VHS to DVD was a huge leap in quality, convenience and durability.

DVD to HDM is an upgrade in quality of audio and video but not as big of a leap. I don't believe that the situation is as different as you think it is. I guess we will have to wait and see how it all turns out over the next few years. I broke my crystal ball so I can't tell you what's going to happen.

EDIT: I'm sorry if I rubbed anyone the wrong way or insinuated that some of you may not like HDM when in fact you do.

The problem with HDM is that it doesn't yet have a killer app. Hopefully, there will be some creative uses of JAVA in the near future.

I liked HD DVD because of the price of the players, and frankly I don't care enough about HDM to buy a $400 player. I also think there are a lot of similar feelings out there - the prices are still early adopter prices and you get screwed with the profile problems anywhere. Seems like the NPD report confirms some of my feelings are not the feelings of a lunatic.

So now that the $130 HDM player is crippled due to the lack of studio support, what happens to HDM at this point is worthless to me. I would rather be able to watch HD VOD, which to me looks better than upconverted DVDs, but whatever. I don't care anymore what other people think.

Everybody know that in 2-3 years you will see "cheap" Blu Ray players to so why bother with this shit now. Its pretty funny to see people drooling over 2009 Blu Ray releases, those things are vaporware at this point, and by the time 2009 rolls around, I know we will see "cheap" Blu Ray standalones. Wake me up when that happens.

We "drool" over 2009 Blu-Ray releases because we can imagine how sweet they will look on the big screens we have in our homes.

It goes the other way as well...there are plenty of posts on this forum revealing the notion that anyone who believes that BR won't remain "niche" is blinded by the format.

Bunkaroo is absolutely right! Ever since Warner's announcement the niche talk suddenly became a preferred topic for discussion. I would add that the same goes for VOD.

Pro-B

Why? Would that have been a credible indicator regarding the future status of HD?

Someone noted earlier that the majority of posters appear to be misinformed about HD in general. I tend to agree. We had a poll running in this subforum and the majority of those who participated voted that Warner is likely to switch to HDDVD. Warner went the opposite way.

Pro-B

Part of the reason is that HDM looked like it had a brighter future with two formats as opposed to one. People keep forgetting that the reason HDM grew as fast as it did was because of the two formats, with more competition resulting in lower prices resulting in increased sales. Price has been, and will continue to be for sometime, the #1 factor in driving HDM sales. Unless the prices can dramatically come down to ridiculous levels, the masses will be hesitant to adopt.

Another reason is that people were so busy arguing between the formats that they didn't notice that there were other topics. :lol: We've had plenty of niche discussion as well as VOD discussion, although not nearly at the current levels.

When my wife was pregnant, she was convinced we were having a boy. She just felt it and could not be swayed.

Turns out she was right. Does that mean I think she could somehow naturally tell the sex of our unborn child? No, it means she had a 50-50 shot and got lucky.

It isn't a question of being "misinformed", it's about incorrectly calling a coin toss. Don't make it seem like there was any way anyone could have correctly called what Warner would do either way.

Yeah, a lot of things have happened since Warner's announcement! -wink- :shrug:

We will have to agree to disagree on this one. Perhaps it looked that way on this forum but elsewhere the prevailing notion was that one format is needed. And this was an opinion which was shared by both sides.

Specifically outside of fan forums duality was never a viable option. Dual proponents were always a minority: software distribs (Warner, MK2, etc); hardware manufacturers (LG), as well as "purple" owners.

Those who promoted only one of the formats were and are the majority (software, hardware, etc).

Pro-B

Companies who had a financial stake in one format or the other definitely wanted one format. And yea the movie studios by taking cash, incentives whatnot had reasons for exclusivity.

Whether or not that was best for the consumer, or for HDM as an alternative to DVD, is another matter entirely.

There are a ton of hardware manufacturers from Lowe to Funai and software disstribs from Optimum to Tartan to Anchor Bay who do not exactly fit your profiling above. Yet, they sided with exclusivity.

Pro-B

All those quoted above are small fish hardware and software manufacturers, at least in the consumer market.

...and that is why their decision making processes matter that much more. They evaluated long-term prospects.

You are right -- everyone had reasons. Even the consumers.

Pro-B

Yes, that was/is the prevailing notion. And they're all wrong. -wink-

I may or may not know what I'm talking about ... but the last couple years have PROVEN that the studios and the manufacturers certainly don't know what they're doing. So in all likelihood, they're all wrong. :D

VOD ????....is this the new keyword for the HD-DVD supporters ???
"niche format"???....is this the new rally cry for the anti-SONY/anti-BLU-RAY bashers ???

GET OVER IT !!! YOU LOST THE FORMAT WAR !!!
The amount of posts you declare on this forum ( hopefully swaying any newbies to your choice of HDM ) are at best pathetic and ultimately sad.

Could be, time will tell. But the more things crystallize the more it becomes evident that the majority of the studios sided with the format and its backers who were in for the long run.

When all is said and done and the format war is over it will be interesting to analyze what exactly were the true motivations behind the two camps' insistence on launching their own format. I can not help but speculate however that on HDDVD's side neither of the two big backers, Toshiba and Microsoft, envisioned an HD format progression similar to the one we witnessed with SDVD. The more the dust settles the more it becomes obvious that Microsoft was never really dedicated on supporting and making sure HDDVD emerges as the winner. They got involved with the HD fiasco for different reasons, their interests were elsewhere.

On the other hand I begin to believe that Toshiba had a much more flexible strategy as well. Since the bulk of their business is with SDVD I assume that they got involved with the war only to exhaust any potential enthusiasm for replacing SDVD with HD and de facto force the consumer to remain content with the current status quo - SDVD mass presence. The problem with such a scenario at least as far as Toshiba is concerned is that the studios needed another viable source of revenue and the opposing side teamed too many big players with long term-investments. As mentioned earlier on Toshiba's side Microsoft never really went all in.

This is why I don't agree with your duality scenario and I think a lot of the main players analyzed the HD standoff similarly. It will be interesting to see how everything comes to an end but suffice to say the fact that the studios need another massive source of revenue and neither SDVD nor dwindling theatrical attendance is likely to be it I believe that HD media will be more than "niche".

Pro-B

Wow. That is a conspiracy theory of epic proportions.

Paging Agents Moulder & Scully........ :rolleyes:

http://thejiveman.files.wordpress.co...infoil-hat.jpg

Not to mention the fact that this is a DISCUSSION, not a "Last Word to Blu-Ray" forum. Cripes.

I can't imagine that there's any merit whatsoever to this.

The studios are miffed that growth is flat, but the hardware manufacturers have it a lot worse. Margins for DVD player are razor thin, and the major manufacturers are competing against no-name companies who can get a player on store shelves for $30.

Toshiba has made a lot of money on DVD, but are they getting so much in patent revenue (because they're not making much on the hardware end) that it'd be worth spending many, many hundreds of millions of dollars -- if they haven't crossed the billion dollar mark -- on a product they've expressly earmarked for failure?

Sorry, that just sounds ridiculous to me.

Why would they? Honestly, I've been surprised Microsoft invested as much as they did.

Hell the BDA CE reps already blamed Toshiba for the release of Blu Ray 1.0 players so the next logical argument for the BluCrew is to blame HDM niche's status on HD DVD as well.

see http://www.betanews.com/article/Blur...nto/1199841379

Wow, somebody should send em some cheese for that whine.

I would have preferred HD win out, cheaper with established features is a good thing, but since it doesn't seem to be going in their favor, too bad so sad.

As for when HDM will be out of niche status? Probably in 2 or 3 years.

Yeah, you really can't blame a company for beating you to the punch, but then again, I would argue Toshiba's players weren't ready in other ways. The 1080p issue with all 2nd-gen and 3rd-gen boxes except the XA2 comes to mind.

The problem is that certain individuals are using the "HDM won't be a niche" argument to push an agenda that the only way for High Definition Media to break out of this niche is for one format to die, at which point the surviving format (conveniently the one they support) will experience explosive growth and rocket past DVD into mainstream mass acceptance.

Unfortunately, what they are bound to find is that even if the war ends today, Blu-ray will remain in niche status for the foreseeable future, because the public at large just doesn't give a damn about High Definition. All this nonsense about the evil format war and the need for one format to crush the other is pure bunk. There is no good reason why both formats can't coexist.