Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Watchmen isn't nearly as close to the hype for The Dark Knight, which one could argue started right after Batman Begins. In addition to the viral marketing and the early tv spots, I can't say there's a blockbuster movie that's coming out soon that comes an iota close to being the same level. Not that I'm doubting the ignorant of TDK movie goers (there could be a few that didn't know Batman Begins even existed, or that Christian Bale actually played other roles besides Batman) but I can confidently say very few people in the general public probably know of a Watchmen graphic novel.

Prediction: Aprx. 50-75 mill
Hoping: 100 mill +

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Batman is a very recognizable character globally, and TDK was a sequel to a critically successful film that made real numbers on DVD.

Watchmen is, for better or worse - completely unknown to the vast majority of the public. While the comic fans will no doubt be there opening day, I think the public won't.

Spiderman, Batman, Superman - these are all well known established characters with the general public, so there's already a level of interest and understanding.

Watchmen is coming in "fresh" and that will hurt it's box office IMHO.

It will be lucky to make $60 million on opening weekend.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Agreed. I have never read Watchmen and the first I heard about it was when the trailer played during TDK. I thought it looked very interesting and knew right away I'd be seeing it but only because I'm a fan of Sin City and 300 (the movies, never read the comics).

Other than that, I have absolutely no idea what the movie is about. I'm excited to see it next week and I'm hoping it will be good but all I can't honestly tell you anything specific about the plot. It almost seems that they're trying to sell this movie on a reputation that most people know nothing about.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

They haven't done a very good job telling us what the movie is about. 300 told that story very clearly. Watchmen, at least in the trailer, does not.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Then again, Watchmen is one of the best selling graphic novel of all time, 300 is not.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Also, it's very hard to sum up Watchmen with a log line or a two minute trailer... something like 300 is very easy to explain with very little effort.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

And only a small amount of the general public read graphic novels.

300 wasn't sold on the idea that it was a graphic novel and is now a movie, it was sold on the idea that it was a story about the Spartan army.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

To be honest, I'm pretty sure 300 was sold on the fact that everyone and their mother got a free ticket to see it from Best Buy.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

I didn't get one. :sad:

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

70mil opening weekend. 130mil total.

It's been getting tons of tv spots, hype, all the online clips, all of the MTV stuff and it looks good. If it is considered a failure, you can't say 'they didn't try'.

I've been staying too busy to go to the movies lately. I can't even remember the last movie I saw theatrically (probably something last summer or maybe last fall). But I WILL, definately, just drop my work and see this on Saturday morning. No if ands or buts.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Which is what exactly?? 1 copy or a million? Are we talking Stephen King numbers or more like 100,000? It could be the best selling Graphic novel of all time selling 10 copies. That alone will not translate into movie tickets. I have said before the previews do nothing to interest me in the film. I have not read the novel but I am willing to check it out to see what all the fuss is about.

To people like me IMHO they are doing a very poor job of marketing the movie. We shall see in a couple of weeks.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Me neither. In fact, I don't remember such a promotion at all, so I doubt it had that much of an effect.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

In it's life time, easily over a million. Apparently it sold about 100k back in 2007, and a million copies were printed in 2008 with the trailer debut.

I'm surprised people feel there isn't any hype around the movie. Theaters are filled with big posters and onlookers, the comic book is typically front and center in the book stores i've been in, and the trailers seem to have generated a pretty positive look from casual people, as far as I can tell.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

I don't know. The fact that they are showing a commercial for the movie virtually every few minutes on every prime time show on every channel looks like they're promoting it pretty heavily to me. Not only that, but as we get closer to release day the type of promos they're running in the rotation is changing as well.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

^Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer was promoted to death too. Watchmen just doesn't have the casual viewer appeal. I think this movie is best compared to Sin City ($74 mil), 300 ($70+) and V for Vendetta ($75mil). It's been promoted to death but NO ONE (outside the fanbase) knows what the movie is about. I think the fact that the movie has been promoted to death, that it doesn't have much competition and the fact that it just looks intriguing will let it topple $100mil, but I just don't see much more after that.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

whoa, 115 OW?

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

50-65 OW.

I am hoping all the advertising and trailers will help push it to that.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

You're mixing up numbers. 300's opening was $70 mil on it's way to $210 million total domestic.

It could certainly fall closer to Sin City/V for Vendetta numbers then 300's, but the larger fan base of Watchmen should help.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Right, but just because those things are out there doesn't mean people want to see it.

I really think that it's going to do numbers right in line with V for Vendetta. Notable directors, cool imagery, and a fairly unknown story that sounded neat.

It doesn't matter how many graphic novels have been sold - the general public does NOT know who the Watchmen are. I was a comic book nerd in the early 90s and hadn't ever seen anything about them outside of the cover of the book. I didn't read it until this year. There are 10 very "in touch with pop culture" people working in my office and no one knows anything except "That "Watchmen" movie with that blue guy".

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Right, and just because the general public doesn't know anything about the comic doesn't mean there's no interest. 300 was the same way, and I think Watchmen will appeal similarly, even though the story isn't as simple. And even though you haven't heard of the comic back in the 90's, you have now.

Graphic novel sales is just alluding to a large number of fanboys that will be there on opening day and give it a pretty sizable boost, not to mention a bigger appeal since the movie trailers have come out. It obviously isn't going to automatically mean the movie is going to be huge (like all the best selling novels that don't turn into blockbusters), but someone asked about sales which is why it came up.

At it's best I still think it can have a 300 type opening, but I can't see any way it opens as low as V for Vendetta.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Does everyone think this will capture an wide audience. I have talked to a few people who are not comic fans and they think it looks too weird for them.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

I don't think so either, but I hope it does. I'll be running four prints of this film come March and it had better be worth it.

People can talk all they like about how it's the greatest "graphic novel" (such a stupid, infantile term) ever written, how it's on the list of 100 greatest novels and how the guy who did 300 can't be wrong, but what it comes down to is the general public are unfamiliar with the book, don't recognize the stars and the trailers don't tell them much. WB has done an impressive job of getting the brand out there (never thought I'd see Watchmen on sale at Target!), but how much of it will stick?

By the way, if you're reading this and saying "well I know a bunch of people who want to see it", I must remind you, you're on the internet. Chances are the people you know in real life are as geeky as you and me.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

For those that think this will do less than 50 mil, you are flat out crazy. My 115 mil prediction may be bold, but I really think it has a chance to get there. The hype and marketing for this movie is INSANE. The R-rating and long run time don't matter. This will be a HUGE movie, much bigger than V for Vendetta or Fantasic Four. The doubters should prepare to eat crow come next weekend.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

Yes they do.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen
 

how do you put V for Vendetta and FF in the same sentence? and when hasn't run time and rating affected box office?