This sounds like the same type of attitude where people think AOTC and Matrix Reloaded were disappointments...even though AOTC made $310mil and Reloaded made $280mil...

$140mil is always gonna be a good gross...

First it made $132 million domestically (Minority Report)

Look, Im simply talking about what the expectations were. Expectations that werent set by me.

I think Most everyone expected AOTC to make more than it did as well, I certainly dont think anyone expected Spiderman to beat Star Wars, at least not before the summer movie season started.

Gross vs. Cost divided by Expectations.

Minority Report had a budget of $102 million + 40 Million for Promotion. So you cannot tell me that they did not expect this movie to make far more than $140 million when they spent $142 million on it. So don't roll your eyes, just look at the figures, they say everything but the quality of the film itself.

That is simply not true. You think studios don't have expectations of what their films will do?

Would $140mil be 'a good gross' for Return of the King?

Would $140mil be 'a good gross' for The Phantom Menace?

$10 says that if that were true, half the people on this board would still be yelling out yes. "It'll make its money in the international market and on home video" or something to that effect.

Well it's a good thing it will end up making over 400 mil domestically then isn't it?

I guess it depends on what the expectatiosn for the movie are. It's a drama first, and those kind of movies are not blockbuster type fair. And yet it will cross $100 million. That seems like a reasonably good take considering the subject matter.

I'm not sure why people (if anyone actually did) though it would make more money. I mean every movie is marketed as a gold, top box office winner. That doesn't mean people really believe it is true.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. What are the real expectations? Set by who? The studio? Well they'll certainly over-estimate them. The media? What do they really know? It's just a guess.

I'll say this for Minority Report

It made $132,072,926 in the Domestic box office
It made $221,489,250 in the International box office
I have not accounted for home video sales.

That's still over $350 in revenues w/o home video on a $102 million dollar budget. Now theoretically the studio doesn't want to greenlight a money losing film. But Speilberg can probably do what he wants, and a few well reviewed films always look good to the studio.

just what we need, another white guy saves the asian girl movie lol

I'd say yes...ROTK cost $94mil...$25mil for marketing...so it would be profitable...if each LOTR made $150mil each...it'd be a success...that would be a total domestic gross of $450mil...not counting Worldwide...and it cost $300mil to make...

Didnt New Line recoup the costs from making the 3 films from the profits of the first film alone when all the numbers form overseas and DVD came back?

I don't think they even needed the DVD numbers. FOTR made over $313 mil domestically and almost $553mil internationally.

Still, $140mil would not be a "good gross" for ROTK -- as its predecessors had done so much better. (It's a moot point, since ROTK has grossed more in 19 days than FOTR did in 11 weeks.)

I also wanted to add one other thing to the discussion. Remember we are talking gross receipts. This is NOT the amount the studios make on the film. First, of course, theaters take their cut. Then you might have gross participation by the director & actors.

In the case of Minority Report, I found the following.

That's the problem, *you'd* say yes. No one else would.

Trailers didn't seem like they'd appeal to the younger crowd.

Stiff competition from ROTK.

Any movie that does not recoup it's production budget with box office take is considered a bomb. Last Samurai budget was reported at $150 mil + 40 mil in marketing (check imdb) if it grosses $100 it is considered a bomb by industry standard- big time.
i really like the movie so i don't know why it did as poorly as it did. maybe with all the great competition..moviegoers just didn't buy Tom as a Samurai warrior and if they had to choose between 2+ hour movies they were more likely to opt for the 3.5 ROTK then the 2.5 LS.

I think you're numbers are a tad high, but close enough to not make a huge difference (I've heard $140 million + 30 million marketing). If you want to call it a bomb for not making back it's budget, so be it. It's just seems wholly illogical to expect such a movie to make that much money. Unless you're just crazily optimistic, you could tell this film wouldn't make $150 million. so it would be a bomb not matter what.

The only films to top $170 million this year were Finding Nemo, POTC, LOTR, X2, Elf, Matrix Reloaded, and Bruce Almighty. None of which are exactly serious dramas (although one could argue LOTR). Most are summer movies, and most are either action films or comedies. Most also have a wide appeal. This movie does not. It's not a family film, but a serious thought provoking film. While it does have some action, it's not exactly catering to teenagers either. For an adult film with some violence, this is usually as good as it gets in box office take.

The LOTR is an exception to that, but obviously not every film will make as much as LOTR. Nor does the Last Samurai have a built in fan base either. I'd lump The Last Samurai in with Cold Mountain. Serious films with some action, good reviews, and bigger budgets, but not something that really has huge box office appeal.

While I liked TLS, I didn't find it to be anything more than standard action fare, and Tom Cruise was not doing anything out of the ordinary by a long shot. I am still a bit surprised by its lack of performance though. Then again, I remember the movie Vanilla Sky came out to a weaker reception than TLS and wound up breaking $100 million after Cruise and Crowe hit the PR circuit to explain what the movie was about. Took a while, but it did make some money.

I just watched the movie last night, and it really is the first movie with Tom Cruise that I actually liked.

Being obsessed with Japan, the movie was wonderful, just so many traditional objects of Japanese culture in 2 hours and a few minutes. The background and scenes are so beautiful. The Japanese actors are wonderful, and hearing so much Japanese dialog was great. The fights are very nice and beautiful, violent without being violent or gory. And the plot was, well, to me original. I expected him to side with the samurai, but not the way he did in the movie.

And no, it was not a "white guy saves Asian girl" movie. It was more like "white guy saves Asian guy", and the relationship between the girl and Captain Algrid [who Tom Cruise] played was very subtle and touching, I expected a traditional Hollywood kiss, but there was none.

And since this is not the LOTR forum, I will say it here..

Last Samurai could have been a few minutes shorter, but it kept me entertained and immersed for more than 2 hours. It showed emotion and meaning in every death, in every fight, in every word. And I can imagine that if I was a soldier of some sort, I could identify with both the characters in the movie. It told a complete, moving story, and took what I consider a simply average actor who GOT VERY VERY LUCKY into a more powerful role that was greater than himself. And more than anything, the fights were the way fights really are, filled with action and death and courage, that are all for a reason..

LOTR took over 10 hours to tell a simple story, a morality play of good and evil. It showcased hours and hours of brutal and gory fight scenes, with Hollywood antics [giants falling down, people surfing on shields, one liner phrases, and video game like scenarios] for the purpose of letting a dwarf or an elf or whatever a "hobbit" is struggle endlessly and melodramatically to throw a ring into a volcano. And it has people crying and weeping and praising as to how glorious it is and how incredible it is and how it is the best film in the history of the world...yet it did nothing for me...even a video game has moved my heart more...

That "Last Samurai" had to come out on the same month that "Return of the King" came out is sad...it did not make much money not because of Cheaper by the Dozen [which was actually an enjoyable movie with a hint of drama and a hint of comedy] but because of millions of fanboys who can spend dozens and dozens of hours of their life watching dwarves and elves with swords and axes and proclaiming it to be the second coming of all that is good and holy..

And sadly, I am ashamed to have ever wasted hours of my life trying to see what's so great about the "trilogy"..which no..will never replace Star Wars trilogy..not even the new one.

I liked the Last Samurai, not nearly as good as Cold Mountain ,House of Sand and Fog, or Return of the King but still one of the better films i've seen.
If you are talking just about it the possibility of being a bomb because its Tom Cruise, everyone has a bomb sooner or later, hell look at Deniro(apples and oranges i know). I just think it had too much competition in december.
Hey, its doing better than Paycheck.

According to Box Office Mojo here's where it's at on Jan. 25

Total as of Jan. 25, 2004: $105,439,000 (Estimate)
+ Overseas Gross: est. $205.3 million / 39 countries

It definitely won't lose money, especially with DVD sales, which will be huge.

It'll likely end up with around $375-$400mil...not bad for a movie that someone said...bombed...

Better question: Why did a movie that sucked earn $400 million?

That may be your opinion...but you are in the very very very small minority...

What do you mean by "fanboys who can spend dozens and dozens of hours of their life watching dwarves and elves with swords..." ? Do you mean that fanboys are people who have no real jobs and live in their parents basements with no hope of a social life whatsoever? Or do you mean the people who love film as an art and will actually take the time to examine something past face value and find some real meaning in the actions of these hobbits and elves?
Hate to say it, but the movie Kill Bill offered more of Eastern beliefs and insight than TLS ever did IMO. Not that I didn't enjoy them both, but Kill Bill had more depth than this movie could have ever hoped.

Yes, it's definitely disgusting to see something like
"Along Came Polly" to have a bigger opening weekend
than "The Last Samurai"

I'll agree with that.