i really hope thomas newman finally wins an oscar for original score for the good german. he should have won for little women or shawshank redemption in 1997. the only other nominee i recognize is gustavo santaolalla for babel, he won for brokeback last year, i dunno if they would give him two in a row. and the GG winner was for painted veil which is not in the running. i guess john williams didn't compose anything this year?

My guesses goes as follows:
My pick for actual winner
Dark horse / surprise
Who gets my vote

Best Picture
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Actor
Forest Whitaker
Ryan Gosling
Forest Whitaker (it would be a crime if he doesn't win)

Actress
Helen Mirren
Judi Dench
Helen Mirren or Judi Dench (still can't decide)

Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin
Mark Wahlberg
Mark Wahlberg (not his best role, but the best role in the film)

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson
Rinko Kikuchi
Rinko Kikuchi

Directing
Martin Scorcese
Paul Greengrass
Martin Scorcese (this is probably the biggest lock of the whole show, in my opinion)

Foreign Language
Pan's Labyrinth
The Lives of Others
N/A (would like Pan to win, but haven't seen it)

Adapted Screenplay
Borat
Children of Men
Children of Men

Original Screenplay
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Babel

Animated
Cars
Happy Feet
Happy Feet

Cinematography
Children of Men
Pan's Labyrinth
Children of Men (how could it not win this?)

Editing
Babel
United 93
United 93

Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean
Pan's Labyrinth
N/A (would say POTC, but haven't seen Pan's yet)

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The Oscars, unfortunately, are a popularity contest. Scorcese's been on everyone's mind for a long time and this is the year I think he should win. The only other major contender (in my mind) is Children of Men and it didn't even get nods for Director or Picture, so what the hell.

I think Babel is overrated. I'm a huge Iñárritu fan, but this movie was better when it was called Amores Perros (or remade in the US as 21 Grams). And I don't feel bad saying this considering Iñárritu himself said he's made the same movie three times.

My only wishes are that Whitaker wins Best Actor and Lubezki wins for Children of Men. My greatest fear is that Will Smith wins. Not that I don't like him or anything, but c'mon.

Superman Returns

I can't wait to see Forest and Helen get their awards while still seated. That would be stuff of legend!

UNBELIEVABLE that United 93 didn't get a best picture nomination. The Oscars BLOW

Hey, at least Click got nominated!

Here's another thing to throw out there. Of the 5 Best Actor nominees, only Leonardo DiCaprio's film, Blood Diamond, received more than 1 nomination. I can't remember if there's been an actor/actress win and only have that film's nomination. But, Whitaker has won everything, so I'm not thinking upset here, but it's another one of the many items that jumps out at you. This group of nominees have broken alot of Oscar streaks.

Now, can Little Miss Sunshine end that 26 year streak of the Best Picture winner also having an Editing nomination? With the way they've broken up alot of these patterns makes me think anything is possible this year. LMS is the one film I am rooting against though because it doesn't belong.

If anyone is interested, you can watch two Animation Nominees on Youtube: Little Matchgirl and No Time for Nuts, and on Ifilm you can one nominee in the live action short film: Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea).

Kinda good, but after last year's nominees, this year (so far) seems weak, as short films go, but I still need to see the rest. Anyone know of more links or screenings?

My Oscar-watching group make it a point to see all the best picture nominees.

I'd like to thank the Academy for not making me sit through Dreamgirls, which I have zero interest in seeing.

I think they're trying to make up for making me sit through Capote last year.

I'm still puzzled by DiCaprio being nominated for Blood Diamond. I thought the movie was good and he was good in it but there's no way that was an Oscar nominated performance.

And how can they leave out Volver for best foreign film??? At least I'm glad that Pan's Laberynth was nominated.

I don't like many of the nominees (and some got snubbed), but I'll probably still watch anyways...

For those that play Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Oscar Nominee options are now active.

I thought Capote was really good. I also make it a point to see all the Best Picture nominees. I've seen 4 of them so far, and will see Letters on opening night (Feb 22 in NZ). I also try and make sure I see at least 4/5 of the acting and directing nominees.

Pipe dream, but I was hoping that my favorite film of the year - Thank You For Smoking - would get some love; at least best adapted screenplay. Oh, well.

I remember when another Fox Searchlight film I was rooting for was totally snubbed of any Oscar nods, the semi-creepy One Hour Photo, which I thought should have gotten Robin Williams a Best Actor nod, Best Picture nod, Best Director nod for Mark Romanek, Best Original Score, Best Film Editing and Best Supporting Actress nod for Connie Nielsen. One Hour Photo somehow just went and flew totally under the radar with the Academy voters, maybe it was to depressing and creepy for them to handle.

Little Match girl was removed

i believe the last time was in 1995 when Jessica Lange won Best Actress for Blue Sky as the only nomination for that film. The last actor was Michael Douglas in 1988 for Wall Street with the only nomination.

I'm surprised so many think Scorsese is a lock for director this year. And mybe he does win. The competition doesn't seem too stiff. But, many people were saying the same things during his last two nominations (for Gangs of New York and The Aviator). The only two people I could see beating Scorsese are Iñárritu (if Babel starts sweeping all the best film nominations) or Eastwood (though the lack of a DGA nomination seem like a kiss of death). I guess I'll wait until the DGA's to see if this truly is Scorsese's year.

Letters is going to be a real dark horse. With it being snubbed for all the guilds we can't really read it's momentum like we can the other 4 nominees. Only those in the academy will know how much support it has. But the way I see it:

- Babel will win none of the guild awards (I guess you could say it has a slim, slim chance at the director's guild award), but it has the most nominations among Best Pic contenders.

- The Queen may win WGA (Original).

- Little Miss Sunshine COULD win SAG Ensemble, and is a firm candidate to steal the WGA (Original) award from The Queen. This would give it a big push in the Best Pic race.

- The Departed is probably in it's lowest level of buzz at the moment. But we'll see how things are when it wins the SAG Ensemble award, Director's Guild Award and Writer's Guild award for Adapted Screenplay. I think these will put it in firm favouritism for Best Picture. But as I say, with Letters not up for any of these awards it'll be hard to judge where it stands in the race.

I'd figure Babel has a very good chance to win the SAG award, as it's ensemble cast is the perfect type of award for the categorey.

Regarding Babel - it's not really an ensemble, it's a collective group of great performances. The characters don't really interact together too much - in fact, the point of the movie is that they don't.

Little Miss Sunshine is the best ensemble in the traditional sense of the word, but The Departed has plenty of scenes where characters are all together and interacting with each other.

Best Ensemble - Little Miss Sunshine
Best Actor - Forrest Whittaker
Best Actress- Helen Mirren
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson

I think unless there is a major upset, this is pretty much a lock for the acting categories. The nominees were pretty much identical (except SAG had Leo instead of Mark Walhberg for Sup. Actor).

I'm going to right off Little Miss Sunshine's chances even more. The film is only nominated for 4 awards: Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor & Actress. Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson have won every single award there is (include the SAG), so they are heavily favored. Alan Arkin is the only shot for a LMS upset. In the writing category, LMS is up against Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Pan's Labyrinth, and The Queen. I don't see it beating Babel or Letters, which I believe one of these 2 will get as their consolation prize. That leaves only Picture. What are the chances a movie wins for Best Picture and nothing else? 0%?

The more I look these over, the more I feel it's between The Departed and Babel, with Letters from Iwo Jima playing spoiler. Scorsese, imo, has Director finally locked up. So for me, the other important race is Editing and Screenplay. If we go by the 26 year Editing streak relating to the Picture winner, then that knocks out Letters. I think if Babel or Departed wins Editing, they win Picture.

Departed looks to be a lock for Screenplay and Director. That leaves Picture and Editing. No chance of Wahlberg winning Supporting. So if Departed wins Editing, I think it has Picture as well.

well there was that one time in 1932 when Grand Hotel won Best Picture and wasn't even nominated for anything else.

Fuck the SAG. Once all the buzz dies down how fucking embarassed is everyone going to be when they look back to the year when Arkin, Breslin, Collette, Carrell, Kinnear, and Dano beat an ensemble on Screen Legends (Nicholson, Sheen, Baldwin, Winstone), and younger actors who finally showed their worth (DiCaprio, Damon, Wahlberg) that all gave terrific performances. Fuck the SAG. This is an embarassment. I'm not just pulling the all-star cast card here, the performances in The Departed were far better, all-star cast or not.