Expected Blu-ray surge to test disc supply

Sony says it will meet increased demand
By Danny King -- Video Business, 3/13/2008

MARCH 13 | LA QUINTA, Calif.—Movie studio executives speaking at the Content Delivery and Storage Assn. conference here last weekend had little doubt that Sony’s victory with Blu-ray Disc in the high-definition format war will spur sales of packaged media. Supplying the discs necessary for such a surge may be another story.

With some studios and analysts expecting Blu-ray spending to triple this year as Warner Home Video, Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Paramount Home Entertainment all switch away from Toshiba’s discontinued HD DVD format, some disc replicators who can’t change HD DVD lines will have to invest in building new Blu-ray facilities.

Executives from Sony’s DADC division, which expects to triple its North American Blu-ray disc production to 160 million discs this year, and Bertelsmann’s Arvato unit said they won’t have trouble meeting the increased demand, though Sony allowed that there could be temporary shortages if demand spikes.

“As with all formats that are growing in popularity, there is the potential to have spot shortages during peak seasons,” said Jim Twiggs, VP of strategic development at Sony DADC Americas. “At this point, there are no shortages, and the market is adding capacity as fast as possible to ensure adequate capacity for all.”

“We have just invested in more Blu-ray capacity,” Bertelsmann spokeswoman Simone Biermann said, adding that the division will “quickly be able to expand capacity in accordance with the customers’ demand.”

Other replicators are taking more of a wait-and-see approach.

“HD DVD lines cannot be switched over to make Blu-ray discs,” Cinram International spokeswoman Lyne Fisher said, estimating that the company’s annual Blu-ray capacity is 28 million discs. “We are still in discussions with the studios and are looking at industry data points to obtain a clearer picture so that we’re able to better assess how we’re going to invest in the Blu-ray business going forward.”

Replicators will have to ramp up after a slow start for high-def discs. After two years on the market, as much as 6% of discs purchased in the U.S. are high-def. Standard-def DVD, introduced as a replacement to VHS, accounted for as much as 12% of the market after two years, said Dave Hoffmann, VP at Nielsen Home Entertainment, at last week’s conference.

That rate is likely to accelerate, said Eric Rodli, executive VP and general manager of entertainment at software-licensing firm Macrovision, at the conference. U.S. spending on high-def discs will triple to about $1 billion this year and surge to about $8 billion in 2011, while standard DVD spending will fall to $16 billion from $22 billion during the same time period, said Rodli, citing consultant Understanding & Solutions statistics.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6540696.html

I had issue with that too. Say every player already HAD an Ethernet port... how many J6Ps would actually hook it up? I haven't read anywhere that it is garaunteed to be wireless either so who's running an extra cable to their home theaters? Answer: no one. Mine is connected only because the PS3 is wireless. Otherwise *I* wouldn't be connected either and my home office with internet is in the next room from my home theater.

And as for the manufacturers moaning about recouping development costs, cry me a freakin' river. We're essentially in a recession. They should be afraid of selling anything AT ALL!

As far as supply of the discs, they certainly wouldn't have to worry about running low if they stopped producing massive quantities of crap titles like Good Luck Chuck and Norbit!-ohbfrank-

Just a random number I pulled out of the air. Since only a few movies on either format have sold past that on release week (POT3, Transformers, Live Free Die Hard, Spider-Man 3, maybe 1 or 2 more), I figured it would be a safe number.

Problem is that "premium" product is something people simply do not care about when faced with the fact that many people are losing their jobs right now, their homes, and the shirts of their back. Of course a $300 player, or even $200 wouldn't help either for those people, but if they want to sell, it needs to be affordable, especially if they want to replace DVD before the 800lb gorilla in the room (VOD) comes.

You should really stop brining up the one time comment from several years ago by Amir. I could post several hysterical lines by the BDA as well to try and fuel my argument, but I won't.

You must have missed all the budget straight to DVD/Blu-ray films coming out next month... (Beer League, Blackbeard, 10.5) :lol: We may have a new Norbit.

Beer League had a theater run (164 theaters.)

And I thought it was a misprint when I found the Beer League Blu-ray listed on Future Shop's web site for $11.99.

Nah, J6P will just order up a wireless bridge and router from Newegg and configure his newfangled device for 100ft RJ-45 cable-free bliss!

:lol:

Not sure about everyone else, but my modem/router is NOT in my home theater set up. It's upstairs in my guest bedroom.

Mine is actually in my home theater room and I use wireless throughout the rest of my house. Works great since most everything that I have that needs an internet connection is in my home theater.

Tivo S3 (FIOS TV)
Toshiba A3
Xbox 360
IBM laptop

I have a desktop computer in my home office upstairs and LCD tv (w TivoHD) in the living room that both connect wirelessly for their connection.

I'm the reverse. Wireless router connected to my PC in office - PS3 and TiVo HD are wireless. Why anything in this day and age is equipped with an Ethernet port ONLY is beyond my comprehension. EVERYTHING should have a wireless option included out of the box (can you tell I'm a little bitter about TiVo HD's "add-on";)).

the irony of this comment is that it actually supports the concern in the article. if most people are in the boat of not being able to afford it (or not considering the current prices on par with the actual value) and they follow your advice, Blu-ray will have a much steeper uphill battle for consumer adoption, let alone DVD replacement.

personally though, i'm with bunkaroo. it wouldn't bother me at all if Blu-ray remained a premium, laserdisc-like product. i think there would be plenty of titles to satisfy me.

Wow. Just wow.

...yet I ordered a copy from Amazon. Sigh

Dude... you've got a serious case of extend arm, stick with needle. :lol:

I use a linksys wireless adapter for the LAN port on my HD-DVD player.

Gladiator was out on DVD for about 6 months before it hit VHS IIRC. I believe this was done with several day and date titles back in the earlier days of DVD.

EDIT:

Checking Amazon, they show an original release date of 11/21/00 for the DVD (which is the day I bought it :)), and a release date of 3/13/01 for the VHS, so about a 4 month exclusive window. I remember some people back then being miffed that they had to wait almost a year for it on home video when DVD owners got it earlier. I know it factored in to my decision to buying a player at that time.

Is this where we all "rush out to get a second job just to afford it?"

Ick.

Ethernet ports cost next to nothing and they are a long-ironed out standard. Wireless on each individual device starts creating device incompatiblies, differences in wireless card reception/antennas, etc. Then you have to configure the WEP/WPA keys on each device too.

You can get a couple of routers that support WDS bridging for next to nothing. I paid -$10 AR and $30 AR for a couple of Belkins like 3-4 years ago. I've got a Buffalo and a Belkin running my WDS now.

That gives you 4 ports of ethernet anywhere in the house. And it's really not that hard to set up.

Here's a Tom's Guide that talks about it, for the tech-inclined:

http://www.tomsguide.com/us/how-to-w...eview-253.html

He was shot in the parking lot. He'll end up several pounds lighter if he ever shows up.

Considering Disney just announced they have sold more then 4 million downloads in less then a year I wouldn't rule it out. That's more downloads then Blu-ray discs sold since inception. I think downloads have been available on iTunes for a year.

Sorry, can't post a link on my iPhone.

I wonder how many of those downloads were used on HD displays vs. personal devices.

Downloads for High Definition do not really work. If you want HD you are either going to have to watch it via BD or broadcast (usually 720p) or get a diminished picture by downloading that particular episode.

VOD does, though. I watched Grindhouse in high-def on Starz HD on Demand, f'r instance, and the quality seemed pretty solid to me.

Comparing the two is fallacious.

Who farts around with that crap? I just restrict wireless access on the router to certain MAC addresses...

Besides it has to be wireless SOMEWHERE. Easier to configure the router when a PC is connected to it.