Grimfarrow

With all the hoopla over the screener ban, this year will sure be interesting. For one, the LA and Chicago Film Critics have cancelled their awards. But it matters less anyways, since the film nominees are more cut-and-dried than previous years. However, the acting ones are harder to guess, so I'll leave that for now....

My predictions for Best Picture are these:

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (the epic)
Cold Mountain (the costume drama/Miramax factor)
In America (small movie with big heart)
Mystic River (proven veterans)

Possible:

Master and Commander
The Last Samurai
Seabiscuit
Big Fish

Bets Foreign Film:

Goodbye Lenin! (Germany)
The Return (Russia)
The Barbarian Invasion (Canada)
Osama (Afghanistan)
The Twilight Samurai (Japan)

Possible:

Bon Vayage (France)
The Kite (Lebanon)
Distant (Turkey)

Grimfarrow

The IFP nominees are:

http://www.ifp.org/calendar/program.php?id=144

Best Feature:

American Splendor
In America
Lost In Translation
Raising Victor Vargas
Shattered Glass

Best Director:

Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini, American Splendor
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Jim Sheridan, In America
Peter Sollett, Raising Victor Vargas
Gus Van Sant, Elephant

Male Lead:

Peter Dinklage - The Station Agent
Paul Giamatti - American Splendor
Ben Kinglsey - House of Sand and Fog
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
Lee Pace - Soldier's Girl

Female Lead:

Agnes Bruckner - Blue Car
Zooey Deschanel - All the Real Girls
Samantha Morton - In America
Elizabeth Moss - Virgin
Charlize Theron - Monster

Best Screenplay

American Splendor
Lost in Translation
A Mighty Wind
Pieces of April
Shattered Glass

Best First Feature:

Bomb the System
House of Sand and Fog
Monster
Quattro Noza
Thirteen

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
(Given to the best feature made for under $500,000)

Anne B. Real
Better Luck Tomorrow
Pieces of April
The Station Agent
Virgin

Best First Screenplay

Blue Car
Monster
Raising Victor Vargas
The Station Agent
Thirteen

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
Sarah Bolger, In America
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April
Hope Davis The Secret, Lives of Dentists
Frances McDormand, Laurel Canyon

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Judah Friedlander, American Splendor
Troy Garity, Soldier's Girl
Djimon Hounsou, In America
Alessandro Nivola, Laurel Canyon
Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass

BEST DEBUT PERFORMANCE

Anna Kendrick, Camp
Judy Marte, Raising Victor Vargas
Victor Rasuk, Raising Victor Vargas
Nikki Reed, Thirteen
Janice Richardson, Anne B. Real

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Elephant, Harris Savides
In America, Declan Quinn
Northfork, M. David Mullen
Quattro Noza, Derek Cianfrance
Shattered Glass, Mandy Walker

BEST FOREIGN FILM

City of God - (Brazil)
Director: Fernando Meirelles

Lilya 4-Ever - (Denmark)
Director: Lukas Moodysson

The Magdalene Sisters - (England/Ireland)
Director: Peter Mullan

The Triplets of Belleville - (France)
Director: Sylvian Chomet

Whale Rider - (New Zealand)
Director: Niki Caro


BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Fog of War
Director: Errol Morris

Mayor of the Sunset Strip
Director: George Hickenlooper

My Architect
Director: Nathaniel Kahn

OT: our town
Director: Scott Hamilton Kennedy

Power Trip
Director: Paul Devlin

lesterlong

Mystic River..HA! If that movie gets nominated then the Oscars have lowered their standards.

Geofferson

While I thought it was a good movie, I see your point. If that is considered a frontrunner, this year is not as good as several years recent for Oscar contenders.

RyoHazuki

That would be awesome to see Bill Murray win best actor.

Grimfarrow

National Board of Review picks:

Best Film
Mystic River

Top Ten Films
Mystic River, The Last Samurai, The Station Agent, 21 Grams, House of Sand and Fog, Lost in Translation, Cold Mountain, In America, Seabiscuit, Master and Commander

Best Foreign Film
Barbarian Invasions

Top Five Foreign Films
Barbarian Invasions, Best of Youth, Monsieur Ibrahim, Autumn Spring, Man on the Train

Top Five Documentaries
The Fog of War, Capturing the Friedmans, My Architect, Winged Migration, Spellbound

Best Actor
Sean Penn, Mystic River and 21 Grams

Best Actress
Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give

Best Supporting Actor
Alec Baldwin, The Cooler

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April and The Station Agent

Best Acting by an Ensemble
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Breakthrough Performance Actor
Paul Giamatti, American Splendor

Breakthrough Performance Actress
Charlize Theron, Monster

Best Director
Edward Zwick, The Last Samurai

Best Directorial Debut
Vadim Perelman, House of Sand and Fog

Best Adapted Screenplay
Cold Mountain, Anthony Minghella

Best Original Screenplay
In America, Jim Sheridan, Naomi & Kirsten Sheridan

Best Documentary
The Fog of War

Best Animated Feature
Finding Nemo

Best Film or Mini-Series Made for Cable TV
Angels in America

Career Achievement
Morgan Freeman

Billy Wilder Award for Excellence in Directing
Norman Jewison

Special Filmmaking Achievement
Sofia Coppola, for writing, directing, and producing Lost in Translation

Career Achievement - Film Music Composition
Hans Zimmer

Career Achievement - Cinematography
John Toll

William K. Everson Award for Film History
Richard LaGravanese and Ted Demme for A Decade Under the Influence

Producers Award
Gale Anne Hurd, Kathleen Kennedy, and Christine Vachon

Special Recognition of Films that Reflect the Freedom of Expression
Capturing the Friedmans, Dirty Pretty Things, The Magdalene Sisters, September 11

Special Mention for Excellence in Filmmaking
(Listed alphabetically)
American Splendor, Bend It Like Beckham, The Cooler, Dirty Pretty Things, Girl With A Pearl Earring, Pieces of April, The Secret Lives of Dentists, Shattered Glass, The Statement, Thirteen, Whale Rider

Grimfarrow

One quick note: the NBR has once again snubbed LOTR this year, with only a "best ensemble" nod given to the epic.

This is completely expected.

For the last 3 years, the NBR has never picked any of the LOTRs (including FOTR and TTT) in their top-ten list. So the exclusion of ROTK is not surprising at all.

Needless to say, this snubbing has no bearing on ROTK's Oscar chances.

Pauly

Just give Peter Jackson and ROTK the Oscar already. It's in the bag. There is no contest this year.

Gyno Rhino

So you've already seen ROTK?

MasterofDVD

I admit that I love mainstream, big budget blockbuster films. I keep up on the types of films I like and I see and buy everything that catches my eye.

Having said that it's amazing how little I know about most of the movies in the above lists. I realize art gets recognized in Hollywood but each year I hate these awards more and more. Smaller films should be recognized but I can't help feeling bigger films are getting the shaft. I'm not LOTR groupie but I think it should of done much better. I used to dream of going to the award show. Now I'd rather go take a dump on the red carpet.

Inverse

Bear in mind that *only* smaller films are eligible for the IFP awards--that's the whole point--so it's no surprise that big movies got the shaft there.

DealMan

I would also add 21 Grams, Shattered Glass, and Lost in Translation to the possibles list

lesterlong

No but we've seen Fellowship and Two Towers. And that's pretty much what counts when it comes to Oscars.

Grimfarrow

I don't think any of those 3 will have a chance at Best Picture, unfortunately. For one, 21 Grams and Lost in Translation are both from Focus Features, and Focus is much smaller than the majors, so they will only push for 1 Best Pic title, which will be 21 Grams. But the problem with 21 Grams is that a) it has received mixed reviews (69/100 at Metacritic) b) it is too dour. Mostly 21 Grams will be gunning for the acting prized (which is also troublesome, with Sean Penn already a lock for "Mystic River").

And Shattered Glass has zero chance, especially since it's from Lions Gate, and is barely distributed.

Tom Campbell

Yeah, but what are your predictions for the Razzies?

Spooky

Please! Mystic River is 10 times better than Chicago, Gladiator, American Beauty, The English Patient or Shakespeare in Love...the last 5 winners.

Spooky

It's going to be a tight race between THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS and THE MATRIX RELOADED. But I'll take THE HULK in an upset!

lesterlong

Whoa, whoa whoa. None of those movies are worse than Mystic River especially American Beauty. Just my opinion.

joeydaninja

there seem to be no clearcut nominees yet this year. it looks like the NBR will actually keep the pace. but yeah, ROTK looks like it's in the bag coz there are no other clear or big contenders.

tony_montana187

I predict a sweep of all major Razzies by "Gigli" Hands Down!!

DealMan

The early reviews of Burton's Big Fish have been very positive, anyone think this one has a chance?

Grimfarrow

Big Fish will be the big surprise - I've also heard some very positive reviews of it. However, is it too late in the game? This film has been very slow-going in building a buzz.

As for the opposite, The Last Samurai is about to land with a thud. The reviews have not been as warm as the studio would have liked, with a score of only 57/100 at Metacritic and 69% - barely fresh - at Rottentomatoes.

However, those two sites are hardly a barometer of Oscar chances, and a positive box-office return may still help Tom's chances. For now, though, it's looking a bit better for Samurai's competitions, namely Master and Commander (which is lagging in box-office) and Seabiscuit (which was off to a too-early start during the summer).

Grimfarrow

Whoops, Big Fish is now getting hammered. Apart from the lack of buzz, the film is receiving some rather ugly reviews (see Metacritic - it is now only at 60/100. I'm not exactly sure if it is out of the race yet, but it is definitely no longer a sure thing.

Jackskeleton

GO LOST IN TRANSLATION!!

TopHatCat64