Down-Loading Hurting Blu-Ray Sales?
 

I read the Wired article with regards to the slow sales of Blu-Ray. I have also read articles saying the opposite as well.

Consumer confusion, high prices and contentment with DVD were all theories of why it has not been adopted as quickly as anticipated.

Many people I have talked to who are just casual movie watchers say they barely rent or buy any DVDs (or Blu-Ray's) anymore because the day the movie comes out on DVD they can download it & watch it on their laptop. If it's worth seeing twice, they might be inclined to buy the DVD or Blu-Ray.

I don't believe this is the way to properly watch a movie but it seems to be the way people want to watch movies these days. With almost all the DVDs and Blu-Rays now offering digital copies, it seems to be the norm.

If this is the case, is having the best quality, which Blu-Ray provides, no longer a valid selling point?

It's a little like MP3's vs. CDs. The CD sounds better than the compressed MP3 format but the convenience, the less physical space and the cost (free in many cases) is more attractive.

I went to my local video store chain which had a sale on for the last two weeks on their used DVD's, 2 for $10. They had titles like No Country For Old Men, I Am Legend etc. I was there on the last day of the sale and surprisingly there was still plenty of copies on the shelf. At $5 a piece these would have flown off the shelves a couple of years ago.

Most people don't want to watch movies on their laptops. I don't think downloads are having a significant impact. If Blu-rays are lagging, it's probably more to do with the still-high prices of the players.

Only the illegal kind.

Exactly, but IMO far, far more for SD than BD. Torrents and Usenet are hurting DVD sales, it's just too easy.... to the point where it's increasingly hard to justify purchasing any new titles that only come out on SD, just get a copy and wait for the BD release.

Times change, people change, hairstyles change.

Neither is downloading the way people want to watch movies nor is quality a non-factor. Illegally downloading horrendous-looking copies of films will never replace what the format offers. Neither in terms of quality nor in terms of market presence.

Blu-ray will be here for quite some time.

Pro-B

Any blame for Blu Ray downloads hurting sales falls squarely on the shoulders of the studios that killed Managed Copy.

I am still waiting (and waiting, and waiting) for the newest crop of players and for some titles that interest me to be released.

Until then I patiently watch my dvd collection.

If I could download a blu ray quality movie and save it to my htpc I would.

I think the people who really download the majority of titles, who won't pay ten bucks for a DVD, sure wouldn't pay 15-40 for a BluRay. They're effectively out of the equation. I think it's a combination of infrastructure (many people who have not upgraded to HDTV and BD players yet), relatively higher prices on disks (tough to pay twice what you were paying for an SD disk), content on disks, and general economic situations.
Then I won't bother downloading a movie illegally because it's a PITA and I can buy the dvd for 5-15 bucks (and of course it's illegal), but theoretically, being able to download a copy of a high-def title as opposed to buying a 30 buck disk is more attractive.
Still, I don't think downloading is the primary cause. If you're into HD and BR, then you aren't likely to settle to watch a movie on a 19 inch computer screen.

I can't imagine downloading being a cause for low sale for movies.

Here's my theory I just came up with last night after buying an LG BH200.

Are firmware updates killing possible sales or adoption of things like BD because Joe Sixpack doesn't understand them? I had to visit the AVS forum, find the proper firmware, download a new driver to the thumbdrive (my hardware build did not have the ability to just hook up to the internet and get a update until I put in a new driver), update that way, then hook it to the internet and do another new update for a newer driver and then a separate firmware update. Jeez.

These updates were to help the player work properly as well as add additional features. It really needs these FW and driver updates to function for the reasons I bought it.

Since I got a PS3 for a BD player in June of this year, there have been what, 3, maybe 4 updates in that short of a time? How many updates have occurred since the damn thing came out?

I know by reading the AVS forum that this is not unusual for most all new hardware coming out to have FW upgrades but I really think this kind of thing is going to cripple mass adoption of stuff like this until you can get to the point where you buy a machine that works out of the box and you don't have to do tons of updates to get it's proper functionality. Gone are the days of buying a VCR or DVD player and having it work correctly immediately.

It seems companies can put a half-ass product on the shelves and then expect people to buy it while they continue tinkering with it to make it do things it was supposed to do right off. The BH200 needs these updates just to fix specific titles, help with menus, etc. Shouldn't this shit work right when you put out $1000 (that was the msrp when it came out) for it?

As I was doing this crap last night, I thought to myself that I couldn't imagine my Dad (who is fairly knowledgeable of electronics and gave me my love of movies) having to deal with this crap. And if my Dad can't do it, how the hell do they expect the average American to do this stuff?

In my opinion, mass adoption won't happen until they have players that can do what they are supposed to do...work correctly the first time.

I am interested in hearing you guys' opinions on this.

Just about everything now needs some sort of firmware update (except the DS strangely). Most of the time its to fix bugs etc. but in Blu-ray's case, its pretty much mandatory for players if customers want to enjoy BD-Live (1.1 players capable of being 2.0) and in some cases to be able to play the latest movies with out issue. Do any of the BD CE's mail out firmware discs like Toshiba did for HD by filling out a card vs. calling in and explaining whats wrong?

You know how MP3 gained ground over CDs for ease-of-use as opposed to quality?

The same thing will happen with VOD. The people decrying VOD nowadays are luddites unaware of the options available.

This is not to say VOD is superior in image and sound quality to Blu-ray (it is not). But it is much more convenient (if applicable to a certain title).

Sony was sending out discs automatically for a while for my BDP-S1 but that stopped a while ago for some reason. I always burned them anyway, but for the non-tech savvy the mailed discs are a good thing. Plus the BDP-S1 required a burned DVD - can't read CD's which is stupid. At least the BD30 can do CD's.

My guess is if burning and flash drive were as prevalent in 1998-1999 like they are now, we would have seen firmware updates from some of the early DVD players.

That's exactly my point. Is the mass consumer tired of the spinning disc format? When a movie for $5.00 can't entice them, there's obviously a cheaper or more desirable option out there - and so far it doesn't appear to be Blu-Ray.

IMHO, no.

The mass consumer is tired of double talk, industry apathy, media confusion and no real bona fide need for the product.

Maybe a lot of people do not even have HD tv's yet....with all the different formats I am thinking abt not even replacing my tv when it finally does go...I once had 700 dvd's and didnt miss them when I sold them all....with recessions, etc people may look away from "spinning discs"

Great post, and I don't think it could be put better.

Also a great post. Even in the early days of 'TheWar" I said that this business of FW updates absolutely cripples mass adoption, is said updates are critical to the operation of the equipment.

We are a saavy bunch. Most are not.

You just killed your own argument right there. VOD is nowhere NEAR HD quality. MP3s on the other hand were able to nearly duplicate CD quality and were hugely compressed and took no time to download. Until VOD can say the same this, there is no reasonable alternative to the physical media.

The sad thing is many movies are not meant to be watched on a laptop or computer monitor or portable device. They are created for the big screen. I don't care if the image looks pristine at 19" - you lose the theatrical vibe.

My personal experience with this was American Gangster. I never download movies because I hate the quality and I prefer to own the real thing. Someone at my office was passing around a screener-quality copy of AG a few days or so before it had its theatrical release. Being a Ridley Scott fan I accepted it and watched it on my 15.4" laptop in bed. I really think this is a big reason I didn't enjoy the film, so I am going to give it another shot on Blu-Ray in my home theater. It just didn't feel like a "movie".

I think the number of people put off by firmware updates for players is minuscule. Especially compared to the number who don't know what a firmware update is, let alone how to do it or what it does. I'd guess that even the info that players can/need to be updated isn't known by the average joe, let alone a reason for not moving to Blu-ray.

But my point is how many people might buy a BD player or some other kind of electronic equipment and then it doesn't work correctly? How many are returned? How many throw up their hands and just say it is getting to complicated?

Go to BB or CC one day and find a clerk that sounds like he knows a little bit of what he is selling. Then listen to him try to explain stuff to Joe Public. It is hilarious and scary at the same time. Hearing them describe FW updates, various sound codecs, different formats...it's gotta scare the shit out of the average person. I have seen people just look like they were going to vomit while trying to digest everything the sales guy is throwing out there. These people either throw their hands up and go buy a $40 dvd player or they buy a product that doesn't work correctly and then are disappointed and/or confused when they get it home.

Even DVD can be complicated if you want it to be but it is also at the point where it is so common, most players nowadays are going to function properly right out of the box with little to no firmware updates to satisfy Joe Public. From all of my reading about various BD & HD-DVD players, this just isn't the case right now. Granted BD should eventually get to that place where it works "good enough" for Joe Public but how long will that take?

Firmware updates are here to stay and they are only going to become more prevalent. But right now, many people out there just have no clue what to buy, how to use it properly or how to get it to do what it is supposed to do. So they sit on their hands and buy the easiest thing possible.

Says you.

I'm perfectly aware of VOD and I'm not a Luddite. I just don't like spending money and then after the movie is over having nothing to show for it. Like a lot of people, I like owning the physical media, even if it costs a little more, knowing that I can watch the movie as many times as I want, in different rooms of my house, or at a friend's house, or on the road. There is also value in the bonus features --- which, if you'll remember, are what helped DVD take off in the first place. People liked getting something in addition to just the movie itself.

I find VOD to be as useless as the DiVX discs the studios tried to shove down our throats in 1997.

Then why is Blockbuster, Hollywood Video, Redbox and Netflix still in business? They allow rental of their DVDs and Blu-rays (and yeah, they sell as well). VOD are essentially rentals, correct? Unless you're making backup copies of rented DVDs, they are rentals and after you pay $1-$5, you don't get to see it again unless you re-rent it.

As for DVD features, more and more Blu-rays are coming out lacking many of the special features the DVD counterpart had. Sure their are some exceptions (Young Frankenstein), but a look at almost any Fox or Universal title will show they are dropping features. Hell even Warners latest catalog title wave nixed therm all!

And there were plenty of barebones DVDs early on.

I still believe convenience paired with price are the #1 and #2 things the general population look for.

I totally agree that I like to have the physical media in my hand. I like the packaging, the graphics on the case and the disc itself. The packaging becomes part of the movie!

I think I can speak for everyone on this site that they enjoy owning DVD's and/or Blu-Ray.

On the other hand you can't lose sight that this is a DVD/Blu-Ray fan site. Our enthusiasm for these products and the attention to quality may not be shared with the majority of the casual movie watching public.

Unless you have an incredible home theater, you'll never really replicate the theater experience. A lot of people live in small apartments where they don't have the room for a 52" TV or can't crank the volume up on a 7.1 Surround System.

Watching a movie on a laptop or a smaller TV is their reality. I don't agree with it personally but this is how a lot of people prefer to watch movies these days.

The studios wouldn't include a "digital copy" with the DVD/Blu-Ray if there was no market for it or if they didn't think it would help increase sales. I'm sure they did plenty of consumer research before adding that feature.

Ultimately the majority rules. Betamax was better than VHS, but the public chose VHS. Laserdisc and Super VHS was better than VHS, but VHS never lost any ground until DVD arrived almost twenty years later.

DVDs have been out for 10 years now. No reason why Blu-ray can't include what people are now acustom to. Not enough space? Make it a 2 disc set.

Exactly. Joe buys DVD. Puts DVD in player. DVD plays.

Believe me when I say that we are a minority here, folks. We have people at my job that are so tech-dumb that they hit a brick wall if we change the color of a screen. I can't fathom the idea of explaining to them to download and .iso and turn it into a disc, then upgrade their firmware so they can watch Hitch II. For the most part, and from the beginning, you bout a DVD and it worked without any "advanced" knowledge required.

For the record, this is not a "BluRay problem." This applies to both BD and HD DVD.

I completely agree with you, but there are many that don't recognize that "we" are not "the mainstream.".

For the same reason people go there and pay to rent movies instead of going to the local library and getting them for free. And for the same reason people still go to the theater even though technology has gone so far nowadays that you could replicate everything a theater experience offers at home, and improve.

Aside from a few internet forums where a few selected internet posters keep on harping how special features are such a key factor they are not. They aren't that big of a factor on DVD either outside of the collectors circles. If they were there would have been a major outcry with the bare-bones SDVDs Blockbuster introduced. If they were Criterion would not be introducing extra-less versions of their releases.

Extras are not the factor you want them to be.

Top audio/video quality remains the key factor. All interactivity options, extras, etc. are just that...extras.

Pro-B

All of the "mainstream" people I know are perfectly willing to rent movies via pay-per-view from their cable or satellite companies because the equipment is already hooked up to their TV. This is different from VOD downloading. Most people I know haven't looked into downloading because they don't want to watch movies on their computers and don't even want to think about what it would take to get the movies from their computers to their TVs.

In other words, they'd much rather rent from Netflix or pay-per-view. VOD isn't even on their radar.

I truly believe this is part of a studio's business plan now. It worked with VHS. It worked even moreso with DVD. It will work with BD or whatever comes next physical media wise.

They release a standard release with nothing or a few extras. The movie enthusiast pays for it at a premium right off just to have the movie and the studios make decent money doing this. The product is out there but it is ready for a super-special edition that will follow in a few years. They milk the early dvd buyer/movie fan not only twice but for more money than Joe Public who doesn't give a shit and waits for an impulse buy or whenever it hit the $5 bin.

That why I made a promise to myself to not pay over $10 for any new product that comes out on BD or HD-DVD. If I REALLY want it, I may throw out $13 but definitely nothing over. That goes for used or new. Netflix can tide me over until it drops in price. Hell, I still have dvds that haven't been watched for a couple of years. I'm not falling into that cycle this time around.

I wonder if there are others like me out there that could also have a small affect on BD in that regard.

Bingo. And a lot more.

Pro-B

Do you consider a direct rip of the DVD or Bluray to be a horrendous looking copy?

Sure, but that's assuming that the consumer has already bought into the technology and then got fed up and returned the product. There's a lot more reasons first and foremost preventing the average dude from even getting his feet wet in HD and Blu-ray before they hit the firmware complication.

Complicated technologies as a whole, sure, but I don't believe firmware itself as a big barrier to entry.

I tend to agree with this. I remember buying a DVD a couple of years ago and it came with a mail-in survey asking the purchaser several questions including how important extras were.

I guess they were trying to feel out whether it was worth the extra cost involved to put the extras on or not.

The Blockbuster near me in Canada rents the standard issue DVD, not a special extra-free version. I think Blockbuster probably has lost a lot of money loaning out their DVD's as a two-day rental because of the time it takes people to watch the extras. Back in the VHS days it was usually a one night rental at the same price.

I think they're finding that no one really cares about how they made a movie like "Legally Blond 2" or care to hear the director go on and on about the production details on the commentary track.

For future Blu-Ray releases, I think they will just release bare-bones films to begin with and then follow-up with a special edition if deemed necessary. It's a gamble but unless the movie has a franchise fan-base, is an interesting indie film or, I hate the term, a "fanboy" film there's probably little interest in the extra goodies.

I download movies frequently. Most of what comes out of Hollywood these days is unworthy of repeat viewings, let alone holding a place in my collection. Sure there are exceptions like TDK or Wall-E, but those are few and far between. For the rest, the streaming ability of my PS3 was a most welcomed surprise. -wink-

I don't think for a second downloads are hurting Blu-ray sales. Lack of consumer knowledge, DVD inertia, goodenuf-ism, pricing, economy, and media ownership fatigue are hurting HDM sales. (All these points have already been addresses earlier in the thread).

I don't understand, though, the concern over Laptop viewing of downloaded media. Convergence of downloads -> living room tv display is here (see Apple TV, Xbox Live, etc) and inching along now. Still on the fringes. But, man, it's now working both tech wise and business wise. Xbox live movie downloads are obviously something that's generating income (larger selection, been around now for a while, etc) and I suspect Apple TV will join it soon. I'm not sure this sort of thing is a threat to Blu-ray in its entirety. There's just something about physical media or, I'm too thick-skulled, stuck in the mud to see the writing on the wall. But, I didn't grow up with on-demand and the internet and netflix and tivo.

Today's media world is like the candy store out of the original Willy Wonka movie compared to the looted, poorly stocked, quarter-eating vending machine of my youth. I still don't take the bonanza of today's cheap and easily assessable movie media as some given right I have. Consequently, I'm surprised anyone is upset and worried about media coming or going or making it or not making it. To me it's amazing and wonderful, whether or not a single additional HD title is released. I smile because of enjoying what I have, and don't bitterly fume over not having even more.

-beebs

Very few people even know they can rent DVDs for free at the library nor do they even own a library card. That is a null point. Again, people rent DVDs and Blu-rays from those retailers to watch once and be done with it. VOD is the same damn thing except they don't have to get off their butt, jump in their car, use expensive gas to get there and back, hope the store has the film they want, rent in line, pay, and then drive home. Why do you think Netflix and now Blockbuster now offer online viewing options? People go to theaters to see movies on release week on giant screens and essentially "get out" of their house. Very few people could replicate a Theater experience and even if they can, it would be very costly. Not only would it be costly to buy all the equipment nessecary, but they would have to buy/rent the discs as well several months after that hot film has already left theaters.

Extras don't matter? Really? Why do studios keep selling the same movies over and over and over with new features? Funny how they all seem to sell just fine - usually because they include new extras. Blockbuster, yet again, is a rental place and people typically do not buy movies there unless they want to find movies cheap or forced to due to some exclusive deal. Oh wait, Sony is double dipping on Casino Royale BD in a few months with, whats that, new features. Silly them, they should know its going to sell 0 copies because you don't think people care about extras.

As it stands right now, VOD is only available through a seperate box (VuDu, Roku, AppleTV, Xbox, PS3 etc.). How long before TVs come with build-in VOD solutions? Isn't Sony going to do that with their new line of TVs and Hancock? Eventually their will be very little need for those "extra" devices and it will simply be a key on the remote you click and get access to movies and TV shows.

I too hate watching things on my laptop and would never "rent" a film to watch on it. But if there was a way (AppleTV) to do it on my TV, I will, and have many times. My Xbox and AppleTV have produced a decent enough image (both in SD and HD) where I don't feel bad for spending $4 on a HD rental of a film, especially since Blu-ray offers very few catalog titles I want to watch right now. How long before MGM decides to offer Harold and Maude on Blu-ray? A year? Two years? Ever? For $4 I can watch it right now in HD.