Box Office Predictions: The Dark Knight
07-10-08, 04:32 PM
#2
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I'm probably gonna be proven ridiculously wrong and misguided, but I'm calling it. This will beat Spider-Man 3 and open at $154.7 million. Total domestic? I'll go with $335 million.
K
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07-10-08, 04:47 PM
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My guess (domestic):
Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m
The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.
Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m
The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.
07-10-08, 04:55 PM
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Originally Posted by RoboDad
My guess (domestic):
Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m
The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.
Opening weekend: $97m
Total: $284m
The opening weekend might be higher, but without a midweek opening, and the somewhat crowded field (not much opening the same weekend, but many "competing" films still in wide release), I will be surprised to see it that much higher.
Don't forget, though, that there are basically an entire day's worth of sold-out showings at many theater starting at midnight on Thursday and rocking straight through the night into Friday. However, these gains will probably be offset by the 2.5 hour runtime causing fewer showings overall.
With the buzz for this, though, the movie is going to do well. It will certainly earn enough to be considered a success AND it's critical buzz is off the charts. It will warrent a sequel and it will (from the sound of it) give us THE DEFINITIVE Batman film.
Anything on top of that is gravy.
-Doc
07-10-08, 05:16 PM
#12
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opening: $115-$125, would love to see $150
total dom: $350-$375, would love to see over $400
i think the very dark storyline will prevent many parents who took kids to the Spideys from this one (at least on opening).
total dom: $350-$375, would love to see over $400
i think the very dark storyline will prevent many parents who took kids to the Spideys from this one (at least on opening).
Last edited by OldBoy; 07-10-08 at 05:43 PM.
07-10-08, 05:35 PM
#14
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Opening Weekend: $83 million
Total Domestic: $230 million
I don't doubt this is going to be a GREAT movie...what I doubt is that a large portion of the mainstream will go to see it again, since it's more of an epic drama than "summer popcorn flick'. A lot of people are going to be turned off by it.
Keep in mind, folks that if THE DARK KNIGHT rakes in close to $100 million on opening weekend, that will be TWICE what BATMAN BEGINS did on its opening weekend.
Total Domestic: $230 million
I don't doubt this is going to be a GREAT movie...what I doubt is that a large portion of the mainstream will go to see it again, since it's more of an epic drama than "summer popcorn flick'. A lot of people are going to be turned off by it.
Keep in mind, folks that if THE DARK KNIGHT rakes in close to $100 million on opening weekend, that will be TWICE what BATMAN BEGINS did on its opening weekend.
Last edited by Shannon Nutt; 07-10-08 at 05:40 PM.
07-10-08, 05:50 PM
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Using the Pirates films as a barometer to gauge the success of TDK, since DMC was huge thanks to pent-up demand for a further tale:
Opening weekend: $162m
Domestic: $377m (I think it could have a shot at breaking $400. PotC: DMC did and that was a long film too)
Overseas: $390m
Overall: $767m
Opening weekend: $162m
Domestic: $377m (I think it could have a shot at breaking $400. PotC: DMC did and that was a long film too)
Overseas: $390m
Overall: $767m
07-10-08, 06:06 PM
#19
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Hey, I'm all over this. But didn't the last one make just 200M plus some change? Is it really possible this can make 100 plus million more? I was actually surprised "Begins" did as little business as it did. I just wrote it off as too dark for most (??) And this looks ten times darker. Goody 
So I just don't know anymore.
So I just don't know anymore.
07-10-08, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Daytripper
Hey, I'm all over this. But didn't the last one make just 200M plus some change? Is it really possible this can make 100 plus million more? I was actually surprised "Begins" did as little business as it did. I just wrote it off as too dark for most (??) And this looks ten times darker. Goody So I just don't know anymore.
So I just don't know anymore.It's not crazy to think this could do $100 million more than Batman Begins or possibly twice what BB did.
Other sequels that did quite a bit more than the original/predecessor:
Austin Powers 2
Pirates of the Caribbean 2
Rambo 2
T2
Matrix 2
07-10-08, 06:56 PM
#21
I think Spider-man 3 will still have the opening weekend record after TDK debuts. The big difference between these 2 films is Spidey 3 kicked off the Summer season with 0 competition. TDK will still be dealing with several Summer movies playing in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th weekends. The following week, Step Brothers and The X-Files both open. The week after that, The Mummy 3 opens. All of those films could do very well on opening weekend.
Spider-man 3 opening weekend numbers:
It earned $151 million, the rest of the top 10 combined for about $27.5 million.
Spider-man 3's first 3 day earnings:
Friday: $59.8 million
Saturday: $51.3 million
Sunday: $39.8 million
The numbers above are also the highest single day totals ever for those specific days.
I think TDK will beat the original Spider-man's opening and come in with $115 million. It'll end up at or very close to $300 million. Indy 4 wins the Summer box office competition.
On a side note, Tim Burton's Batman earned $251 million in the US during its run. Adjusted for inflation, it comes to $433 million, which puts it at #47 all-time.
Spider-man 3 opening weekend numbers:
It earned $151 million, the rest of the top 10 combined for about $27.5 million.
Spider-man 3's first 3 day earnings:
Friday: $59.8 million
Saturday: $51.3 million
Sunday: $39.8 million
The numbers above are also the highest single day totals ever for those specific days.
I think TDK will beat the original Spider-man's opening and come in with $115 million. It'll end up at or very close to $300 million. Indy 4 wins the Summer box office competition.
On a side note, Tim Burton's Batman earned $251 million in the US during its run. Adjusted for inflation, it comes to $433 million, which puts it at #47 all-time.
Last edited by Mr. Cinema; 07-10-08 at 07:00 PM.
07-10-08, 07:15 PM
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I will go with $120m opening weekend. I am going to say 415m domestic.
While this is a darker film and it has a long runtime, it is still a PG-13 rated batman movie so it can't be THAT dark and long runtimes have not stopped movies in the past.
While this is a darker film and it has a long runtime, it is still a PG-13 rated batman movie so it can't be THAT dark and long runtimes have not stopped movies in the past.
07-10-08, 07:35 PM
#25
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Originally Posted by slabinskia
While this is a darker film and it has a long runtime, it is still a PG-13 rated batman movie so it can't be THAT dark and long runtimes have not stopped movies in the past.