I hate the film but predicted it for one more nom that it actually got (thought Don Cheadle would get nomm'ed too).

My predicted wins:

4 wins BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, including Best Film, Directing, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

2 wins for CRASH, GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK, KING KONG and THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA

Everything else gets just one, but it will be spread quite evenly.

Can't say I'm mad about anything, except Kong not getting more nods. They really spread things out as all the Picture nominees got several nods. Also, the Picture and Director matched up, not happened since 1981, I believe.

If I had to make my final picks today, this is how I see it:

Brokeback Mountain gets: Picture, Director, Cinematography, could get Screenplay and Score

Crash gets: Screenplay and Editing

Capote gets: Actor and could get Screenplay ahead of BM

Good Night and Good luck & Munich get 0 wins.

One surprise is only 2 of the 5 Picture nominees got an Editing nomination.

Heres my pics...

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
CRASH

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE (Id rather FH win for Transamerica)

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
CRASH

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN (didnt care for the story, but this was wonderful)

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
PRIDE & PREJUDICE (it deserves something!!)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
STAR WARS: EPISODE III REVENGE OF THE SITH

ACHIEVEMENT IN ORIGINAL SCORE
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

ACHIEVEMENT IN ORIGINAL SONG
"In the Deep" - CRASH

The other tech awards, I think KK will take them.

Crash will get Screenplay over GN&GL, I think. That will be its consolation prize.

Nothing will dominate on March 5th though. Several movies will get a piece of the pie, just like in 2000.

She was excellent and definately deserved a nomination. I wouldn't be sad if she won. Pride and Prejudice was an excellent movie and I loathe period movies like that.

There's absolutely no way CRASH can win Best Picture without winning either a Screenplay or a Directing nom. There's zero precedence for it.

And Dolly Parton will win Best Song, because it's Dolly Parton.

By the way, Memoirs of a Geisha got 6 Nominations too.

I have to see that, Syriana, BM, and Match Point soon.

I still think Brokeback Mountain will win. 1, it has the most nominations, and 2, it received 3 acting nominations. No other film can say either of those. Of course, not getting an Editing nomination tells me that the Academy doesn't think it's that far ahead as some think. Otherwise, it would've gotten more than 8 nods.

Ah, is that in the rules or something. :p

My original was to pick Crash for Screenplay, but I think they will award GC for it (and not give him the supporting actor).

I havent seen Munich or Match Point. I will see Munich this week (maybe tonite).

I still think Clooney will win Supporting Actor.

The guy has a Best Director nomination and his movie got a Best Picture nomination. How else to reward him? Cinderella Man isn't an Academy favorite.

I'm not so sure Reese Witherspoon is a total lock, considering it was left out of the big 2 slots. Huffman could upset.

No.

http://www.oscar.com/nominees/films.html

Geisha

Art Direction
Cinematography
Costume Design
Music (Score)
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing

yep, that adds up to 6

No, the rule is simple - directing and screenplay is considered much more important to a film than editing. Whether it is right or wrong, this is the prevailing idea.

Keira was terrific in Pride & Prejudice :up:

Emily Mortimer > Scarlett Johansson.. though Johansson is so damn hot.

:down: near shut out for Match Point.

:up: Batman Begins getting a nom.

Gladiator won Picture, but lost in Directing, Screenplay, and Editing.

Its only other big win was Actor. So the rules don't always apply.

Yeah, im still thinking that PG will get it because of his Sideways snub.

I hope not, but I really think this is how they will award Walk the Line. I think

Huffman was better and I think should win, but possibly the subject matter is a bit much for the Academy (mainly old men ;)).

I wouldn't call Huffman an upset; she won the Golden Globe so I think she is definitely a strong second.

I think the visual effects will come down to Kong and Narnia. I am surprised SW:ROTS didn't even make the cut; that leaves the PT with zip for its visuals.

Ah - looks like they made a mistake on the official website! Chronicles of Narnia was wrongly picked for Sound Editing.

Thank you. :)

I know im going out on a limb with my picks, but im a risk taker. ;)

So a hip hop song is always nominated now? Are they going to give a retroactive lifetime achievement award to "Fight the Power" someday?

No Grizzly Man? Was it ineligible for some reason, perhaps for using pre-existing footage? I would love to have seen Werner hobnobbing with Hollywood's most plastic.

Reese should win. Not even a question. And big thumbs up to Amy Adams. She had BETTER win! Best performance of the year in any category.

Betcha it's the lowest rated Oscar show in history.

I thought I remembered hearing that it wasnt eligible. It was really good though.

I think Enron will win that one. I just watched it last week. Good doc.

GRIZZLY was eligible but was not shortlisted for consideration. Totally idiotic.

The Golden Globes had a higher rating than last year's, so I expect this year's telecast to be better than last year's too. Seriously who could get excited over a M$B vs. AVIATOR battle? At least people are gonna pitch BROKEBACK against CRASH, which will be more interesting. Plus, everything this year is more political (the least political film was snubbed - WALK THE LINE), including their docu choice of DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE (that was surprising!)

Now I have to go see it to see if it deserved all those nods.

This will be a fun show to watch. 2005 had some really good movies. And the Academy chose the smaller films this year. Maybe that will be a trend. That box office and advertising doesn't matter, but the films themselves.

Werner Herzog did win the Director's Guild for Documentary. That's great.