA, PGA*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*, SEFCA***
3. The Illusionist [28] NYFCC, BSFC***, LAFCA***, AA*, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*

Documentary
1. Exit Through the Gift Shop [60] CFCA, LAFCA***, NSFC***, WAFCA, NYFCO, INFC, TFCA, SDFCS, AFCA, OFCC, KCFC, COFC, VFCC, SEFCA***, BFCA*
2. Inside Job [40] NYFCC, NSFC, PGA*, WGA*, BSFC***, SEFCA, NBR*, BFCA*, CFCA*, TFCA***
3. Restrepo [14] HFCA, PFCS, NBR*, BFCA*, CFCA*
4. Gasland [4] WGA*
5. Waste Land

Foreign Film
1. Mexico/Biutiful [22] WAFCA, DFWFCA, PFCS, BFCA*, GG*, CFCA*, INFC***, SEFCA***
2. Denmark/In A Better World [8] GG
3. Canada/Incendies
3. Greece/Dogtooth
3. Algeria/Outside The Law


Music (Score)
1. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross/The Social Network [32]BSFC, GG, LAFCA**, LVFCS, SLGFC, BFCA*, CFCA*
2. Hans Zimmer/Inception [30] BFCA, WAFCA, HFCA, PFCS, COFC, GG*, CFCA*, BAFTA*, IFMCA*
3. Alexandre Desplat/The King’s Speech [14] BAFTA, BFCA*, GG*, IFMCA*
4. John Powell/How to Train Your Dragon [4] BAFTA*, IFMCA*
5. A.R. Rahman/127 Hours [4] GG*, BAFTA*

Music (Song)
1. If I Rise/127 Hours [8] BFCA
2. I See The Light/Tangled [8] LVFCS, BFCA*, GG*
3. We Belong Together/Toy Story 3 [2] BFCA*
4. Coming Home/Country Strong [2] GG*


Editing
1. The Social Network [28] ACE, BAFTA, BFCA*
2. Black Swan [16] BSFC, ACE*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
3. The King’s Speech [6] ACE*, BAFTA*
4. The Fighter [4] ACE*
5. 127 Hours [4] BFCA*, BAFTA*

Sound Mixing
1. Inception [20] BFCA, BAFTA, CAS*
2. True Grit [18] CAS, BAFTA*
3. The Social Network [6] CAS*, BFCA*
4. The King’s Speech [2] BAFTA*
5. Salt

Sound Editing
1. Inception [32] MPSE, BAFTA, BFCA
2. True Grit [6] MPSE*, BAFTA*
3. TRON Legacy [4] MPSE*
3. Unstoppable [4] MPSE*
5. Toy Story 3 [2] BFCA*

Visual Effects
1. Inception [42] VES, BAFTA, BFCA, LVFCS, PFCS, SLGFC*
2. Alice in Wonderland [6] VES*,BFCA*
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [6] VES*, BFCA*
4. Iron Man 2 [4] VES*
5. Hereafter


Cinematography
1. Wally Pfister/Inception [56] ASC, CFCA, BFCA, WAFCA, SDFCS, LVFCS, HFCA, FFCC, BAFTA*, SEFCA***
2. Roger Deakins/True Grit [48] BSFC, NSFC, BAFTA, ASC*, LAFCA***, SEFCA, SLGFC, PFCS, BFCA*, CFCA*
3. Matthew Libatique/Black Swan [46] LAFCA, NYFCC, ASC*, BSFC***, NSFC***, NYFCO, SFFCC, AFCA, BFCA*, CFCA*, BAFTA*
4. Danny Cohen/The King’s Speech [8] ASC*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
5. Jeff Cronenweth/The Social Network [6] ASC*, CFCA*

Art Direction
1. Inception [48] ADG, LAFCA, BFCA, BAFTA, WAFCA, FFCC, PFCS
2. The King’s Speech [24] ADG, LAFCA***, BFCA*, BAFTA*
3. Alice In Wonderland [8] ADG*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
3. True Grit [8] ADG*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I [4] ADG*

Costume Design
1. Alice in Wonderland [40] CDG, BFCA, BAFTA, LVFCS, PFCS
2. The King’s Speech [20] CDG, BFCA*, BAFTA*
2. True Grit [8] CDG*, BFCA*, BAFTA*
4. The Tempest [4] CDG*
5. I Am Love

Makeup
1. Barney’s Version
1. The Way Back
1. The Wolfman


Hauls:
The Kings Speech - 5 wins - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Costume Design
The Social Network - 4 wins - Director, Screenplay, Editing, Score
Inception - 4 wins - Art Direction, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Toy Story 3 - 2 wins - Animated Film, Song
Black Swan - 1 win - Actress
The Fighter - 1 win - Supporting Actor
True Grit - 1 win - Cinematography
Exit Through The Gift Shop - 1 win - Documentary
In A Better World - 1 win - Foreign Film
Barney's Version - 1 win - Makeup

RichC2

As long as Fincher wins director I don't care what wins Picture.

Mr. Cinema

I'm holding out a bit of hope that The Social Network can pull of an upset. I think the fact that there are so many strong films may actually help it. The supporters of Black Swan and Inception, and maybe some of The Fighter could help TSN out. There could be more of them listing TSN higher than The King's Speech on their rankings. But it'll need alot of those votes to pull of an upset.

TKS will likely have more #1 votes, so TSN will need those #2-#5 votes. All depends I guess on how many non-TKS fans rank TSN higher.

But I don't think voters are even required to rank all 10. We could have plenty of #1 TKS votes and nothing else listed.

Patman

I'm basically going chalk on the Oscar picks:

Picture
The King’s Speech

Director
David Fincher/The Social Network

Actor
Colin Firth/The King’s Speech

Actress
Natalie Portman/Black Swan

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale/The Fighter

Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo/The Fighter

Screenplay, Adapted
Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network

Screenplay, Original
David Seidler/The King’s Speech

Animated
Toy Story 3

Foreign Film
Incendies/Canada

Music (Score)
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross/The Social Network

Music (Song)
We Belong Together/Toy Story 3

Editing
The Social Network

Sound Mixing
Inception

Sound Editing
Inception

Visual Effects
Inception

Cinematography
Roger Deakins/True Grit

Art Direction
Alice In Wonderland

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland

Makeup
The Wolfman

Animated Short:
Day & Night

Live Action Short
Na Wewe

Documentary
Inside Job

Documentary Short
Strangers No More

gryffinmaster

Obviously it's not going to sway the way things are locked in at this point, but the Independent Spirit Awards took place last night:


Best Feature

“127 Hours”
“Black Swan”
“Greenberg”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“Winter’s Bone”

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
Danny Boyle, “127 Hours”
Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”
Debra Granik, “Winter’s Bone”
John Cameron Mitchell, “Rabbit Hole”

Best First Feature

“Everything Strange and New”
“Get Low”
“The Last Exorcism”
“Night Catches Us”
“Tiny Furniture”

John Cassavetes Award

“Daddy Longlegs”
“Lbs.”
“Lovers of Hate”
“Obselidia”
“The Exploding Girl”

Best Screenplay

Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, “The Kids Are All Right”
Debra Granik and Anne Roselini, “Winter’s Bone”
Nicole Holofcener, “Please Give”
David Lindsay-Abaire, “Rabbit Hole”
Todd Solondz, “Life During Wartime”

Best First Screenplay

Diane Bell, “Obselidia”
Lena Dunham, “Tiny Furniture”
Nik Fackler, “Lovely, Still”
Robert Glaudini, “Jack Goes Boating”
Dana Adam Shapiro and Evan M. Wiener, “Monogamy”

Best Female Lead

Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Greta Gerwig, “Greenberg”
Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

Best Male Lead

Ronald Bronstein, “Daddy Longlegs”
Aaron Eckhart, “Rabbit Hole”
James Franco, “127 Hours”
John C. Reilly, “Cyrus”
Ben Stiller, “Greenberg”

Best Supporting Female

Ashley Bell, “The Last Exorcism”
Dale Dickey, “Winter’s Bone”
Allison Janney, “Life During Wartime”
Daphne Rubin-Vega, “Jack Goes Boating”
Naomi Watts, “Mother and Child”

Best Supporting Male

John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Samuel L. Jackson, “Mother and Child”
Bill Murray, “Get Low”
John Ortiz, “Jack Goes Boating”
Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Foreign Film

“The King’s Speech”
“Kisses”
“Mademoiselle Chambon”
“Of Gods and Men”
“Uncle Boomhee Who Can Recall His Past Lives”

Best Documentary

“Exit Through the Gift Shop”
“Marwencol”
“Restrepo”
“Sweetgrass”
“Thunder Soul”

Best Cinematography

Adam Kimmel, “Never Let Me Go”
Matthew Libatique, “Black Swan”
Jody Lee Lipes, “Tiny Furniture”
Michael McDonough, “Winter’s Bone”
Harris Savides, “Greenberg”

dino88

Did you watch the show? I just went through it on my dvr. Joel McHale had a great line. He described Black Swan as "the movie where the girl from That 70's Show eats out Luke Skywalker's mom."
They also did a In Memorium sketch with actors that may die in the next year. They put actors in attendance on camera with a caption about how they will die. Jesse Eisenberg's caption was "Murdered by Michael Cera."

The show was a bit of a nightmare though. Supposedly it was freezing as nearly everyone commented on it. There was this buzz of chatter going on during the entire show as if only half of the people in attendance were actually paying attention. And then the stage was extremely slippery. A couple people nearly fell. One person did fall...twice. And then they have a very pregnant Natalie Portman accepting an award on that same stage.

Drexl

Suicide is a horrible way to go.