Mr. Cinema

Another Summer, another flood of comic book films, and plenty of sequels. Unlike last year, I don't think we'll have three $300 million movies in the US. I'm sure my predictions will be off badly as they were last year, but here goes...

1. The Dark Knight - $315 million

-Batman Begins managed $205 million in 2005. However, the last Batman film that was on the big screen was "Batman and Robin", which I'm sure kept some from seeing this version. The Dark Knight, however, has the most buzz of any Summer film and follows the successful Batman Begins. It should be the champ.

2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $250 million

-This is a franchise that a few of us grew up on. Spielberg + Summer usually = mega bucks. This should appeal to everyone, which means lots of tickets sold.

3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $245 million

-I have 0 interest in this series, but I'm guessing alot of folks will be lining up for this sequel.

4. Wall-E - $230 million

5. Iron Man - $200 million

-Iron Man isn't as popular as Spidey, Superman, or Batman, but damn those trailers are impressive. Robert Downey was the perfect choice for Tony Stark. This film has the advantage of kicking off the Summer movie-going season. And with an extremely pathetic group of movies released up until its release date, Iron Man should rake in some serious cash.

6. Hancock - $195 million

7. The Incredible Hulk - $185 million

-I know, I know, Ang Lee's version sucked, blah, blah, blah. Judging from the previews, this will be the version fans wanted the first time around. The original Hulk managed a huge $60+ million opening, but had huge drops and only finished with around $130 million. I think this new Hulk won't have as big of an opening, but will have much stronger legs. Some fans may still be sour from Lee's Hulk, but the character is still one of the most popular in the Marvel universe. I think people will give this one a chance.

8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $150 million

-How many were clamoring for a third Mummy? Regardless, this is a very successful franchise. Fraser is back, which helps. A different Mummy could give the film a nice change of scenery. But Rob Cohen directed, so it could also be a total disaster. It opens August 1st, so it should have a strong weekend.

9. Tropic Thunder - $145 million

-Buzz is big on this one. I didn't think the trailer was all that impressive, but this is being pegged as the Summer's big comedy smash.

10. Get Smart - $140 million

11. Speed Racer - $130 million

12. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - $125 million

13. The Happening - $125 million

-Night rebounds from the horrid Lady in the Water.

14. Step Brothers - $120 million

15. Sex and the City - $100 million

-Who the heck knows or cares?

16. Hellboy 2 - $90 million

-The original opened to $23 million, but only finished with $59 million. This one will do better, especially with the expanding popularity of Del Toro.

burgoonster

Dark Night Or Indiana Jones

Wolf359

The only thing that makes me think The Dark Knight may do better than Indy IV is the Ledger factor. How many people will see this just because it is his final performance?

And I think Wall-E will outperform Prince Caspian. To me the preview for Caspian look a little more dark and violent than the first.

RichC2

Only, this isn't his final performance -- it's just the one closest to his death.

Giles

it's not a major factor - but Dark Knight will benefit from IMAX tix pricing.

Mercury&Solace

1. Indiana Jones IV=$295 Million
This is going to have a HUGE opening, AND have legs. This is going to have POTC type numbers.

2. The Dark Knight=$275
High only because of the Ledger hype.

More to come.....

animatedude

-not that iam looking forward to it but Hancock will break the $200 easily...and Indian Jones should open with above $50 otherwise i would say it's a flop.

-The Dark Knight won't even reach $280.

-Get Smart will make more than $140.

-The Happening will be shit but it will do much more than $125.

misterchimpy

Good idea for a thread!

I'm gonna go with Indy as the runaway box office champ. I just think it has broader appeal(more across generations) than the Batman franchise. I think it will be more comparable to the recent performance of some of the Pirates movies. Although I liked the last Batman movie, it was very dark and violent, nowhere near as 'family friendly' as Indiana will be.

I don't think Hulk or Iron Man will go much over $150 million, imo. There have been way too many cruddy Marvel movies the last few years. Your point about Iron Man's release date is well taken, but it's just not that popular of a character. It will have a big opening weekend. maybe $75 million, but I don't think it will have legs, even if it is a good movie. And I just don't think Hulk is going to be a big movie, they should have waited a few more years until people forgot the last one, lol.

I think you're probably low on Hancock. It's July 4th, Will Smith, and the trailer looks good. I think it will challenge Batman for the #2 spot.

Tropic Thunder,meh...August 15 opening doesn't bode well, imo. Stiller and Black aren't magic at the box office anymore either. Trailer looks bad.

naitram

I agree with Indy. I think with Batman the whole Ledger thing - how he died, how dark his character in it is - is going to keep some families away.

Of course never count out a Pixar movie, could run away with it all.

Artman

Hulk and Hellboy won't even be on the radar, and I'm sure there'll be a breakout comedy... I'm just never good at guessing those.

Indy: 300
Bats: 275
Wall E: 250
Caspien: 225
Hancock: 210
Iron Man: 190
Mummy3: 150
Speed Racer: 125
Zohan: 115
Happening: 100

RichC2

I'll probably adjust these a few times, but :

Indiana Jones: $320m
Batman Begins: $280m
Caspien: $240m
Wall E: $220m
Kung Fu Panda: $180m
Hancock: $170m
G.I. Joe: $165m
Iron Man: $145m
The Love Guru: $130m
Tropic Thunder: $130m
Mummy 3: $126.4m
Hellboy II: $120m
The X-Files 2: $115m
The Happening: $115m
Speed Racer: $110m
Pineapple Express: $110m
Wanted: $100m

sauce07

Tropic Thunder is an R rated action comedy coming out in the middle of August, I expect $80 mil. Box office champ for the summer will be Wall-E, I expect this to come close to Nemo, people will be entranced to the sum of about $315 mil. Dark Knight will do good but I think the Death of Heath Ledger hurt it by about $50 mil in theatrical box office. Indiana Jones looks to do good, but I still think about $80 mil opening weekend and $225 mil total.

CharlieK

Wow, I hadn't even heard of 'Hancock' before this thread. Looks fun. Is it based on a comic book or something, or is it actually an 'original' idea for a movie?

Seantn

I think Wall-E will be the biggest hit of the summer, I really do.

dadaluholla

That's next year.

animatedude

wow,i'm surprised that many of you think Speed Racer will do around $110-$130...come on guys, it's a family movie...it will hit the $150 mark easily.

dadaluholla

I'd say Speed Racer bombs and only hits about $65m. It really looks terrible.

FantasticVSDoom

I think Wall E will be number one with Indiana Jones and Kung Fu Panda 2 and 3... I dont see any 300+ Million in the group.

RichC2

ooooh yeah.

Groucho

Indiana Jones, by a mile. Come on, people. It's a no-brainer.

Maxflier

Indiana Jones

starseed1981

It's going to be Indiana Jones. Its not even debatable.

chris_sc77

I think the OP has some good predictions.
Heres mine.

1. The Dark Knight - $328 million
2. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $313 million
3. Wall-E - $232 million (I have zero interest in this.)
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $217 million (I also have zero interest in this.)
5. Iron Man - $188 million
6. Kung Fu Panda: $168m (Have zero interest in this and all kids movies pretty much
7. Sex and the City - $136.5 million
8. Wanted: $135.2 million
9. Hancock - $132 million
10. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - $124 million
11. The Incredible Hulk - $118 million
12. Tropic Thunder - $112 million
13.Pineapple Express: $110m million
14. Step Brothers - $101 million
15. Get Smart - $81 million
16. You Don't Mess With the Zohan - $80 million
17. X-Files Sequel - $ 77 million (I hope this does good..I'm pulling for it.)
18. The Love Guru: $73 million
19. Hellboy 2 - $66 million
20. Mamma Mia- $65.5 million
21. Speed Racer - $54
22. The Happening - $50 million
23. Meet Dave - $44.87 million (I hate everyone involved in this production with a passion)
24. What Happens in Vegas... - $36.9 million
25. Babylon A.D. - $26.8 million (if this is actually even released)

Zodiac_Speaking

Dark Knight: $345mil
Indiana Jones IV: $325mil
Iron Man: $280mil

Biggest bomb will be Speed Racer

Mondo Kane

Has it been brought up yet that this isn't the first summer that has had Indiana Jones going up against Batman and The Joker?