I think King Kong make at least $200 million at the U.S. box office, and probably more. It has name recognition (everyone knows that "King Kong" is about a giant ape, even if they've never seen any of the previous movies with Kong), a star director, and plenty of spectacle for the Holiday movie season. I'm pretty sure this movie will do fantastic box office, and will have enough quality in it and good word-of-mouth to have better legs than the usual, overhyped Hollywood blockbuster.

(And I still remember when people were predicting Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring would be a huge box office flop, so much so that the final two chapters would be be dropped from the schedule and would premiere on TV instead. We now know how that worked out, and it had everything list above, except Peter Jackson was not a "star director" back when LOTR first appeared in 2001.)

So, is $100M domestically now a bomb (i.e. without international and DVD sales)?

It will be for this level of budget!

I tend to think 250-300 easy...

Also, don't forget all the free Kong tickets that are floating around. There was one in each of these DVD releases: Frighteners Director's Cut, Jurassic Park Adventure Pack, The Mummy Collection, and the Tremors Attack Pack. Those will generate even more ticket sales from people who have one or two free tickets, but take friends....

I don't see how it could possibly bomb unless it gets terrible reviews or the audience hates it. This is an epic movie by a well known director (coming off a mega-hit trilogy). The trailers for the movie have been amazing and it's being released during the holiday month -- it's just aching to do REALLY REALLY well.

If this were Vegas, I certainly wouldn't be betting on a bomb. In fact, at this point, I'm pretty sure it's going to be a major blockbuster.

It's getting amazing reviews. Anyway King Kong is riding on 70 years of name recognition. There is no way it will flop.

I think the movie will break records...... early reviews are the movie has a mixture of all the elements of a great film

$300M+ easy

Thats pretty much it. Everyone knows about this movie and everyone wants to see it. No way in hell it bombs.

I'm gonna guess at least $250 million. This is a big event movie and Jackson has been on a roll lately.

It will be nothing like what happened with Godzilla because Jackson isn't a hack like Emmerich is.

No, but it will be the bomb!

One of the most remarkable Kong reviews just came in. Jeffrey Wells, infamous in some LOTR fan circles for constantly going on against the three films and the idea of fantasy films in general, has written a positive review of Kong that actually includes a reconsideration of Jackson as a director! This is the movie reviewer equivalent of the Grinch's heart miraculously expanding. If Wells likes it, it is safe to say the general public will also.

King Kong opens on a Wednesday, which means by Monday the 19th, it will almost certainly have passed the $100 million mark. So regardless of how good or bad it might be, it's definitley going to make $200 million plus by the time it has finished its theatrical run.

I personally think the movie is going to get mixed reviews - both from critics and fans, but I have little doubt it's going to be a box office success. It's really a question of how big of a hit the movie will be, rather than if it will be a hit.

Pretty sure its not going to bomb, king kong is known and loved world wide. This movie will open huge, and will do more then 200 million here and over seas it will be huge.

Well, before Fellowship of the Ring came out I started a thread thinking that it might bomb...and...uh...well...Peter Jackson made me look like a fool. Now I'm his biggest cheerleader. Go King Kong!!! Yah Team!

I think it will gross $250MM easily. Easily. King Kong is a monster movie and a romance in one, there's no way this can't work. Plus, it has an actual good director.

I mean, Godzilla made $135MM and that's GODZILLA for Pete's sake.

Jackson hasn't let us down yet.....oh please work

It won't bomb. Even if reviews aren't good (and so far they're far from that) it'll still make 200 million US, and at least 50% more than that internationally.

So at worst, I don't see this making less than 500 million. Universal is going to make back their money I think no matter what.

The only problem it might have is going up against Chronicles of Narnia, but they're probably two different audiences anyway. There's really nothing else of note coming out this Christmas, therefore, it will do well.

You want a bomb? How about Collin Farrell's "The New World". I can smell that stinker from here, and it doesn't come out until January.

I really doubt anybody is expecting a Terence Malick film with a 30 million dollar budget to be some blockbuster movie. It's just not that type of film.

I doubt it'll be a bad movie though.

I wouldn't say that really. Narnia is an old book just about every kid read while growing up. King Kong is a throw back to the old Kong/Lost World crowd.

Shit, it even has dinosaurs. Kids love dinosaurs. Kids also love stories like narnia. Especially with the LOTR feel that both of them will have. One because it is from the same guy who brought us LOTR and the other because... it is Weta and has that epic feel to it.

Both are tapping into the same sort of demo really. It's going to be interesting how they bash against each other.

Sure, Kong may get more of the date crowd, but they will both be high interest for all.

I'm with you, I think KK will make well over the $300m mark for domestic release alone.

The only real negative w.o.m. could be from the length, and maybe the pace. I can imagine people bitching "I almost fell asleep it so was long!" or "Too much story, I wanted to see more action!" Granted these people may be idiots, but if enough people griped about it it might hurt somewhat. I think a big opening is cetain, but everythign after that depends on quality.

Well, if it's action packed between fighting with dino's to having kong wreck some shit up in the city. So it doesn't sound like it will drawn out boring till you get to the city.

The original Kong was only 100 minutes long. I think a three hour remake might be a little much.