Cartoon Network calls their own shots as to what they release on Blu-ray, not Warner's normal people. If it were up to Warner, I doubt any of their shows would have ever hit Blu-ray.

I would worry about this show getting a second season Blu-ray set. It will depend on how the first season sells and the current ratings (which are not that great at the moment). Studios are looking for excuses to trim the fat from their release schedules.

If this is indeed the case, other possible titles to keep an eye on would be network stuff like:

The Blacklist - season 2
The Following - season 3
(maybe Person of Interest - season 4)

as to whether the movie companies still have any appetite for current non-fantasy/non-scifi non-geeky network tv shows on bluray.


(For that matter, the ratings of Person of Interest have recently "fallen off a cliff" to a low of 1.3 demo this week. Earlier episodes this season were around 1.6, while earlier seasons were over 2.0 demo).

More generally, how well tv ratings correlate to dvd/bluray sales, seems to be unknown at this point. (Only the movie companies will know this for sure).

In and of itself, crappy ratings didn't always stop a few network shows from being released on bluray. (Albeit a rarity).

For example, Nikita had fractional demo ratings (ie. below 1.0 demo) for almost its entire run, and it was still released on bluray for all four seasons.

For perspective, some first week sales figures from the-numbers.com of various tv bluray sets. (Some second week sales figures too. The absence of a second week sales figure, means that a particular title did not make it into the top 20 selling titles in the second week after release).

(Disclaimer: It's hard to say how reliable the dvd/bluray sales figures are from the-numbers.com).


Person of Interest

season 1 - 10,064 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09

season 2 - below 6,982 units (released on September 3, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08

season 3 - 10,121 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/07


Fringe

season 1 - 22,080 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/13

season 2 - 17,354 units (week 1) + 7,792 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/26

season 3 - 26,263 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/11

season 4 - 28,426 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09

season 5 - 17,858 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/05/12


Supernatural

season 9 - 10,558 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/14

season 8 - 9,137 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15

season 7 - 16,289 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/23

season 6 - 12,402 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/18

season 5 - 17,576 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/12

season 4 - 11,666 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/06


Arrow

season 1 - 10,603 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22

season 2 - 24,603 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21


Falling Skies

season 3 - 10,166 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/06/08

season 2 - 13,640 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/06/09

season 1 - 12,106 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/06/10


The Vampire Diaries

season 1 -13,016 units (week 1) + 7,347 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/05
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/12

season 2 - 21,780 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/04

season 3 - 16,947 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/16

season 4 - 13,892 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08


Dollhouse

season 1 - 17,189 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/08/02

season 2 - 7,702 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/10/17


Chuck

season 2 - 17,797 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/01/10

season 3 - 14,128 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/12

season 4 - 11,350 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/16

season 5 - 16,801 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/05/13

For that matter, one can examine the first weeks of various tv on bluray titles which didn't make it into the weekly top 20. The lowest units sold figure from the weekly top 20 list, gives a possible upper limit of how many units a particular tv on bluray title might have sold in its first week.


Hawaii Five-0

season 3 - below 4,017 units (released on September 24, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/29

season 2 - below 6,848 units (released on September 18, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/23

(The season 1 bluray was first released as a BestBuy exclusive).


The Blacklist

season 1 - below 7,582 units (released August 12, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/17


The Following

season 2 - below 7,380 units (released October 7, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/12

season 1 - below 14,396 units (released January 7, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/01/12


Revolution

season 2 - below 10,709 units (released August 19, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/24

season 1 - below 6,982 units (released September 03, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08


The 100

season 1 - below 6,197 units (released September 23, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/28


The Vampire Diaries

season 5 - below 5,313 units (released September 9, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/14


The Originals

season 1 - below 9,533 units (released September 2, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/07


Continuum

season 1 - below 19,736 units (released March 26, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/03/31

season 2 - below 10,170 units (released March 25, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/03/30


Under The Dome

season 1 - below 14,180 units (released November 5, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/11/10


Helix

season 1 - below 10,155 units (released July 1, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/07/06


Defiance

season 2 - below 6,197 units (released September 23, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/28

season 1 - below 10,539 units (released October 15, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/10/20


Nikita

season 4 - below 8,924 units (released May 20, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/05/25

season 3 - below 10,435 units (released October 22, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/10/27

season 2 - below 9,526 units (released October 2, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/07

season 1 - below 9,514 units (released August 30, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/04


Human Target

season 1 - below 4,706 units (released September 21, 2010)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/26


Alcatraz

complete series - below 8,747 units (released October 16, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/21


Mike & Molly

season 1 - below 4,223 units (released September 20, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/25


V

season 1 - below 8,135 units (released November 2, 2010)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/11/07

season 2 - below 11,531 units (released October 18, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/23

One of the big enchiladas of tv on bluray appears to be The Big Bang Theory.

season 7 (released on September 16, 2014)
week 1 - 56,118 units
week 2 - 13,085 units
week 3 - 4,358 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/28
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/05


season 6 (released on September 10, 2013)
week 1 -33,008 units
week 2 -11,098 units
week 3 - 5,323 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/29


season 5 (released on September 11, 2012)
week 1 - 53,044 units
week 2 - 10,468 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/16
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/23


season 4 (released on September 13, 2011)
week 1 - 16,945 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/18


season 3 (released on September 14, 2010)
week 1 - 13,486 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19

For comparison purposes, one can examine weekly data for the dvd versions of the same The Big Bang Theory season sets (as above). This is largely to see how much disparity there is with the corresponding bluray versions.

season 7 (released on September 16, 2014)
week 1 - 112,917 units
week 2 - 46,047 units
week 3 - 21,744 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/28
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/05


season 6 (released on September 10, 2013)
week 1 -115,864 units
week 2 - 43,647 units
week 3 - 20,135 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/29


season 5 (released on September 11, 2012)
week 1 - 376,191 units
week 2 - 137,311 units
week 3 - 47,578 units
week 4 - 36,006 units
week 5 - 25,713 units
week 6 - 19,643 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/16
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/23
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/30
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/07
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/14
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/21


season 4 (released on September 13, 2011)
week 1 - 174,592 units
week 2 - 55,123 units
week 3 - 24,065 units
week 4 - 20,453 units
week 5 - 21,869 units
week 6 - 27,841 units
week 7 - 17,864 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/18
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/25
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/02
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/09
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/16
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/23
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/30


season 3 (released on September 14, 2010)
week 1 - 250,742 units
week 2 - 87,765 units
week 3 - 44,015 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/26
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/10/03

I don't know if this is the biggest selling tv on bluray series. These are allegedly the total number of units sold of Game of Thrones on bluray.

As of February 23, 2014:

season 1 - 602,697 units
season 2 - 532,529 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/02/23

As of April 27, 2014:

season 3 - 640,306 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/04/27


For comparison, these are the alleged total number of units sold of the dvd versions of Game of Thrones.

As of February 23, 2014:

season 1 - 1,200,612 units
season 2 - 646,763 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/02/23

As of April 27, 2014:

season 3 - 480,913 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/04/27

That is good work, Game of Thrones is definitely a monster on home video like most of HBO's better properties.

I would be worried about The Blacklist with those kind of numbers in its first year. First seasons are a fairly good indicator of staying power, as many fans want to get in on the ground floor from the beginning.

I guess the CBS audience just isn't the type to go out and buy Blu-rays, you would think Person of Interest would have higher sales for its ratings.

As expected, the genre fare sells far better than standard network content. Helix's numbers are mind-blowing, I thought that show was terrible and it's outselling shows that literally quadruple its ratings.

First week (and some second week) numbers from the-numbers.com of various Fox tv on bluray releases. The first batch are Fox shows which were recently discontinued on bluray, while the final batch are shows which are still currently released on bluray.


Bones

season 4 - below 3,008 units (released on October 6, 2009)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/10/11

season 5 - below 7,574 units (released on October 5, 2010)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/10/10

season 6 - below 10,594 units (released on october 11, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/16

season 7 - below 8,583 units (released on October 9, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/14

season 8 - below 8,955 units (released on October 8, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/10/13



Modern Family

season 1 - 6,932 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/26

season 2 - 10,048 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/25

season 3 - 11,574 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/23

season 4 - below 4,017 units (released on September 24, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/29



Glee

season 1 - 18,246 units (week 1) + 6,224 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/26

season 2 - 11,688 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/18

season 3 - 17,086 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/08/19

season 4 - below 3,382 units (released on October 1, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/10/06


The League

season 4 - below 6,982 units (released on September 3, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08

season 3 - below 8,583 units (released on October 9, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/14

season 2 - below 8,155 units (released on October 4, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/10/09

season 1 - below 5,524 units (released on September 14, 2010)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19



It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia

A Very Sunny Christmas - 11,566 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/11/22

season 5 - 8,429 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/19

season 6 - 7,401 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/18

season 7 - below 8,583 units (released on October 9, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/10/14

season 8 - below 6,982 units (released on September 3, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08


Wilfred

season 1 - below 10,957 units (released on June 19, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/06/24

season 2 - below 8,717 units (released on June 18, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/06/23


Louie

season 1 - below 8,130 units (released on June 21, 2011)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/06/26

season 2 - below 10,957 units (released on June 19, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/06/24


The Bridge

season 1 - below 6,819 units (released on June 24, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/06/29


Legit

season 1 - below 9,687 units (released on February 25, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/03/02


The Americans

season 1 - below 17,176 units (released on February 11, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/02/16







Sleepy Hollow

season 1 - 10,945 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21


24

Live Another Day - 11,594 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/05


American Horror Story

season 3 - 16,164 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/12

season 2 - 15,035 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/10/13

season 1 - 26,830 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/30


Homeland

season 3 - 14,941 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/14

season 2 - 18,960 units (week 1) + 5,231 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22

season 1 - 21,339 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/02

Here's the Sons of Anarchy first + second week (and some third week) bluray numbers, from the-numbers.com.

season 1

week 1 - 12,066 units
week 2 - 5,691 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/08/23
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/08/30


season 2

week 1 - 28,107 units
week 2 - 8,353 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/05
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/12


season 3

week 1 - 48,683 units
week 2 - 13,700 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/04
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/11


season 4

week 1 - 52,995 units
week 2 - 17,606 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/02
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09


season 5

week 1 - 48,571 units
week 2 - 14,346 units
week 3 - 6,739 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/01
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15


season 6
week 1 - 41,311 units
week 2 - 16,967 units
week 3 - 7,114 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/31
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/07
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/14

For that matter, the first week numbers of dvd-only units moving for Person of Interest, wasn't exactly that hot either.

season 1 - 36,466 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09

season 2 - below 17,432 units (released on September 3, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08

season 3 - 24,661 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/07


In contrast, a show like NCIS was moving a lot more units in the first week of release, over these same years as Person of Interest.

NCIS season 9 (released on August 21, 2012)
week 1 - 117,612 units
week 2 - 57,524 units
week 3 - 49,404 units
week 4 - 18,560 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/08/26
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/02
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/16


NCIS season 10 (release on August 20, 2013)
week 1 - 66,728 units
week 2 - 28,157 units
week 3 - 22,799 units
week 4 - 16,647 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/08/25
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/01
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/15


NCIS season 11 (released on August 19, 2014)
week 1 - 49,525 units
week 2 - 19,047 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/24
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/31

In the cases of Fox and Warner, it appears they're fine with tv on bluray titles selling at least 10,000 bluray units in the first week or so of release.

With Fox cracking down on losers, it appears they're discontinuing the tv shows that move considerably less than 10,000 bluray units in the first week or so of release.

In the case of Warner, it appears their automatic discontinuation are shows that move less than 5000 bluray units in the first week or so of release. It also appears Warner might have a "grey zone" consisting of tv shows that move between 5000-10000 bluray units in the first week or so. (ie. Somewhat less than 10,000 but much better than 5000). Not really sure what exactly Warner does with these shows. (Need more data).

Looking more through the first week numbers of various tv on bluray titles from other movie companies (ie. Paramount, Lionsgate, Sony, etc ...), most of these shows fit into some of the above patterns.

Perhaps not surprisingly, long running serialized shows like Breaking Bad, Justified, Mad Men, Spartacus, Lost, Dexter, etc ... resemble similar first week patterns as "Sons of Anarchy" or Homeland (at the lower end).

"Once Upon A Time" resembles the first week patterns of "American Horror Story".

"The Walking Dead"'s first week patterns are somewhat better than "Sons of Anarchy", but not as high as "Game of Thrones". (ie. 100k+ first week units moved).

First week (and some second week) figures, of various Universal tv on bluray titles.

House

season 6 - 12,754 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/05

season 7 - 10,386 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/04

season 8 - below 7,473 units (released on August 21, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/08/26


The Office

season 5 - 23,032 units (week 1) + 5,517 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/13
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/20

season 6 - 18,035 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/09/12

season 7 - 12,608 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2011/09/11

season 8 - below 10,694 units (released on September 4, 2012)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/09/09

season 9 - below 6,982 units (released on September 3, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/08


Grimm

season 1 - 13,315 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/08/12

season 2 - 6,150 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22

season 3 - below 8,048 units (released on September 16, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21


Bates Motel

season 1 - below 4,595 units (released on September 17, 2013)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/09/22

season 2 - below 7,380 units (released on October 7, 2014)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/12


Heroes

season 3 - 27,339 units (week 1) + 9,284 units (week 2)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/06
http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2009/09/13

season 4 - below 11,208 units (released on August 3, 2010)

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2010/08/08

Over the last year or so, it appears Universal is fine with tv on bluray titles which are moving in the "grey zone" of 5000 to 10,000 bluray units in the first week or so.

Quite a change from five years ago, when earlier Universal tv on bluray titles were moving 20k+ first week units.

You have to remember that each studio has a different cost structure for television releases, which is why some studios are more willing to tolerate lower sales. The magic number is typically 7500 units.

hey would've had my business if they had released Brooklyn Nine-Nine on BD in addition to DVD.

:sigh: And as I've said before, they SHOULDN'T judge a title's success by how many it sells in the FIRST WEEK! I buy a lot of stuff that I strongly want to succeed (like 3D movies, which keep getting bad press and snubbed by companies like Disney) as soon as I can, but I can't afford to buy EVERYTHING that comes out right away and I'm sure not many other people can either! It can be a year or more before I get around to picking up some titles, does my purchase not count at all by that point???

Unfortunately the-numbers.com only gives public access to the weekly top-20 selling bluray numbers. I don't know how one would get data for stuff that sells lower units than the weekly top 20 list, other than being a movie studio insider in the home movie division.

The only stuff that shows up weeks, months, or years later (after their original release dates) in the top-20 weekly lists, are those hot selling titles that can still move large unit numbers (such as Game of Thrones, etc ...).

For example, here's some total units sold for some older tv on bluray titles which were quoted months/years later in these weekly top-20 bluray lists.


As of August 11, 2013, the Battlestar Galactica complete series bluray set has allegedly sold a total of 240,293 units since its original release date of July 28, 2009.

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2013/08/11

As of November 11, 2012, the Firely complete series has allegedly sold a total of 298,488 units since its original release date of November 11, 2008.

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2012/11/11

But in those later weeks and months, you're likely buying it much cheaper. The studios want to sell it to you in the first week at $25. They don't care that you might buy it a year from now at $10.

On a tangent, one could examine how well tv on dvd is doing these days. Here's the first week units moved of various current tv shows on dvd released this past August and September.


August 2014

http://tvshowsondvd.com/releasesmont...th=8&Year=2014


Released on August 5, 2014

Community season 5 - below 15,179 units

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/10


Released on August 12, 2014

The Blacklist season 1 - below 1,380 units ?????

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/17


Released on August 19, 2014

NCIS season 11 - 49,525 units (week 1) + 19,047 units (week 2)
Once Upon A Time season 3 - 34,592 units
Boardwalk Empire season 4 - 25,081 units
The Good Wife season 5 - 15,901 units

- below 13,770 units
The Millers season 1
NCIS Los Angeles season 6
Revolution season 2
Parks and Recreation season 6
The Mindy Project season 2
Parenthood season 5

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/24


Released on August 26, 2014

The Walking Dead season 4 - 163,570 units (week 1) + 72,265 units (week 2) + 18,760 units (week 3) + 8,742 units (week 4) + 15,881 units (week 5)

Sons of Anarchy season 6 - 146,404 units (week 1) + 85,062 units (week 2) + 23,939 units (week 3) + 8,965 units (week 4)

Criminal Minds season 9 - 23,168 units

- below 16,158 units
Elementary season 2
Revenge season 3

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/08/31



September 2014

http://tvshowsondvd.com/releasesmont...th=9&Year=2014


Released on September 2, 2014

Grey's Anatomy season 10 - 36,473 units
Person of Interest season 3 - 24,661 units

- below 15,202 units
Chicago Fire season 2
Chicago PD season 1
It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia season 9
The League season 5
New Girl season 3
The Originals season 1

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/07


Released on September 9, 2014

Supernatural season 9 - 41,057 units
Homeland season 3 - 37,975 units
Agents of SHIELD season 1 - 23,634 units
The Vampire Diaries season 5 - 22,242 units

- below 10,210 units
Blue Bloods season 4

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/14


Released on September 16, 2014

The Big Bang Theory season 7 - 112,917 units (week 1) + 46,047 units (week 2) + 21,744 units (week 3)
Castle season 6 - 47,642 units
Bones season 9 - 28,224 units
Arrow season 2 - 22,796 units
Sleepy Hollow season 1 - 20,675 units

- below 8,742 units
CSI season 14
Grimm season 3
Hannibal season 2
Hawaii Five-0 season 4

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/21


Released on September 23, 2014

How I Met Your Mother season 9 - 27,150 units
Modern Family season 5 - 25,811 units

- below 13,418 units
The 100 season 1
Brooklyn Nine-Nine season 1
Law & Order SVU season 15
Mom season 1
Nashville season 2
Reign season 1
Scandal season 3

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/09/28


Released on September 30, 2014

24 Live Another Day - 18,470 units
The Mentalist season 6 - 8,531 units

- below 2,965 units
Mike & Molly season 4

http://www.the-numbers.com/home-mark...art/2014/10/05


From these numbers, it appears many tv on dvd-only titles seem to be sliding into the "grey zone" of 5000 to 10,000 first week units moved.

While television releases have a different sales curve than films, first-week sales provide a number that can be plugged into a fairly reliable modeling equation for lifetime sales. Very few releases of any kind pick up steam from word-of-mouth after its initial release, unless something very unpredictable happens.

The break-even calculation for ROI is completely different for DVD releases, they provide almost no insight on Blu-ray patterns except general market factors.

In the absence of unpredictable factors, the simplest model of "lifetime sales" is the number of units dropping 50% from week to week. If the lifetime is "long enough", the equation is easy to write down. It's the sum of an infinite geometric series with first term of F (ie. number of units sold in first week). So the total number of units sold over a "long enough" lifetime, is total units = F/(1-r) where r = 1/2, which is total units = 2*F. (If the number of units are dropping around 66% each week, we have r=1/3 and the total number of units sold over a "long enough" lifetime is total units = 1.5*F).

(ie. 1 + r + r^2 + r^3 + r^4 + .... = 1/(1-r) ).

Some examples. If the first week sales is F=5000 units, the total lifetime sales would be 10,000 units, if the number of units moved decrease by 50% from week to week. (In the case of the number of units moved decreasing by 66% from week to week, the total lifetime sales would be 7500 units).

Even a PHB/Dogbert type can multiply the first week units sold by 2.

If one looks at the above simple model over 4 weeks, the equations aren't much harder.

The total sales over 4 weeks with first week units moved F, would be:

total units = F*(1-r^4)/(1-r)

(ie. A finite geometric sum).

So if the number of units moved are dropping by 50% from week to week (ie. r = 1/2), the total units sold over four weeks would be 1.875*F.

If the number of units moved are dropping by 66% from week to week (ie. r=1/3), the total units sold over four weeks would be 1.48148*F.


(Over five weeks, the total units sold would be 1.9375*F for r=1/2 and 1.4938*F for r=1/3).

(Over six weeks, the total units sold would be 1.96875*F for r=1/2 and 1.4979*F for r=1/3).

EDIT: In practice, a PHB/Dogbert type will find it easier to remember a 1.5 or 2 multiplied by the number of units moved in the first week F, as an estimate of total number of units sold over a month or so.

EDIT2: The next-to-worst case scenario is when the second (and subsequent) week doesn't move any units at all. (ie. A 100% drop).