Who thinks King Kong will bomb?
12-04-05, 10:29 PM
#1
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Who thinks King Kong will bomb?
This is a separate thread so it doesn't thread crap on the other 'Kong kicks butt" threads.
Who here will admit to not thinking Kong is going to be the monster hit some think it will? I want to see it but I just don't think it will do well. They are already $210M invested so it has to AT LEAST get back it's budget and marketing $$$. Given that the movie is 3 hours long, that means it will have less showing than most other movies. I just don't think the general public wants to see a 3 hour moster movie which is the exact same story as the old one. No matter what fans try to come up with, Kong is just a giant monster movie when you get down to it. While hype on these movie sites might be huge, fanboys alone can't make a movie a hit. If they could, Serenity should have don't insane business since 95% of Internet fans seem to think that Josh Weadon(SP) craps pure gold and he can do no wrong.
I think it will get maybe $130-$150 in the theater.
Who here will admit to not thinking Kong is going to be the monster hit some think it will? I want to see it but I just don't think it will do well. They are already $210M invested so it has to AT LEAST get back it's budget and marketing $$$. Given that the movie is 3 hours long, that means it will have less showing than most other movies. I just don't think the general public wants to see a 3 hour moster movie which is the exact same story as the old one. No matter what fans try to come up with, Kong is just a giant monster movie when you get down to it. While hype on these movie sites might be huge, fanboys alone can't make a movie a hit. If they could, Serenity should have don't insane business since 95% of Internet fans seem to think that Josh Weadon(SP) craps pure gold and he can do no wrong.
I think it will get maybe $130-$150 in the theater.
12-04-05, 10:46 PM
#4
DVD Talk Limited Edition
I saw a couple of exteneded scenes from this movie on tv where Kong is fighting two T-rexs' and let me just say that it looked amazing......every time Kong switched the girl from hand to hand while fighting, It looked absolutely incredible.
I honestly think that word of mouth will help this flick out a lot and by that I mean the hype that will be generated from the general audience (pretty much like titanic).
I normally don't bite on these flicks but the previews alone make me want to see it. I just think it looks perfect. The 3 hour run time doesn't effect me at all either - If this movie shows a lot of what I've seen in the previews, I wouldn't care if it was 5 hours.
I honestly think that word of mouth will help this flick out a lot and by that I mean the hype that will be generated from the general audience (pretty much like titanic).
I normally don't bite on these flicks but the previews alone make me want to see it. I just think it looks perfect. The 3 hour run time doesn't effect me at all either - If this movie shows a lot of what I've seen in the previews, I wouldn't care if it was 5 hours.
12-04-05, 10:50 PM
#6
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I don't think it's going to bust the box office open or anything. But I don't think it will pay for itself on opening weekend either. I for one can wait to rent it on DVD.
That said, I think in the long run it will probably be a success. Add to the box office sales all the merchandise and the video game and stuff. And then the DVD later on... this movie won't have a good opening weekend (in my opinion) but it most certainly won't bomb.
That said, I think in the long run it will probably be a success. Add to the box office sales all the merchandise and the video game and stuff. And then the DVD later on... this movie won't have a good opening weekend (in my opinion) but it most certainly won't bomb.
12-04-05, 10:59 PM
#7
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For Kong to Bomb, it would have to go under $100 million, and I don't see it. Exactly how high it goes remains to be seen, but I would think $225-$250 million is possible.
12-04-05, 11:03 PM
#8
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I don't think it will make less than $100 million, but I don't think it will be a top grosser. Reminds me of the Godzilla hype.
I actually have zero interest in seeing this film.
I actually have zero interest in seeing this film.
12-04-05, 11:28 PM
#11
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I can't see King Kong doing less than $200 million, and I think it could hit $300+ million. Think of the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Long, LONG movies - but HUGE hits. Frankly, I was stunned by their success since I had no interest at all in seeing them.
Kong looks like an absolute epic. The visuals are breathtaking - absolutely stunning, and the story is a classic. They have fleshed out the original and given it more dramatic style. Don't forget, the original was an early talkie, and the dialogue was still fairly stilted and wooden like most talkies of that era. The character development was only marginally better than most silent movies, which, again, was very common in the early talkie era. There was a lot to build on, and it looks like Jackson & company did just that.
So my prediction is $285 Million in the U.S. and another $250 million in the rest of the world. If not more.
I'd say the odds of it "bombing" at the box office (less than $150 million U.S. box office) are VERY slim.
Kong looks like an absolute epic. The visuals are breathtaking - absolutely stunning, and the story is a classic. They have fleshed out the original and given it more dramatic style. Don't forget, the original was an early talkie, and the dialogue was still fairly stilted and wooden like most talkies of that era. The character development was only marginally better than most silent movies, which, again, was very common in the early talkie era. There was a lot to build on, and it looks like Jackson & company did just that.
So my prediction is $285 Million in the U.S. and another $250 million in the rest of the world. If not more.
I'd say the odds of it "bombing" at the box office (less than $150 million U.S. box office) are VERY slim.
12-04-05, 11:54 PM
#13
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Originally Posted by The Ferret
I'm going with $250+, so no.
agreed. I'm more concerned about Narnia not doing big numbers opening weekend and having the follow with Kong the following weekend.
12-05-05, 01:43 AM
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I think it will make more money than most movies did this year...however, given its huge budget, plus whatever the marketing cost is, I don't think it will be seen as a huge smash. More just making a decent profit for all involved. I doubt if we see Peter Jackson's "Son of Kong" in two years because this one did so well, though (not that we were going to anyway, but you get my point).
12-05-05, 02:15 AM
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This movie will be a hit.Already people have been talking a lot about it in Japan.Toshiba has been promoting this movie for a tie up in the movie a lot.I am sure it will be a hit,if not the same amount of movie that Harry Porter made on Goblet of Fire
12-05-05, 02:23 AM
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What's this, Jackson Backlash on DVD Talk? Say it isn't so! Has one of the 3 rules of DVD Talk finally been broken? 
On topic: I don't think so. He's got too good of a following right now for this to bomb.
On topic: I don't think so. He's got too good of a following right now for this to bomb.
12-05-05, 03:04 AM
#21
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It's doomed! Doomed I says!
oh wait....this isn't the Mr. & Mrs. Smith thread.
sorry.
oh wait....this isn't the Mr. & Mrs. Smith thread.
sorry.
12-05-05, 05:01 AM
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I'm curious why the OP thinks this is simply a monster flick? Was Jurassic Park a monster flick in your eyes too? I would classify it more as an action/adventure movies with a bit of drama and romance thrown in for good measure.
I also have a feeling that the one thing that will help it along is that it's told in the past and isn't taking place in modern times like the 76 version tried to do. The set and costume design give this film a look that you don't see much (if at all) any more and it just might draw in more viewers looking for a film that doesn't look like all of the other stuff being released recently.
I also have a feeling that the one thing that will help it along is that it's told in the past and isn't taking place in modern times like the 76 version tried to do. The set and costume design give this film a look that you don't see much (if at all) any more and it just might draw in more viewers looking for a film that doesn't look like all of the other stuff being released recently.
