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07-01-04 | 11:10 PM
#101
Suspended
Here's how bonds work. A bond has a Trailing Average Gross, known as a TAG. This is calculated by taking the gross of the star's last five movies and averaging them (i.e. adding them all up and dividing by five). There are special rules for bonds with less than five movies, but I don't remember them offhand -- I think it's the average for three or four films, but a star with only two films has its TAG calculated by adding up the grosses of the two films and dividing by three instead of two. Bonds don't adjust for their first film, so the TAG of those doesn't matter.
Every week, movies delist -- usually on Monday, but this week it will be Tuesday due to the long weekend. The day after movies delist, all the bonds of stars in those movies adjust to their new TAG. Since Triple S asked about Bill Murray, let's use him as an example.
Bill Murray currently has 5 films in his TAG:
HAMLT -- $1.57
CHARL -- $125.31
OSJON -- $13.60
TNNBM -- $52.35
LSTNT -- $44.57
This gives him a TAG of ($1.57+$125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57)/5=$47.48 Currently, he is trading at $56.19 because market forces moved his price up since he adjusted for LSTNT.
On Tuesday, GARFI will delist. On Wednesday, BMURR will adjust to his new TAG. Since a TAG only has at most five movies in it, the oldest movie -- HAMLT -- will drop out of his TAG, and the TAG will be recalculated. Since GARFI is currently priced at $65.36, that's what we'll assume it will delist at. BMURR's TAG will then be ($125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57+$65.36)/5=$60.23. (This calculation is done for you on the HSBR page, but it's good to understand how it works). This means that, as HSBR indicates, he will adjust up by a little over $4, and provide you a 1.39 DRoI if you buy now and hold him until Wednesday when he adjusts.
What's really interesting is that 28 days after that, BMURR will adjust again for COFCG. CHARL -- which was a summer blockbuster -- will drop out of his TAG, and be replaced with this indie film that's barely grossed $1.5 million so far and probably won't cross $2 million. That means he'll drop down by about $25 according to HSBR, providing you with a 1.13 DROI. But if you're a smart trader, you'll realize that a lot of people will see this and short him after Wednesday's adjust, so most of that $25 drop will occur immediately. 3 or 4 days later, he may have already dropped $15 of those $25, at which point you might decide it's not worth it to continue to hold the bond for another 3 and a half weeks just to pick up those extra $10.
The best deals in bonds are usually the stars who appear in two movies delisting within a few weeks of each other. Thandie Newton was in Shade, which delisted last week, and Riddick, which delists this week. The resulting change gives her a DROI of 1.6 over the course of that week, though the bond has sped up quick enough that if you bought in now, the DROI would only be 1.43 (still a pretty decent investment).
Lawrence Fishburn is another good example. Last year, when he adjusted for MTRX2, Hoodlum dropped out of his TAG, so his TAG shot up. Then he adjusted for Mystic River -- which had good box office, but not as good as MATRX, which dropped out of his TAG. That made him a good post-adjust short after he adjusted for MTRX2. Then, after he adjusted for MYSTC, he became a long, since his next adjust was for MTRX3, which would be replacing "Once in the Life," a small film that only grossed $50,000.
LFISH illustrates two other good points about Starbonds. First, for purposes of calculating TAGs, films are capped at $250 million. Thus, even though MTRX2 took in about $280 at the box office, it's treated as $250 for purposes of calculating the TAG.
Second, always use the total B.O. as of the time of the current adjust. That is, when Fishburne adjusts next year for Assault on Precinct 13 (that's currently his next project), the TAG calculation will use $90 million as MYSTC's box office, because that's how much it took in by the time it left theaters -- even though it had only made about $33 million by the time LFISH adjusted for it last fall.
Hopefully, that sheds a little light on bonds.
Every week, movies delist -- usually on Monday, but this week it will be Tuesday due to the long weekend. The day after movies delist, all the bonds of stars in those movies adjust to their new TAG. Since Triple S asked about Bill Murray, let's use him as an example.
Bill Murray currently has 5 films in his TAG:
HAMLT -- $1.57
CHARL -- $125.31
OSJON -- $13.60
TNNBM -- $52.35
LSTNT -- $44.57
This gives him a TAG of ($1.57+$125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57)/5=$47.48 Currently, he is trading at $56.19 because market forces moved his price up since he adjusted for LSTNT.
On Tuesday, GARFI will delist. On Wednesday, BMURR will adjust to his new TAG. Since a TAG only has at most five movies in it, the oldest movie -- HAMLT -- will drop out of his TAG, and the TAG will be recalculated. Since GARFI is currently priced at $65.36, that's what we'll assume it will delist at. BMURR's TAG will then be ($125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57+$65.36)/5=$60.23. (This calculation is done for you on the HSBR page, but it's good to understand how it works). This means that, as HSBR indicates, he will adjust up by a little over $4, and provide you a 1.39 DRoI if you buy now and hold him until Wednesday when he adjusts.
What's really interesting is that 28 days after that, BMURR will adjust again for COFCG. CHARL -- which was a summer blockbuster -- will drop out of his TAG, and be replaced with this indie film that's barely grossed $1.5 million so far and probably won't cross $2 million. That means he'll drop down by about $25 according to HSBR, providing you with a 1.13 DROI. But if you're a smart trader, you'll realize that a lot of people will see this and short him after Wednesday's adjust, so most of that $25 drop will occur immediately. 3 or 4 days later, he may have already dropped $15 of those $25, at which point you might decide it's not worth it to continue to hold the bond for another 3 and a half weeks just to pick up those extra $10.
The best deals in bonds are usually the stars who appear in two movies delisting within a few weeks of each other. Thandie Newton was in Shade, which delisted last week, and Riddick, which delists this week. The resulting change gives her a DROI of 1.6 over the course of that week, though the bond has sped up quick enough that if you bought in now, the DROI would only be 1.43 (still a pretty decent investment).
Lawrence Fishburn is another good example. Last year, when he adjusted for MTRX2, Hoodlum dropped out of his TAG, so his TAG shot up. Then he adjusted for Mystic River -- which had good box office, but not as good as MATRX, which dropped out of his TAG. That made him a good post-adjust short after he adjusted for MTRX2. Then, after he adjusted for MYSTC, he became a long, since his next adjust was for MTRX3, which would be replacing "Once in the Life," a small film that only grossed $50,000.
LFISH illustrates two other good points about Starbonds. First, for purposes of calculating TAGs, films are capped at $250 million. Thus, even though MTRX2 took in about $280 at the box office, it's treated as $250 for purposes of calculating the TAG.
Second, always use the total B.O. as of the time of the current adjust. That is, when Fishburne adjusts next year for Assault on Precinct 13 (that's currently his next project), the TAG calculation will use $90 million as MYSTC's box office, because that's how much it took in by the time it left theaters -- even though it had only made about $33 million by the time LFISH adjusted for it last fall.
Hopefully, that sheds a little light on bonds.
07-01-04 | 11:12 PM
#102
DVD Talk Godfather
Joined: Jul 2000
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From: City of the lakers.. riots.. and drug dealing cops.. los(t) Angel(e)s. ca.
I hardly ever play openers other then their respected options. I have a better chance guessing if it will make a certain amount of money.
07-02-04 | 01:43 AM
#104
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
Originally posted by JasonF
Here's how bonds work. A bond has a Trailing Average Gross, known as a TAG. This is calculated by taking the gross of the star's last five movies and averaging them (i.e. adding them all up and dividing by five). There are special rules for bonds with less than five movies, but I don't remember them offhand -- I think it's the average for three or four films, but a star with only two films has its TAG calculated by adding up the grosses of the two films and dividing by three instead of two. Bonds don't adjust for their first film, so the TAG of those doesn't matter.
Every week, movies delist -- usually on Monday, but this week it will be Tuesday due to the long weekend. The day after movies delist, all the bonds of stars in those movies adjust to their new TAG. Since Triple S asked about Bill Murray, let's use him as an example.
Bill Murray currently has 5 films in his TAG:
HAMLT -- $1.57
CHARL -- $125.31
OSJON -- $13.60
TNNBM -- $52.35
LSTNT -- $44.57
This gives him a TAG of ($1.57+$125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57)/5=$47.48 Currently, he is trading at $56.19 because market forces moved his price up since he adjusted for LSTNT.
On Tuesday, GARFI will delist. On Wednesday, BMURR will adjust to his new TAG. Since a TAG only has at most five movies in it, the oldest movie -- HAMLT -- will drop out of his TAG, and the TAG will be recalculated. Since GARFI is currently priced at $65.36, that's what we'll assume it will delist at. BMURR's TAG will then be ($125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57+$65.36)/5=$60.23. (This calculation is done for you on the HSBR page, but it's good to understand how it works). This means that, as HSBR indicates, he will adjust up by a little over $4, and provide you a 1.39 DRoI if you buy now and hold him until Wednesday when he adjusts.
What's really interesting is that 28 days after that, BMURR will adjust again for COFCG. CHARL -- which was a summer blockbuster -- will drop out of his TAG, and be replaced with this indie film that's barely grossed $1.5 million so far and probably won't cross $2 million. That means he'll drop down by about $25 according to HSBR, providing you with a 1.13 DROI. But if you're a smart trader, you'll realize that a lot of people will see this and short him after Wednesday's adjust, so most of that $25 drop will occur immediately. 3 or 4 days later, he may have already dropped $15 of those $25, at which point you might decide it's not worth it to continue to hold the bond for another 3 and a half weeks just to pick up those extra $10.
The best deals in bonds are usually the stars who appear in two movies delisting within a few weeks of each other. Thandie Newton was in Shade, which delisted last week, and Riddick, which delists this week. The resulting change gives her a DROI of 1.6 over the course of that week, though the bond has sped up quick enough that if you bought in now, the DROI would only be 1.43 (still a pretty decent investment).
Lawrence Fishburn is another good example. Last year, when he adjusted for MTRX2, Hoodlum dropped out of his TAG, so his TAG shot up. Then he adjusted for Mystic River -- which had good box office, but not as good as MATRX, which dropped out of his TAG. That made him a good post-adjust short after he adjusted for MTRX2. Then, after he adjusted for MYSTC, he became a long, since his next adjust was for MTRX3, which would be replacing "Once in the Life," a small film that only grossed $50,000.
LFISH illustrates two other good points about Starbonds. First, for purposes of calculating TAGs, films are capped at $250 million. Thus, even though MTRX2 took in about $280 at the box office, it's treated as $250 for purposes of calculating the TAG.
Second, always use the total B.O. as of the time of the current adjust. That is, when Fishburne adjusts next year for Assault on Precinct 13 (that's currently his next project), the TAG calculation will use $90 million as MYSTC's box office, because that's how much it took in by the time it left theaters -- even though it had only made about $33 million by the time LFISH adjusted for it last fall.
Hopefully, that sheds a little light on bonds.
Here's how bonds work. A bond has a Trailing Average Gross, known as a TAG. This is calculated by taking the gross of the star's last five movies and averaging them (i.e. adding them all up and dividing by five). There are special rules for bonds with less than five movies, but I don't remember them offhand -- I think it's the average for three or four films, but a star with only two films has its TAG calculated by adding up the grosses of the two films and dividing by three instead of two. Bonds don't adjust for their first film, so the TAG of those doesn't matter.
Every week, movies delist -- usually on Monday, but this week it will be Tuesday due to the long weekend. The day after movies delist, all the bonds of stars in those movies adjust to their new TAG. Since Triple S asked about Bill Murray, let's use him as an example.
Bill Murray currently has 5 films in his TAG:
HAMLT -- $1.57
CHARL -- $125.31
OSJON -- $13.60
TNNBM -- $52.35
LSTNT -- $44.57
This gives him a TAG of ($1.57+$125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57)/5=$47.48 Currently, he is trading at $56.19 because market forces moved his price up since he adjusted for LSTNT.
On Tuesday, GARFI will delist. On Wednesday, BMURR will adjust to his new TAG. Since a TAG only has at most five movies in it, the oldest movie -- HAMLT -- will drop out of his TAG, and the TAG will be recalculated. Since GARFI is currently priced at $65.36, that's what we'll assume it will delist at. BMURR's TAG will then be ($125.31+$13.60+$52.35+$44.57+$65.36)/5=$60.23. (This calculation is done for you on the HSBR page, but it's good to understand how it works). This means that, as HSBR indicates, he will adjust up by a little over $4, and provide you a 1.39 DRoI if you buy now and hold him until Wednesday when he adjusts.
What's really interesting is that 28 days after that, BMURR will adjust again for COFCG. CHARL -- which was a summer blockbuster -- will drop out of his TAG, and be replaced with this indie film that's barely grossed $1.5 million so far and probably won't cross $2 million. That means he'll drop down by about $25 according to HSBR, providing you with a 1.13 DROI. But if you're a smart trader, you'll realize that a lot of people will see this and short him after Wednesday's adjust, so most of that $25 drop will occur immediately. 3 or 4 days later, he may have already dropped $15 of those $25, at which point you might decide it's not worth it to continue to hold the bond for another 3 and a half weeks just to pick up those extra $10.
The best deals in bonds are usually the stars who appear in two movies delisting within a few weeks of each other. Thandie Newton was in Shade, which delisted last week, and Riddick, which delists this week. The resulting change gives her a DROI of 1.6 over the course of that week, though the bond has sped up quick enough that if you bought in now, the DROI would only be 1.43 (still a pretty decent investment).
Lawrence Fishburn is another good example. Last year, when he adjusted for MTRX2, Hoodlum dropped out of his TAG, so his TAG shot up. Then he adjusted for Mystic River -- which had good box office, but not as good as MATRX, which dropped out of his TAG. That made him a good post-adjust short after he adjusted for MTRX2. Then, after he adjusted for MYSTC, he became a long, since his next adjust was for MTRX3, which would be replacing "Once in the Life," a small film that only grossed $50,000.
LFISH illustrates two other good points about Starbonds. First, for purposes of calculating TAGs, films are capped at $250 million. Thus, even though MTRX2 took in about $280 at the box office, it's treated as $250 for purposes of calculating the TAG.
Second, always use the total B.O. as of the time of the current adjust. That is, when Fishburne adjusts next year for Assault on Precinct 13 (that's currently his next project), the TAG calculation will use $90 million as MYSTC's box office, because that's how much it took in by the time it left theaters -- even though it had only made about $33 million by the time LFISH adjusted for it last fall.
Hopefully, that sheds a little light on bonds.
Just trying to make sure I understand this.
so for Kirsten Dunst, her last five movies are...
03/19/2003 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Actor)
12/19/2003 Mona Lisa Smile (Actor)
04/04/2003 Levity (Actor)
05/03/2002 Spider-Man (Actor)
04/12/2002 The Cat's Meow
...and her price is 108.59.
Her 2 newest movies are...
06/30/2004 Spider-Man 2 (Actor)
06/25/2004 Kaena: The Prophecy (Actor)
...So, in four weeks, the cats meow will be dropped, and spiderman II will be added and her price will adjust up right, then 7 or 8 weeks later, Kaena: The Prophecy will delist (I'm assuming this opened in less than 600 theaters, and will be around for 12 weeks right) and SPiderman will be dropped and she will plummet.
is this correct?
07-02-04 | 01:53 AM
#105
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Joined: Jan 2000
Posts: 7,936
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From: Somewhere out there... YES THERE!!!
i can't get rid of shrek 2 bw yet... it's been sooo good to me lol
BWSH2 10000 H$19.04 H$171.41 +1.00 H$1,714,100.00 H$1,523,700.00 +800%
made over 1.5 mil off of it so far
i still have 2 million i can buy stocks with as i don't know what to buy atm
BWSH2 10000 H$19.04 H$171.41 +1.00 H$1,714,100.00 H$1,523,700.00 +800%
made over 1.5 mil off of it so far
i still have 2 million i can buy stocks with as i don't know what to buy atm
07-02-04 | 05:22 AM
#106
DVD Talk Legend
I bought the Shrek 2 BW at $27, and still have it. I really don't understand why more people don't have it. Ditto for a couple of other BWs that have no chance to make their strike price. People need to look at these more.
07-02-04 | 08:25 AM
#107
DVD Talk Hero
Joined: Jun 2000
Posts: 39,852
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1,198 Posts
From: Somewhere between Heaven and Hell
Originally posted by movieking
I bought the Shrek 2 BW at $27, and still have it. I really don't understand why more people don't have it. Ditto for a couple of other BWs that have no chance to make their strike price. People need to look at these more.
I bought the Shrek 2 BW at $27, and still have it. I really don't understand why more people don't have it. Ditto for a couple of other BWs that have no chance to make their strike price. People need to look at these more.
BWDAT & BWHP3 keeps playing around like they're going to hit, but I took my money and ran on those, too. BWGAR is still a mystery to me.
After several weeks of hit and miss just trying to break even, I finally hit the $7M club.
Last edited by devilshalo; 07-02-04 at 08:28 AM.
07-02-04 | 10:20 AM
#108
Suspended
Originally posted by ivelostr2
Just trying to make sure I understand this.
so for Kirsten Dunst, her last five movies are...
03/19/2003 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Actor)
12/19/2003 Mona Lisa Smile (Actor)
04/04/2003 Levity (Actor)
05/03/2002 Spider-Man (Actor)
04/12/2002 The Cat's Meow
...and her price is 108.59.
Her 2 newest movies are...
06/30/2004 Spider-Man 2 (Actor)
06/25/2004 Kaena: The Prophecy (Actor)
...So, in four weeks, the cats meow will be dropped, and spiderman II will be added and her price will adjust up right, then 7 or 8 weeks later, Kaena: The Prophecy will delist (I'm assuming this opened in less than 600 theaters, and will be around for 12 weeks right) and SPiderman will be dropped and she will plummet.
is this correct?
Just trying to make sure I understand this.
so for Kirsten Dunst, her last five movies are...
03/19/2003 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Actor)
12/19/2003 Mona Lisa Smile (Actor)
04/04/2003 Levity (Actor)
05/03/2002 Spider-Man (Actor)
04/12/2002 The Cat's Meow
...and her price is 108.59.
Her 2 newest movies are...
06/30/2004 Spider-Man 2 (Actor)
06/25/2004 Kaena: The Prophecy (Actor)
...So, in four weeks, the cats meow will be dropped, and spiderman II will be added and her price will adjust up right, then 7 or 8 weeks later, Kaena: The Prophecy will delist (I'm assuming this opened in less than 600 theaters, and will be around for 12 weeks right) and SPiderman will be dropped and she will plummet.
is this correct?
Where it gets a little tricky is that films are dropped in order of release date, so even though Dunst is adjusting for SPID2 before she adjusts for KAENA, KAENA will (eventually) be dropped from her TAG before SPID2 since KAENA was released first.
07-02-04 | 11:14 AM
#109
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
what happens to a stock when an actor dies? I am wondering this because Brando died this morning, As soon as I saw it the first thing I thought was "wow, I wonder what happens to his stock?" I know that is horrible, but I was curious...
question answered: It skyrockets and delists...
question answered: It skyrockets and delists...
Last edited by ivelostr2; 07-02-04 at 11:52 AM.
07-02-04 | 12:30 PM
#110
Suspended
HSX delisted MBRAN at his current TAG, which was around $23. Since he was priced at around $10 this morning, he skyrocketed as people bought in for a quick profit.
As for NKIDM, her last five films were:
Dogville DOGVL 3/26/2004 $1,530,386
Cold Mountain CLDMT 12/25/2003 $95,617,788
The Human Stain STAIN 10/31/2003 $5,381,227
The Hours HOURS 2/14/2003 $41,597,830
Birthday Girl BGIRL 2/1/2002 $4,919,896
Giving her a TAG of $29.81
On Wednesday, STEPF will delist. It's current price is $55.88, so let's assume it delists there. BGIRL will drop out of the TAG, STEPF will be added in, and the bond will be adjusted to a new TAG of $40.00. Since her current price is $38.30 and she adjusts in 5 days, this gives you a ROI of about 4% over 5 days, or about 0.87% per day. Note that the DROI is wrong on the HSBR pages since they are coded to assume a Tuesday bond adjust, but bonds are adjusting on Wednesday due to the holiday.
As for NKIDM, her last five films were:
Dogville DOGVL 3/26/2004 $1,530,386
Cold Mountain CLDMT 12/25/2003 $95,617,788
The Human Stain STAIN 10/31/2003 $5,381,227
The Hours HOURS 2/14/2003 $41,597,830
Birthday Girl BGIRL 2/1/2002 $4,919,896
Giving her a TAG of $29.81
On Wednesday, STEPF will delist. It's current price is $55.88, so let's assume it delists there. BGIRL will drop out of the TAG, STEPF will be added in, and the bond will be adjusted to a new TAG of $40.00. Since her current price is $38.30 and she adjusts in 5 days, this gives you a ROI of about 4% over 5 days, or about 0.87% per day. Note that the DROI is wrong on the HSBR pages since they are coded to assume a Tuesday bond adjust, but bonds are adjusting on Wednesday due to the holiday.
07-02-04 | 01:08 PM
#111
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
Originally posted by JasonF
HSX delisted MBRAN at his current TAG, which was around $23. Since he was priced at around $10 this morning, he skyrocketed as people bought in for a quick profit.
As for NKIDM, her last five films were:
Dogville DOGVL 3/26/2004 $1,530,386
Cold Mountain CLDMT 12/25/2003 $95,617,788
The Human Stain STAIN 10/31/2003 $5,381,227
The Hours HOURS 2/14/2003 $41,597,830
Birthday Girl BGIRL 2/1/2002 $4,919,896
Giving her a TAG of $29.81
On Wednesday, STEPF will delist. It's current price is $55.88, so let's assume it delists there. BGIRL will drop out of the TAG, STEPF will be added in, and the bond will be adjusted to a new TAG of $40.00. Since her current price is $38.30 and she adjusts in 5 days, this gives you a ROI of about 4% over 5 days, or about 0.87% per day. Note that the DROI is wrong on the HSBR pages since they are coded to assume a Tuesday bond adjust, but bonds are adjusting on Wednesday due to the holiday.
HSX delisted MBRAN at his current TAG, which was around $23. Since he was priced at around $10 this morning, he skyrocketed as people bought in for a quick profit.
As for NKIDM, her last five films were:
Dogville DOGVL 3/26/2004 $1,530,386
Cold Mountain CLDMT 12/25/2003 $95,617,788
The Human Stain STAIN 10/31/2003 $5,381,227
The Hours HOURS 2/14/2003 $41,597,830
Birthday Girl BGIRL 2/1/2002 $4,919,896
Giving her a TAG of $29.81
On Wednesday, STEPF will delist. It's current price is $55.88, so let's assume it delists there. BGIRL will drop out of the TAG, STEPF will be added in, and the bond will be adjusted to a new TAG of $40.00. Since her current price is $38.30 and she adjusts in 5 days, this gives you a ROI of about 4% over 5 days, or about 0.87% per day. Note that the DROI is wrong on the HSBR pages since they are coded to assume a Tuesday bond adjust, but bonds are adjusting on Wednesday due to the holiday.
07-02-04 | 01:20 PM
#112
Suspended
Originally posted by ivelostr2
what about matthew broderick, when stepford wives delists, godzilla will drop out, meaning a huge fall correct?
what about matthew broderick, when stepford wives delists, godzilla will drop out, meaning a huge fall correct?
