story

That made me laugh so suddenly and loudly that I actually hurt my own ears.

It's so hard to imagine what the latest technology will be in 20 years, especially for physical media. I can see something smaller like a Gamecube disc or Sony MiniDisc coming down the line, but thinner or even flexible and made of more durable (and eco-friendly?) materials. Packaging will get smaller. There will be a new sort of reader technology, and if it's still a laser it'll be green. The capacity will be mind-boggling compared to today's standards. The entire Lord of the Rings: Extended Edition Trilogy will fit on one of them, with room to spare for extras. The quality will be amazing, too, the kind of quality that makes UltraHD look like SD. You won't have to buy any of it at the store, though, because it will print out right in your own home. Your computer / kiosk will come with a (for lack of a better term) 3D disc printer and you'll just make what you order. Some will be single-use items only, others will be forever. They will always be tied to some sort of licensing, online connection, and/or other form of studio interference and synergy-style marketing. Whatever this technology is in 20 years, it will be at least one, maybe two types of physical media beyond Blu-ray. There will be something in-between, likely a shrunk-down disc with big but not amazing capacity. It's the at-home 3D printing that will revolutionize everything.

If I'm right, what do I win?

slop101

Yeah, burning gigs of info onto a disc would certainly be quicker than streaming it. Internet speeds don't seem to be getting any better.

rw2516

I think things have pretty much settled out and 20 years from now will be no different from today concerning physical disc releases.

Studios will continue releasing new releases. They will remain protective of cash cows and popular brands, not licensing them.

Studios will continue to license any catalog titles they can.
WB will never license
Paramount catalog will remain unavailable unless they drop WB as distributor.

I don't see anything changing the current state of BD releases. Lower number of copies will be produced due to lower demand though.

morriscroy

Holocron cube.

http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Holocron

Texan26

Why do people keep bringing up internet speed? Twenty years ago I was using my phone line to get on the internet. Ten years ago, I could not stream HD movies on my TV. The internet is not going to be at it's current state twenty years from now.

slop101

True, my internet's a little faster than it was 10 years ago. But now I'm paying more than double what I did then, for speeds that are just a little faster, and they haven't gotten any faster over the last 5 years, and unless I pay even more, I don't see them getting any faster.

DthRdrX

>90% of the country has cable/phone companies that have no interest in raising speeds or upgrading tech. Since 97 I have gone from AOL 56K to Verizon DSL and now 25-40MB Cable, with a terrible 250GB cap. I actually downgraded to the 25MB package because with the 40 I was going over my cap too fast. I have no other choices in my area. Has their been change in 20 years, sure. Do I see any push to improve things? Not really outside a few major marketed cities.

slop101

Yeah, and I should bring up that I'm one of the lucky ones who lives in a market where I have a choice between at least 5 different ISP providers. And if I had unlimited funds, I could have unlimited internet. Very few people have both the choices and wherewithal for the internet required for heavy HD streaming, and that doesn't look to change any time soon.

PhantomStranger

It's fairly clear that Internet speeds are handicapped by existing monopolies and governmental interference.

Unless a technological solution emerges that obliterates current standards by going outside the box, we've likely hit a stasis point in many parts of the country.

latweek

I'm just adding my experience, but it was December/2015, and this is how it went:

1) Drove to Best Buy and bought 4k set for ~$800.00.
2) Came home, hooked up the TV to an ethernet cable connected to the FIOS router at Gig speed.
3) Opened the Amazon UHD content and signed in with Amazon Prime ID.
4) Started watching UHD content, which looked excellent quality and very fine detail, without any stuttering.

I have my own separate solution at my home (this was for family members), but it impressed me. I was actually thinking there would be a big ordeal, but I have to concede after this experience that, rather inevitably, the model will succeed, and likely marginalize physical media.

Alan Smithee

But you'll still have people demanding that each movie be on its own disc

TheBang

For video, we're in about a 10-year upgrade cycle.

1997: SD digital (DVD)
2006: HD (Blu-ray)
2016: UHD (UHD Blu-ray)

I think that will slow down, since we're hitting the limits of video quality increase. Much like CD's, there were some very small incremental quality gains by going to 24-bit audio (SACD, DVD-A), but no one cared. I think UHD will be the same plateau for video. 8K will be a thing and come along in 10-15 years, but it'll be marginalized like 24-bit audio is. There are not many sources that will benefit from 8K vs. UHD.

Everything will be streamed, even 8K. Streaming went from SD to UHD between 2008 and 2015. There will most likely not be an 8K physical format, given the continued declines of physical media sales. DVD/BD/UHD-BD will continue to hold on though (much the same way CD's still exist).

For Internet speeds, we went from 1-2 Mbps in 1996 to 100-1000 Mbps in 2016. In 2036, Gigabit Internet speed will be pretty standard, with some areas having multi-gigabit. This will enable the aforementioned streaming.

zyzzle

There aren't too many sources which will truly benefit from 1080p to 4k... The increase may be more perceptible
assuming an absolutely stellar, high bitrate encode from the OCN is used for both 1080p and 4k encodes. Most films studios won't lavish this expense upon, so the increase from inferior Interpositive sources, etc, will be marginal... Also, bitrates will probably be kept low for streaming content, which will render moot most of the 1080 to 4k quality increase anyway. We'll lose fine film grain, for example.

And internet speeds may, in theory continue to increase, but it doesn't do us a whole lot of good if ISPs enforce and / or mandate ridiculously low monthly data caps.

Imagine having a 1 Gbps connection and a lame 250 GB per month cap, and a surcharge of, say, $10 for each additional 50 GB. You can see that costs would rapidily escalate into hundreds of dollars a month! This is ultimately what ISPs will want... We need to continue to speak up, and very forcefully, that ISP data caps will need to go... They have absolutely no place in a future where 1 Gbps connections may be common...