I bought all three I mentioned as longs.

I always might change my position if they move way up. Of course I would assume everyone would do the same.

Exor4 could pull in those numbers to make it. I think that it can do atleast 20 just on the name alone and folks forgetting the other crappy sequels by now

without a paddle has the chance but I'm not sure I want to risk it.

New player: DVDTalk_CharlesC

In case anyone's keeping score, I longed WOPAD and EXOR4 and shorted the other three (OPENW, BENJI, and GRDST). Because real men play all the openers.

First time since I, Robot that I've tried holding a movie over the weekend. Managed to sell Without a Paddle at around $33 and rebought just before the halt at $29. 95% of my portfolio in Without a Paddle long and Open Water short is either going to destroy me or save me.

Figure I was up about 35% in one week when I took huge chances like I'm doing this week, and ever since I've been playing it safe, I've lost money like a drunk. This weekend is either going to pay off extremely well or end up wiping out all my gains.

What's up with the Hero call, by the way? I felt extremely safe shorting it, because I just don't see a movie like that breaking $5mil. I'm guessing it's just the movie crowd drooling over anything with Tarantino's name near it, but I sure don't see much buzz or mainstream success in the US for that movie. Sure as hell don't see it making $15mil next weekend with Anaconda taking a fair chunk of the mainstream action audience pie.

Anaconda's is going to be a hit. the general public loves shit like that. They can't get enough of it. Hero is a must short cause I really doubt it will even hit anywhere over that 10 million call

I flopped my pick on OPENW at the last second. I'm now short on all five.

...I'll be doing by part by holding a protest rally at my theatre a la Passion of the Christ. "WITHOUT A PADDLE IS OFFENSIVE TO....HUMANS!"

I think that all are hard to call, but if anything is to long, I think that it would be Open Water. Hopefully we will see some Friday prelims soon.

Exorcist $7.1
Without A Paddle $4.7
Open Water $3.8
Garden State $0.923
Benji $0.355

Here are my guesses, going on calculations and assumptions:

Long

Exorcist (will see a Saturday dropoff due to bad word of mouth, but should still hit the HSX price) Adjust up $11-$14

Without A Paddle Adjust up $7 - $10

Short

Garden State Adjust down $2-$5
Benji Adjust down $2-$5
Open Water Adjust down $7-$10

Here's the analysis:

==========
Benji! Off the Leash Friday numbers: $0.36
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $0.90
BENJI Halt: $6.51 Adjust: $2.61 Change: ($3.90)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $0.97
BENJI Halt: $6.51 Adjust: $2.82 Change: ($3.69)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $1.04
BENJI Halt: $6.51 Adjust: $3.03 Change: ($3.48)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $1.12
BENJI Halt: $6.51 Adjust: $3.24 Change: ($3.27)
==========
Exorcist:The Beginning Friday numbers: $7.10
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $17.75
EXOR4 Halt: $38.81 Adjust: $51.48 Change: $12.67
EXOCA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $0.31 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.31)
EXOPU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $2.25 Change: ($2.87)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $19.17
EXOR4 Halt: $38.81 Adjust: $55.59 Change: $16.78
EXOCA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $0.31 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.31)
EXOPU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.83 Change: ($4.29)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $20.59
EXOR4 Halt: $38.81 Adjust: $59.71 Change: $20.90
EXOCA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $0.31 Delist: $0.59 Change: $0.28
EXOPU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $22.01
EXOR4 Halt: $38.81 Adjust: $63.83 Change: $25.02
EXOCA Strike: $20.00 Halt: $0.31 Delist: $2.01 Change: $1.70
EXOPU Strike: $20.00 Halt: $5.12 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($5.12)
==========
Previous Box Office: $2.64
Garden State Friday numbers: $0.92
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $2.30
GRDST Halt: $12.86 Adjust: $9.31 Change: ($3.55)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $2.48
GRDST Halt: $12.86 Adjust: $9.84 Change: ($3.02)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $2.67
GRDST Halt: $12.86 Adjust: $10.38 Change: ($2.48)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $2.85
GRDST Halt: $12.86 Adjust: $10.91 Change: ($1.95)
==========
Previous Box Office: $2.53
Open Water Friday numbers: $3.80
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $9.50
OPENW Halt: $41.35 Adjust: $30.08 Change: ($11.27)
OPECA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $4.73 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($4.73)
OPEPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.44 Delist: $0.50 Change: $0.06

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $10.26
OPENW Halt: $41.35 Adjust: $32.28 Change: ($9.07)
OPECA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $4.73 Delist: $0.26 Change: ($4.47)
OPEPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.44 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.44)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $11.02
OPENW Halt: $41.35 Adjust: $34.49 Change: ($6.86)
OPECA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $4.73 Delist: $1.02 Change: ($3.71)
OPEPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.44 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.44)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $11.78
OPENW Halt: $41.35 Adjust: $36.69 Change: ($4.66)
OPECA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $4.73 Delist: $1.78 Change: ($2.95)
OPEPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.44 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.44)
==========
WIthout A Paddle Friday numbers: $4.70
Internal Multiplier: 2.5 Weekend Estimate: $11.75
WOPAD Halt: $28.71 Adjust: $34.08 Change: $5.36
WOPCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $1.75 Change: ($2.20)
WOPPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.96 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.96)

Internal Multiplier: 2.7 Weekend Estimate: $12.69
WOPAD Halt: $28.71 Adjust: $36.80 Change: $8.09
WOPCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $2.69 Change: ($1.26)
WOPPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.96 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.96)

Internal Multiplier: 2.9 Weekend Estimate: $13.63
WOPAD Halt: $28.71 Adjust: $39.53 Change: $10.82
WOPCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $3.63 Change: ($0.32)
WOPPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.96 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.96)

Internal Multiplier: 3.1 Weekend Estimate: $14.57
WOPAD Halt: $28.71 Adjust: $42.25 Change: $13.54
WOPCA Strike: $10.00 Halt: $3.95 Delist: $4.57 Change: $0.62
WOPPU Strike: $10.00 Halt: $0.96 Delist: $0.00 Change: ($0.96)

It's also up at HSJ.

Looks like I was off on my WOPAD prediction, but I shouldn't lose too much I don't think - should open again at $32 or so. EXOR4 is the big winner. It'll adjust to around $55-60.

two out of three are not bad

I just hope the numbers hold up over the weekend. I expect Benji to do the top multiplier since it will be a sat/sun day movie anyway and not a friday night movie.

I might even hold it till delist since it will be so low anyway and it should exceed the adjust price over 4 weeks.

I am hoping that EXOR4 hits that $20 since daddy needs a new pair of shoes

WOPAD was just luck. I really think it will do slightly better on Saturday than Friday with a nice adjust.

Hit the two that counted this weekend. Garden state was a toss up, but then again not to much is going to be lost there.

Knew Exorcist will hit it big simply cause of the name appeal and it's been to long for folks to remember that an exorcist without the little girl just flat out sucks.

I got WOPAD but that's all. I've been flirting with $11M all week long going over and under each day.

Damnit, I knew I shouldn't have held on to that Open Water stock. At least W/out A Paddle will help offset that a bit.

I'm looking at the just released Saturday numbers
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/c...4-08-21&p=.htm

but something doesn't seem right - some of the films improved their take from Friday by 50%. YUGIO seems to have 87% better which just seems astounding.

Sounds right. Yugio would be a kids movie and would do far better on a Saturday than a Friday.

OPENW will be a slight adjust either way.

Same with GRDST.

The only two big adjusts will be EXOR4 and WOPAD.

Except that YUGIO already went up 28% on Friday.
Same thing with COLAT and MCHUR - they went up 80% on Friday and then an additional 50% on Saturday.

So, unless people who got bored of the Olympics are hitting the theatres in droves, I smell a bug somewhere.

Friday box office numbers are always up significantly from Thursday numbers. Even for kid flicks, even in the summer.

I am happy to have made two good decisions

I wish I had stayed away from little Benji, However I think it will delist at a larger number so I probably will just hold it snice it is such a small amount.

You got all of them right this weekend

Best day ever for me. I have a real chance of getting over $2 million gain for the day.


I probably will not do it. I just have a chance

I realize almost every film's take goes up on Friday - what I'm saying is the percentage up on Saturday seem unusually high.

If you look at the weekend numbers, BORN2 fell by 54%, 40.5% and 40.2% after opening numbers - this weekend it only fell 22.7%.
Similarly, MCHUR went down 48.8% and 41.4% after opening and this weekend it only went down some 30%.

So, I have a feeling the actuals this week will be lower across the board.

I'm just happy that it was a million dollar day. yay