I think it will do around $85 million first weekend and around $250M total. I just do not see it beating Iron Man. A Dark version of Batman just has less broad appeal. BTW I think those numbers are optimistic.

Actually, I think the opening weekend will break all records. But will it continue to make money? The reviews so far are pretty damn stellar. So this has potential.

Well, the way I figure it is..

Midnight shows are selling out. 3:00 am shows were ordered. Those sold out and now places are having 6:00 am showings. That in my opinion, gives it a huge chance to break a lot of records.

It'll beat Iron Man easy.

i'll go out in a limb and say over $120 mil.....i expect this movie to be big

Anybody quoting over $250 million domestic is out of their mind. It'll open big for sure, but there is a bit of competition coming Bruce Wayne's way in the next few weeks or so.

I'm gonna go with an opening of about $135 mill and a domestic run of about $350 mill.

Two. Dollars.

There's no way in hell TDK does less numbers than Iron Man. TDK has bigger stars, considerably more mainstream buzz, a bigger franchise name and near-universal critical acclaim.

I dunno. It should clear BB's gross, as well as adding at least $50m due to high anticipation and Ledger's death.

Opening Weekend: $160 million

Total Domestic: $360-375 million

Worldwide: $550-575 million

Oh Yeah. Believe the hype!

Really? I'd say $225-250 is about the minimum I would expect from this movie. Considering the first movie made $200 million, there's absolutely no chance it will make less then that for a lot of reasons.

The first has received a ton of good word of mouth on DVD and TV broadcasts, and there's a ton of more interest then in the new franchise since the first movie came out. Anyone that was confused about a new Batman versus the last Schumacher movies is long gone.

Early reviews have been spectacular.

Heath's death has garnered a lot of interest, especially with articles and reviews commenting on potential Oscar nominations.

IMAX and midnight showings already selling out points to a huge opening.

I've been seeing TV spots everywhere, and the marketing push for this seems bigger, better, badder then before.

Really, i'd be surprised if this doesn't hit at least $250 million.

I'm just going to go all out wacky here:

Opening Weekend: $170 million

Total Domestic: $375-400 million

This movie is going to be huge, and I think it'll do more than many people expect. The 12am showings are selling out, 3am showings are selling out, and now they're being forced to offer 6am showings.

Well, since you've made a list of why you think it'll easily clear $250 million, let me make my own list of why it might struggle to hit that amount:

- Yes, Ledger's death will undoubtedly bring in lots of curious moviegoers, but these are people who will probably watch the movie once and leave it at that. In other words, they can't be counted on for repeat business.

- It's no secret that Americans are cutting back on luxuries and socking away their disposable income rather than spending it. $10 for one ticket might not sound like much, but when you add in extra tickets for spouses/children, refreshments, etc., you could easily be looking at $50 or so just for one movie; that is a lot (hell, I'm looking at spending $25 for an IMAX ticket and riding BART, and that's just for me).

- From the reviews, The Dark Knight is a violent, dark, downbeat movie. Movies of this type rarely do very well at the box office, regardless of the subject matter.

- People here and in other places are falling into the trap of thinking that whatever they obsess over, the general public will. This has been proven time and time again to be a false and quite stupid assumption.

- Just look at the general pattern most summer movies are taking this year: giant opening, HUGE numbers, and then a steep decline in attendance the following week, with the numbers gradually shrinking with each passing week. Indiana Jones eventually slumped over the $300 million mark, but it took almost 2 months to do that, and I would argue that it has more broad appeal than Batman, and a huge fanbase.

- Like I mentioned before, there is competition on the way: The X-Files, the newest teamup between Will Ferrell and The Guy Who Directed Anchorman and Talladega Nights*, the newest comedy from the Judd Apatow Army, and The Mummy 3, all of which will have the same appeal to most moviegoers as TDK does**. Think about it: you're an average person who probably goes to a movie once a week (or every other week)...why would you go see TDK again when you can go see a newer movie?

But I wouldn't worry; I doubt Dark Knight is going to cost anyone at Warners their job.

(* - Yes, I know the director is Adam McKay. But most people don't.)

(** - I would probably throw in Mamma Mia! to this list, but I doubt the audiences for that and TDK will overlap that much. Either way, it was a very smart counterprogramming move.)

I can't see it beating Spiderman 3's records, or any other for that matter. Maybe it'll hit $300 million, but I think that will be a stretch due to the dark subject matter and content. I'd love for this movie to kick the ass out of all records, but it just won't happen.

I would love to be proven wrong, but I don't see this making over $300 million domestic. I'm sure it will be awesome, but Spider-Man and Iron Man had the advantage of not being incredibly dark.

$275 is my realistic domestic guess.

Spider-Man 3 has the biggest 3-day.. what does TDK have to make to beat that?

Friday - $45 million
Overall Opening Weekend - $100 million
Overall - $325 million

Mamma Mia is good counterprogramming to The Dark Knight. I plan on seeing both movies next week if I can.

In 2008 -- among audiences that really deliver (and deliver with repeat viewings) -- I think Batman has greater universal appeal than Indiana Jones, a character that was out of the spotlight for 19 years. Young people (and especially women) don't care about Harrison Ford, they do care about Christian Bale and Heath Ledger. And Michael Caine will bring in their horndog grandmothers, so it really hits on all cylinders.

If it doesn't beat Spidey's opening weekend, I have a good feeling it will at least beat the opening day. Like people here have said, 3:00am showings are sold out, that didn't even happen for Spidey 3 around here in SoCal. And there are tons of reports from websites saying, this is selling at a record pace at movietickets and on fandango.

I don't think the dark nature of the film or running time will hurt the opening weekend either. It's still being promoted for kids with all the toys (just look at the display at Toys R Us ), the Dominos tie-ins, Reese's Peanutbutter cups, etc. And the movie is only 10 minutes longer than Spidey 3.

Spider-Man 3 opened at $151 million, I believe. So let's say $152 million. I have faith it can do that, but I've been proven wrong before. I certainly never expected Pirates 2 to beat the original Spider-Man.

K

i don't remember them having showings at 3 and 5 in the morning for spiderman 3.

this is gonna make a lot of money.

Why yes, what woman wouldn't swoon at the sight of Christian Bale in an outfit that covers and obscures his features from head to toe. And really, what female wouldn't have sweet, romantic dreams later that night after seeing a dead actor portraying a man caked in white makeup, with stringy green hair and a mouth with a horrible scar on either side of his face, whose favorite hobby is murdering people in between bouts of acting completely insane.

As for Michael Caine, I suppose there's three or four women living somewhere in England who simply must go see anything he's in, so Nolan obviously used his financial smarts when casting Alfred.

The majority of this people are seeing the movie for two things: because they are morbidly fascinated with Ledger's death, and because it's Batman, not because it's Christian Bale. Any tall, physically fit male actor with a modicum of acting talent could have been squeezed into the Batsuit, and you would have had the same box office results Warners got on Begins and will get on Dark Knight.

It should break 250 million easy. I think Hellboy is probably going to suffer the most as a result of the close release dates. I wouldn't be surprised if the X-files and The Mummy bomb.

I posted Spidey's individual 3 day numbers on page 1, which are huge.

I expect the Mummy to bomb. Is Brendan Fraser a big enough star that he needs two starring roles in three weeks?

I expect X-Files will be more of a sleeper film, making $70 mil or so.