I fear that nekkid blue abs might not be as enticing as those shown in the 300 trailer.

Probably around 65 mill, (55? not close enough, I guess.

I'll agree it's mostly genre-fan hype, but with large critical component. If reviews hold up, it will drop only 37% for the second weekend. (doesn't look like this is the case, let's say a 67% drop)

Total domestic: $180 mill (er, I think I meant, total worldwide .... )

And for those who want to bet, 'how bout a wager of 10% of opening weekend gross?

Yeah, I think regular people who've never read the comic are going to be disappointed. Going in expecting a kickass super hero movie and getting a political allegory instead. I'm really curious to see how the general public reacts.

I hope it does well, but not too well. We wouldn't want them trying to make a sequel now would we?

I'm going to guess 58.3 million opening. This is going to be a primarily male demo.

Id say these numbers sound about right. Hopefully it does better than Sped Racer did at least. However it is R-rated, over 2 and a half hours and I really wanna see it so it wouldnt surprise me if it bombs. America's tastes and my tastes rarely align at the box office.

and with a 2:45 running time it will be even tougher.

but, i think with all the promotion, with IMAX, given the successes of "Sin City" and "300"...$75-80 mil opening, then i don't think there is a way to predict beyond opening because you have to see the movie and see the critical response to predict longevity.

Opens huge: $75M

Totals around $180M

It won't crossover.

I still think the best comparison is to 300, same style, rating, wknd, type of film, etc.. only this one is longer and not as clearly defined...general reaction I think being "cool, but what is it?" I think it'll do good business but below 300's.

51-75 million
Maybe a little less or maybe a little more but close to that....

Ha... I think even if people love or hate Watchmen, a lot of the talk will be about how much blue penis is in the movie... the general public has no idea how much dong they are in for.

There's a lot of internet hype, but that doesn't always translate into big box office (see Serenity, Snakes on a Plane, Kevin Smith, etc.). The problem is the offline hype just isn't quite there. And it has a lot of factors against it, or at least against a mega-blockbuster-opening weekend. It's a relatively unknown property as far as the majority of America is concerned. It's rated R. It's 2 hours and 43 minutes. There's also never been a $100 million+ opening outside of the summer or holiday seasons.

Top Superhero Opening Weekends (2005-Present)
The Dark Knight $158,411,483 (Sequel, very well-known property, Heath's final role)
Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516 (Sequel, very well-known property)
X-Men: The Last Stand $102,750,665 (Sequel, well-known property)
Iron Man $98,618,668 (Recognizable cast)
Hancock $62,603,879 (Mega b.o. star)
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer $58,051,684 (Sequel)
Fantastic Four $56,061,504
The Incredible Hulk $55,414,050 (Well-known property, well-known lead)
Superman Returns $52,535,096 (Very well-known property)
Batman Begins $48,745,440 (Very well-known property, well-known cast)
Ghost Rider $45,388,836 (Well-known lead)
---
Of these, only three broke $100 mil opening weekend and they were sequels to $200 million+ grossers, plus the comics were well-known properties in the mainstream long before the movies came out.

Top R-Rated Opening Weekends
The Matrix Reloaded $91,774,413 (Sequel)
The Passion of the Christ $83,848,082 (Church mobs)
300 $70,885,301
Hannibal $58,003,121 (Sequel)
Sex and the City $57,038,404 (Spinoff of popular show)
---
300 is the obvious precedent here. It's also the record opener for March. The question is: What drew people to that movie, and does Watchmen have the same appeal? The thing is, the ads for 300 were pretty clear about what to expect with that movie... while the Watchmen ads leave a lot of people going "Huh?" The trailer's both dour and cartoonish, a strange mix. I'm just not sure it does a very good job of selling the premise to those who aren't already familiar with the property.

That said, if Friday the 13th and Madea can open with back-to-back $40 mil+ weekends, who knows? I'm going to guess a $50 mil opening weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it end up $20 mil away from that figure in either direction.

Yeah, I agree there's no way at all.... since Watchmen isn't opening in February.


I'll predict 75-80mil. I think it will be bigger than a lot of people are expecting, but not huge like X-Men or Spidey or Batman

76-100 mil.

This is not going to have a huge opening. There's still tickets to see this in IMAX at Lincoln Square. You can still see it, in IMAX, at King of Prussia. And this is for any time on the 6th. I see this doing somewhere north of $60MM, if that.

There is absolutely no way it will reach $100MM.

Say what you want people, this is rated R. It will get nowhere near the kind of audience DK, Iron Man, Spider-Man or any of the recent comic book themed blockbusters, just because of the fact that <18yr cannot attend the film without an older parent or guardian.

i think this says it all - while i personally hope that it has a huge opening weekend (and i will be doing my best to contribute to it), history suggests that an R rated movie will not open to huge numbers. if it comes close to 300, i would be happy.

Odd. Once I actually tried to get IMAX tickets, it told me it was sold out. I still think this will hit somewhere around 300 numbers, give or take $10MM.

I got tickets for an 8PM non-IMAX showing at Union Square.

I say opening weekend: $42M with rapid 50% drop each weekend.

Total US take < $100M.

I'm saying opening weekend $54M, total box office $140. Not sure, but I know a lot of people down here that couldn't tell you who the hell the naked blue guy is but are still going to see it.

I think the hype is going to level with the movie's R-Rating, March release, and 160-minute running time. Any movie with that hype would normally open to around $85 million, and any movie with those other attributes would normally underperform, so I'm going to say something around:

$55 million

I'd say around 70. A lot of people are going to see it based off of it being by the same guy as 300 (which is why I'm going), but a lot will also see it as fans of the novel.

70mil sounds about right...maybe 25ish opening weekend. There is very little hype, and most people don't know what it is. Hell, when I tried to buy midnight Imax tickets, the 2 people working didn't even know what movie I was talking about, and this was a week ago. The trailers make it look like a really bad, unknown superhero movie...but adding "300" to it should help a bit.

Midnight IMAX here is sold out. They added a 3:20am showing. Yikes.

I don't see it doing more than 60mil.

Voted 0-25mil.

I know only 1 person excited for this and it's definately not me.

I voted 76-100 million.

Jonas Brothers is only in IMAX for this upcoming week only. Watchmen will pretty much be on every IMAX screen in the US come March 6th, plus 3000 35mm and DLP screens.

Everybody has been talking about this film, even more after the first trailer was attached to TDK (which means the film has already had $500 million plus in free advertising).

The opening weekend might be one of the biggest for an R-Rated film, but I also see it dropping huge come weekend two.

57.41076 million.

bank on it.