I'm not a comic book reader, so I'd never heard of the Watchmen until a few months ago. Still, I think this is going to open over $100 million.

No teens, really? Wow you really don't know anything about the movie going public, do ya?

apparently you really don't know what an R rating entails.

A lot of Seventeen, Eighteen, and Nineteen year olds are most definitely going to be seeing this. And yeah, it's not uncommon for younger teens to get into R rated movies.

A good amount of teens will be able to get tickets straight up but most of them will have to buy tickets to something else and sneak in. Which means a lot more people will watch it then will be tallied for BO totals.

You people who think NO KIDS OR TEENS ARE GOING TO THIS MOVIE are either out of your minds, or haven't set foot in a movie theater in decades. R-rated movies are LOADED with kids and parents, to the detriment of mankind. (I don't care if kids see R-rated movies; I only care if they are uncivilized, obnoxious shitstains who interrupt the movie constantly and their do-nothing, couldn't-care-less parents blissfully ignore their behavior).

It's my understanding that they don't enforce the R rating that heavily at local multiplexes here (NYC). Some teens will go to WATCHMEN, some, of course, will stay home and download. I'm not sure about non-geeky adults, though. There doesn't seem to be much buzz among the crowds that have made SLUMDOG and GRAN TORINO such unexpected hits. THE DARK KNIGHT managed to pull in the non-geeky adults. Mainly because of the hype and the curiosity factor. Will WATCHMEN do the same? It'll be a neat trick if it does, but the reviews will have to be good.

As part of the general public extrinsic to the comic book world, I'll say around 30 million.

Why do any of you think that teenagers would WANT to see this movie? This is a comic book YOU all enjoyed as teens.

That's why everyone here said that Twilight was going to tank at the box office. Go check the thread, that thing got underestimated like crazy. It's a different generation and we don't share the same interests.

Of course I know that kids can get into R rated movies. I just don't think they are going to bother with this one...outside of the nerd set anyway.

Why would they want to see 300? The amount of people who READ 300 (teens or otherwise) is a mere fraction of the millions who have read Watchmen over the past 23 years. It has an acclaim (both in the pop culture and literary worlds) that no other comic can touch. Plus the marketing is specific targeting the action, special effects, and gee-whiz quick-cutting hoo-hah that teens love. The commercials LOOK cool, as did 300's. And *that* movie topped $200 million.
OK Gramps.
We'll see. You are, of course, massively generalizing about the "younger generation". I would say that the millions of printings last year alone of "Watchmen" graphic novels, hardcovers, etc. really speaks about the groundswell of interest in this movie. The nerds already have their copies. Who's buying the new ones?

Wow! There's a lot of emotion going into speculating what this movie will make! Plus, equal amounts of over and under-estimating movie-going audiences.

To me, it seems like Watchmen has gotten a mellow level of hype, but plenty of attention. Numerous articles in EW (plus a cool 6 cover collector's series) as well as the New York Times etc. (because of the 'rights' scandal) have given this a pretty good deal of exposure.

Reviews seem positive so far and it looks like jack-sh*t is opening that weekend, so Watchmen will probably do good numbers, regardless of whether people 'get what it's about.'

The trailers look cool, numbers are good so far this year, it's all good. Plus, if you don't care, you don't have to go!

It'll do great opening weekend but I think after all the fanboys see it the mainstream won't have too much interest.

You must have missed the previews for 300 that showed tons of ass-kicking, swords, sandals and a very stylized "look". The Watchmen trailers show a big blue guy, a Batman-looking dude kissing a chick with long hair and a guy in a trench coat with a lighter.
I'm 32. I read Twilight. I am not a teenage girl. The book was terrible and the movie holds no interest to me. But I knew it would be huge, because every time our 12-year-old babysitter came over she was reading a different book in the series. I can tell you right now she doesn't give two shits about Watchmen

I know no one under the age of 30 or over the age of 40 in real life that is interested in this movie. That's all I can base this on

It'll do fair numbers. It won't be the massive blockbuster everyone hopes it will be. I am personally stoked to see it...I think it looks awesome. I'm also not one of the millions of drones who tune in each week to vote for glorified karaoke...and it's THOSE people that have to go to make it a success.

Look at it this way - ask 100 people on the street if they've heard of Batman. Then ask the same people if they've heard of Nite Owl or Dr. Manhattan. That should give you a fair indication of the level of awareness for this movie.

Draven, I was with you up 'til the last sentence. They won't have heard of Nite Owl or Dr. Manhattan, but they'll have heard of Watchmen. Whether they'll care or not, or even know what it means when they pass the poster, that's different.

Let's just say we agree to disagree at this point. I'm certainly not saying this is a $100m opener -- far from it. I think $50-75 is the right range for opening weekend. Dropoffs, though, that'll be the true gauge of whether or not the public is into this movie.

300 was about the Spartans. At a minimum, people have seen team mascots and know that they're associated with Greek warriors. Older people have seen movies about the 300 Spartans. The trailer promised kick-ass action. Noone went to see it because of the comics.

Watchman has... geek recognition... from 20 years ago. Half the target audience wasn't even born when it was first released... the other half are in their late 30s-early 40s. The movie's based on a comic book that, while it may have been a critical bestseller, has nowhere near the name recognition of other comics. No cartoons, no recognizable characters, no famous actors. All people know is that the plot is about someone killing superheroes. With all the comic book movies that have out in the past few years, there's nothing inherently compelling that makes it stand out. Plus it's over 2-and-a-half hours long, rated R, and released in March.

I'd put my bet on ~$30 million, with a box office performance similar to Hellboy 2.

Gotta disagree with that, I think it looks pretty unique and obviously stylized more so than Iron Man, Batman, etc. Also your points about being rated R and released in March - same as 300. I don't think the extra half hour will hurt it much.

They want to see it because it looks friggin' awesome! I'm 24 and I think it looks amazing, and if I was 15 I would think the same thing. Who cares if the trailer doesn't tell you exactly what the movie is about? I prefer it that way. I'm sick of trailers basically ruining an entire movie by showing you the entire story. I like the intrigue and excitement of not knowing exactly what you are going to see (I haven't read the graphic novel). The trailer does its job of making the movie seem interesting, visually stunning, and awesome.

i think a lot of elderly trans-gendered women around 72-83^1/2 will want to see this.

The average American dipshit wouldn't know a Spartan from a spork. The average American dipshit wouldn't know Greek History from Grey's Anatomy. We live in a lowbrow culture that devalues anything that is more antiquated than last week. They went to see 300, yes, because it looked awesome and promised action and killer visuals.

The Watchmen trailers do (IMO) look "awesome", feature action setpieces, and have overwhelmingly impressive visuals. More than enough to make the average American dipshit sit up and notice.
I'll put it to you that WATCHMEN has more recognizability than 300/Greek History/The 300 Warriors ever had with the general public.
Watchmen is still widely discussed/slobbered about/revered as much now as it was when it was released, probably even moreso. It's the Holy Grail among comic book aficianados which has garnered mainstream literary acceptance. It's taught in university-level literature courses. That statement makes it seems like it was released once to a cult audience 2 decades ago and dropped. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I think it's conceivable that the film could open to twice that (or more), and $200 million is certainly realistic. We'll see.

I guess we'll see.

My main issue is that I was a comic book collector, a toy collector, an action and sci-fi movie fan and am exactly the kind of person that should be excited about this movie...but it wasn't until I saw the first trailer that I decided to seek out and read the book. I'd seen it in the comic stores, I knew the nerds loved it, but I'd flipped through it and thought it looked really boring. In fact, while I enjoyed the book I think I would have liked it equally as well if it had just been a short story. The visuals didn't do a lot for me and made it look very dated IMHO.

So if I'm only somewhat aware of the property...I can't imagine that people who aren't in my world at all (most people) would even know or care that it was based on a comic book.

I know lots of people who know nothing about comics, outside of the trailers haven't heard jackshit about Watchmen - and all of them (guys and girls, late 20's) are going to see it next weekend... they think it looks cool and most saw the first teaser with The Dark Knight and have been waiting for it ever since.

But I think what Draven is getting at here is, before this movie was announced, how many people knew what Watchmen was? Before The Dark Knight (or even Batman Begins) damn near anyone who has even the slightest sense of pop culture knew who Batman was. Watchmen had nowhere near the wide familiarity of something like Batman or Superman.

Of course, at this current moment in time the ads are everywhere and you would get a different result from such a survey. But that says more about the WB marketing team than the size of the Watchmen following. I think the existing Watchmen fanbase will account for maybe $10-20 million in opening weekend box office at best, and the rest will depend on how much interest there is among the general populace.

Exactly.

My parents, my aunts, my uncles, my grandma know Batman. I'll bet my life savings none of them has never heard of Watchmen until 9and if) they saw a TV commercial this past week.

When fanboys' circle of friends is fanboys, it's easy to say "OMG! Everybody!" but there's a whole world of people out there who are not 24 years old and watching G4.

i've read that DC printed 1,000,000 copies of Watchmen in 2008 and 100,000 in 2007. I realize the movie being in production increases sales but that still shows that there is a big audience for it.