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Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wired article

Cult Status, Comic Sales Could Boost Watchmen Box Office
http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2009...en-number.html

Okay, sorry to be a(nother) devil's advocate here, but this whole article sounds almost desperate the way it's reaching. It's one thing to cheer the film on and want it to succeed, but come on...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wired article

But there is one wild card working in the Watchmen film's favor, and it is a glaring one: The comic.

If anything, I'd argue this is a factor against the film having legs. Built-in audiences usually result in a front-loaded film, not one with longevity.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wired article

And then there is Watchmen's intense marketing blitz. Ramming home the point with ubiquitous posters, action figures, comics and viral campaigns, the advertising spectacle should convince anyone who still hasn't seen the film or the comic that there's something behind the buzz.

This is an odd argument. All that marketing has been out for months. Discounting those who were planning on waiting a week or two to see it all along, if that marketing didn't entice/appeal to holdouts the first time why would it suddenly 'convince anyone ... there's something behind the buzz' now?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wired article

Yet the key demographic are those who saw the movie but have not read the original work. Given the comic's increasingly stellar performance on the best-seller lists, burgeoning interest in the comic could lead right back to the film for compare-and-contrast nerd sessions aimed at sussing out sub-narratives, Easter eggs and more.

I don't doubt this will happen, but I think this will help out sales of the DVD(where viewers can freeze frames, rewind, and analyze to their heart's content) more than the box office take.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wired article

Other factors bode well for Watchmen, the movie. This weekend, Watchmen battles lightweight remakes like Disney's Race to Witch Mountain and Wes Craven's Last House on the Left. The next potential blockbuster won't show up until May, when Terminator: Salvation is released.

Even ignoring the whole Star Trek/Wolverine issue, this paragraph overlooks so many things. First, there will be a whole slew of movies released between now and May that will compete not only for audiences but more importantly for screens. Monsters vs Aliens, Fast and Furious, and the Hannah Montana movie are just a few of the high profile releases in that span.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Pretty much everyone is predicting that Witch Mountain will win this weekend, so it's hardly a lightweight.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

SO Watchmen only made a bit over $5 million yesterday. Its over with. Watchmen is done. Its not gonna make much more than $100 million now and will be looked at as a failure for tumbling 70% its 2nd weekend.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

If it had been 1:35 and PG-13 this never would have happened.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Ouch. I hope this doesn't ruin any of the major plans for the forthcoming BD. I'm still planning to see it again on IMAX before it's done.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

so it looks like watchmen MIGHT be lucky to reach hapgilmore's first weekend prediction ($115mil) even after all is said and done. hilarious.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

But I thought that this was going to be the biggest thing since The Dark Knight and we were all underestimating it's box office performance?!? I was thinking it would follow along the same lines as 300, but the way it's looking now it will barely cross the 100M mark.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Quote:

Originally Posted by majorjoe23 (Post 9325878)

If it had been 1:35 and PG-13 this never would have happened.

Could it have made more? Maybe, but it would've been flamed by all the fanboys and thus would've still had quite a drop off...

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Poor (literally) Watchmen. I usually don't feel anything about a film's box office, but this is just sad for such a good movie.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

It's a shame, because Witch Mountain is fucking terrible...of course, I had to pay to see it to find that out (but the film broke during the trailers and even though it got fixed, I got a free pass for the 10 minute delay!). I think a lot of people heard that Watchmen is tough to follow or too weird for the older 'gran torino' type audience... and the young kids just can't get in. Sucks. Oh well, I'll go see Watchmen again tonight to at least give it some help.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

The squid is laughing his ass off right now.

Re: Box Office Predictions: Watchmen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mondo Kane (Post 9326378)

The squid is laughing his ass off right now.

That squid is a poor winner! ;)

Was browsing through the trade paperback of Watchmen at Barnes & Noble just now and it totally made me want to watch the movie again.

As already noted, this has cult movie written all over it. If it wasn't so damn long theaters would probably let it hang around a few extra weeks, but oh well. It will do well on DVD, and dorks like me will probably bounce back and forth between the comic and the movie for a while.

Anyone know particulars of applying DVD sales to a movie's bottom line?