I read the Wired article with regards to the slow sales of Blu-Ray. I have also read articles saying the opposite as well.

Consumer confusion, high prices and contentment with DVD were all theories of why it has not been adopted as quickly as anticipated.

Many people I have talked to who are just casual movie watchers say they barely rent or buy any DVDs (or Blu-Ray's) anymore because the day the movie comes out on DVD they can download it & watch it on their laptop. If it's worth seeing twice, they might be inclined to buy the DVD or Blu-Ray.

I don't believe this is the way to properly watch a movie but it seems to be the way people want to watch movies these days. With almost all the DVDs and Blu-Rays now offering digital copies, it seems to be the norm.

If this is the case, is having the best quality, which Blu-Ray provides, no longer a valid selling point?

It's a little like MP3's vs. CDs. The CD sounds better than the compressed MP3 format but the convenience, the less physical space and the cost (free in many cases) is more attractive.

I went to my local video store chain which had a sale on for the last two weeks on their used DVD's, 2 for $10. They had titles like No Country For Old Men, I Am Legend etc. I was there on the last day of the sale and surprisingly there was still plenty of copies on the shelf. At $5 a piece these would have flown off the shelves a couple of years ago.

Most people don't want to watch movies on their laptops. I don't think downloads are having a significant impact. If Blu-rays are lagging, it's probably more to do with the still-high prices of the players.

Only the illegal kind.

Exactly, but IMO far, far more for SD than BD. Torrents and Usenet are hurting DVD sales, it's just too easy.... to the point where it's increasingly hard to justify purchasing any new titles that only come out on SD, just get a copy and wait for the BD release.

Times change, people change, hairstyles change.

Neither is downloading the way people want to watch movies nor is quality a non-factor. Illegally downloading horrendous-looking copies of films will never replace what the format offers. Neither in terms of quality nor in terms of market presence.

Blu-ray will be here for quite some time.

Pro-B

Any blame for Blu Ray downloads hurting sales falls squarely on the shoulders of the studios that killed Managed Copy.

I am still waiting (and waiting, and waiting) for the newest crop of players and for some titles that interest me to be released.

Until then I patiently watch my dvd collection.

If I could download a blu ray quality movie and save it to my htpc I would.

I think the people who really download the majority of titles, who won't pay ten bucks for a DVD, sure wouldn't pay 15-40 for a BluRay. They're effectively out of the equation. I think it's a combination of infrastructure (many people who have not upgraded to HDTV and BD players yet), relatively higher prices on disks (tough to pay twice what you were paying for an SD disk), content on disks, and general economic situations.
Then I won't bother downloading a movie illegally because it's a PITA and I can buy the dvd for 5-15 bucks (and of course it's illegal), but theoretically, being able to download a copy of a high-def title as opposed to buying a 30 buck disk is more attractive.
Still, I don't think downloading is the primary cause. If you're into HD and BR, then you aren't likely to settle to watch a movie on a 19 inch computer screen.

I can't imagine downloading being a cause for low sale for movies.

Here's my theory I just came up with last night after buying an LG BH200.

Are firmware updates killing possible sales or adoption of things like BD because Joe Sixpack doesn't understand them? I had to visit the AVS forum, find the proper firmware, download a new driver to the thumbdrive (my hardware build did not have the ability to just hook up to the internet and get a update until I put in a new driver), update that way, then hook it to the internet and do another new update for a newer driver and then a separate firmware update. Jeez.

These updates were to help the player work properly as well as add additional features. It really needs these FW and driver updates to function for the reasons I bought it.

Since I got a PS3 for a BD player in June of this year, there have been what, 3, maybe 4 updates in that short of a time? How many updates have occurred since the damn thing came out?

I know by reading the AVS forum that this is not unusual for most all new hardware coming out to have FW upgrades but I really think this kind of thing is going to cripple mass adoption of stuff like this until you can get to the point where you buy a machine that works out of the box and you don't have to do tons of updates to get it's proper functionality. Gone are the days of buying a VCR or DVD player and having it work correctly immediately.

It seems companies can put a half-ass product on the shelves and then expect people to buy it while they continue tinkering with it to make it do things it was supposed to do right off. The BH200 needs these updates just to fix specific titles, help with menus, etc. Shouldn't this shit work right when you put out $1000 (that was the msrp when it came out) for it?

As I was doing this crap last night, I thought to myself that I couldn't imagine my Dad (who is fairly knowledgeable of electronics and gave me my love of movies) having to deal with this crap. And if my Dad can't do it, how the hell do they expect the average American to do this stuff?

In my opinion, mass adoption won't happen until they have players that can do what they are supposed to do...work correctly the first time.

I am interested in hearing you guys' opinions on this.

Just about everything now needs some sort of firmware update (except the DS strangely). Most of the time its to fix bugs etc. but in Blu-ray's case, its pretty much mandatory for players if customers want to enjoy BD-Live (1.1 players capable of being 2.0) and in some cases to be able to play the latest movies with out issue. Do any of the BD CE's mail out firmware discs like Toshiba did for HD by filling out a card vs. calling in and explaining whats wrong?

You know how MP3 gained ground over CDs for ease-of-use as opposed to quality?

The same thing will happen with VOD. The people decrying VOD nowadays are luddites unaware of the options available.

This is not to say VOD is superior in image and sound quality to Blu-ray (it is not). But it is much more convenient (if applicable to a certain title).

Sony was sending out discs automatically for a while for my BDP-S1 but that stopped a while ago for some reason. I always burned them anyway, but for the non-tech savvy the mailed discs are a good thing. Plus the BDP-S1 required a burned DVD - can't read CD's which is stupid. At least the BD30 can do CD's.

My guess is if burning and flash drive were as prevalent in 1998-1999 like they are now, we would have seen firmware updates from some of the early DVD players.

That's exactly my point. Is the mass consumer tired of the spinning disc format? When a movie for $5.00 can't entice them, there's obviously a cheaper or more desirable option out there - and so far it doesn't appear to be Blu-Ray.

IMHO, no.

The mass consumer is tired of double talk, industry apathy, media confusion and no real bona fide need for the product.

Maybe a lot of people do not even have HD tv's yet....with all the different formats I am thinking abt not even replacing my tv when it finally does go...I once had 700 dvd's and didnt miss them when I sold them all....with recessions, etc people may look away from "spinning discs"

Great post, and I don't think it could be put better.

Also a great post. Even in the early days of 'TheWar" I said that this business of FW updates absolutely cripples mass adoption, is said updates are critical to the operation of the equipment.

We are a saavy bunch. Most are not.

You just killed your own argument right there. VOD is nowhere NEAR HD quality. MP3s on the other hand were able to nearly duplicate CD quality and were hugely compressed and took no time to download. Until VOD can say the same this, there is no reasonable alternative to the physical media.

The sad thing is many movies are not meant to be watched on a laptop or computer monitor or portable device. They are created for the big screen. I don't care if the image looks pristine at 19" - you lose the theatrical vibe.

My personal experience with this was American Gangster. I never download movies because I hate the quality and I prefer to own the real thing. Someone at my office was passing around a screener-quality copy of AG a few days or so before it had its theatrical release. Being a Ridley Scott fan I accepted it and watched it on my 15.4" laptop in bed. I really think this is a big reason I didn't enjoy the film, so I am going to give it another shot on Blu-Ray in my home theater. It just didn't feel like a "movie".

I think the number of people put off by firmware updates for players is minuscule. Especially compared to the number who don't know what a firmware update is, let alone how to do it or what it does. I'd guess that even the info that players can/need to be updated isn't known by the average joe, let alone a reason for not moving to Blu-ray.

But my point is how many people might buy a BD player or some other kind of electronic equipment and then it doesn't work correctly? How many are returned? How many throw up their hands and just say it is getting to complicated?

Go to BB or CC one day and find a clerk that sounds like he knows a little bit of what he is selling. Then listen to him try to explain stuff to Joe Public. It is hilarious and scary at the same time. Hearing them describe FW updates, various sound codecs, different formats...it's gotta scare the shit out of the average person. I have seen people just look like they were going to vomit while trying to digest everything the sales guy is throwing out there. These people either throw their hands up and go buy a $40 dvd player or they buy a product that doesn't work correctly and then are disappointed and/or confused when they get it home.

Even DVD can be complicated if you want it to be but it is also at the point where it is so common, most players nowadays are going to function properly right out of the box with little to no firmware updates to satisfy Joe Public. From all of my reading about various BD & HD-DVD players, this just isn't the case right now. Granted BD should eventually get to that place where it works "good enough" for Joe Public but how long will that take?

Firmware updates are here to stay and they are only going to become more prevalent. But right now, many people out there just have no clue what to buy, how to use it properly or how to get it to do what it is supposed to do. So they sit on their hands and buy the easiest thing possible.

Says you.

I'm perfectly aware of VOD and I'm not a Luddite. I just don't like spending money and then after the movie is over having nothing to show for it. Like a lot of people, I like owning the physical media, even if it costs a little more, knowing that I can watch the movie as many times as I want, in different rooms of my house, or at a friend's house, or on the road. There is also value in the bonus features --- which, if you'll remember, are what helped DVD take off in the first place. People liked getting something in addition to just the movie itself.

I find VOD to be as useless as the DiVX discs the studios tried to shove down our throats in 1997.

Then why is Blockbuster, Hollywood Video, Redbox and Netflix still in business? They allow rental of their DVDs and Blu-rays (and yeah, they sell as well). VOD are essentially rentals, correct? Unless you're making backup copies of rented DVDs, they are rentals and after you pay $1-$5, you don't get to see it again unless you re-rent it.

As for DVD features, more and more Blu-rays are coming out lacking many of the special features the DVD counterpart had. Sure their are some exceptions (Young Frankenstein), but a look at almost any Fox or Universal title will show they are dropping features. Hell even Warners latest catalog title wave nixed therm all!

And there were plenty of barebones DVDs early on.

I still believe convenience paired with price are the #1 and #2 things the general population look for.