Threads like that make baby Jesus cry. :(

I wish that thread had a poll, so we could see the numbers.

That should be a sobering read for some here.

This isn't even the J6P we often refer to here. These are home video enthusiasts like you and me, saying this stuff.

They probably are home video enthusiasts but most likely many of them are not collectors or even buyers. There are a lot of people that post in these forums that don't even own a large SD collection. They simply like renting and watching movies, Some people don't have any justification to own media in either standard or high definition format. The thing you have to consider is that the majority of the public doesn't spend time on these forums and we live in a buyers society. As long as HD media sells well enough that we see an expansive catalog released I'm fine with it. I could really care less if everybody buys HD.

I urge you to re-read that thread and come back and tell us that there are not people with large collections on there.

Even some of those people (me included) with huge collections are realizing that it is all a bit much. I don't buy nearly as many movies. I used to think Netflix was a total waste, but I am now perfectly content renting most of the stuff we watch.

As I said before it is fine to rent and not buy but someone has to buy the copies you and the others choose to rent. As long as there is enough interest in HDM to continue for it to grow I'm happy. I could care less if all of my neighbors and their grandmothers have HDM.

I just wonder if those people who say they don't want to double dip are being consistent. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them would gladly upgrade a non-anamorphic disc to an anamorphic version, or buy a SE of something they have that's barebones, or buy a steelbook or other fancy packaging for more money or even to double dip. Buying titles you have on DVD in HD is really the same principle, even if the cost is higher as of now.

I'm not that concerned. HDM is already being sold in most mass market stores, and that's more progress than laserdisc ever made. Even if they weren't, online shopping makes it easy to acquire the discs. As long as the prices don't just go up (and lack of BOGO deals isn't what I mean), I'm satisfied enough.

^ While I understand the concern that even many DVD Talk denizens are reluctant to make the HD switch, I wouldn't put too much credence in the arguments made in that thread. A lot of the posters seem to be misinformed about HDM in general and there has been some defensiveness about making the switch for several years now among some with large DVD collections — the notion that HDM makes their DVDs obsolete seems to be a common theme. But I think that many of those folks will come around eventually because they have already exhibited signs of the home theater "bug" by accumulating DVD collections.

But, the proverbial J6P? It is hard for me to come up with a scenario where most of such people make the switch unless prices for players and discs become roughly equivalent to DVD, as others have suggested above. When one factors in the added complexity of HDM (firmware updates and the like) and the reported numbers of people who never even learned how to program a VCR, it seems to be a stretch to expect mass adoption of HDM.

Nevertheless, I would be surprised if HDM doesn't capture 10% of the DVD market in the next couple of years. I hope that will be a large enough market that we can see a wide range of releases from the studios.

Maybe I'm a "glass half full" kind of guy, but I look at the releases on HD DVD and BD to date and am pretty pleased with what we've been able to get in less than two years from launch. Yes, I'd like more back catalog titles too, but those may come in time as the install base grows. The North by Northwest news seems to be a cause for optimism IMO.

1.) Fear of being obsolete - well no. Maybe when the laserdisc/DVD switch happened, there was a real fear of being obsolete because the DVD players (with the exception of a few combo LD/DVD players) could not play laserdiscs.

2.) The "preexisting library" IMHO doesn't help HDM adoption - a lot of people are relatively content with what they have. I would bet a lot of the people with "collections" never had one before DVD, so it was a first time purchase. Try convincing them to spend another $30 on a mediocore release like Wall Street and there you go.

More evidence:

http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2008-02-06/#5

If there is a buck or two to be made then the studios will continue to support HDM. Although the overall profits probably won't reach DVD status and probably never will again there is still a portion of the general public and the rental business that has an interest in purchasing HDM. I really don't see them saying "If we don't have a majority of the sales going the way of HDM then we are going to fold." They look at it as they have already made a lot of money on lots of titles and are going to make another load of cash on the HD versions of movies that have already seen one or multiple releases. A few years ago we could have had this same discussion before double dips really became the norm. Most people then would have said that they wouldn't be interested in purchasing the same movie twice but that opinion hasn't shown in the rate at which double and triple dips hit the shelves.

Thanks! I bet that article put a smile on your face.

Then you haven't paid attention to anything I've ever written.

High-def disc market shows better growth rate than DVD
 

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35949/118/

I guess niche status is not going to last for very long.

Why do you people continue to insist that those of us who say that HDM will not overtake DVD are happy about it? We are making OBSERVATIONS. If you don't want to have a discussion, then why not just ignore this thread and stick to your Blu-Ray thread that you have tried to have the moderators purge of anything but Blu love.

Here's my position. I am always watching something. I have NO vested interest in how this format turns out, and I have no reason to WANT BD, HD-DVD, or HDM to fail. Yet here I am posting that it will most likely remain niche compared to DVD. I don't nor have I ever owned HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. I come to this forum to see how the formats are doing, and because I like seeing people discuss the pros and cons of the respective formats and HD in general.

I didn't care which of these formats won. I am only here to share my opinion. I'm not here to "gloat" that VOD is going to be the dominant format, or try to convince people that since HD-DVD lost HDM should die in favor of VOD. I actually prefer physical media. However I cannot deny that the convenience of VOD is very enticing to a lot of people. I like instant gratification, even if the quality isn't there. However I think VOD is a LONG way from being where I would like it to be. I watch HBO on Demand, but the selection for OnDemand services is really lackluster for the most part. Also, it sucks most of it isn't HD or in OAR.

I love this message board, and I would love to have discussions with you people without all the animosity.

So.... is that a bad thing? ;)

The problem is this "niche status" talk has really taken an upswing since the WB announcement. These days it can be hard to tell who wants to legitimately discuss that topic and who is pushing a scorched earth agenda.

Personally, as long as the titles come out, I don't really care how many people adopt it. I realize the more people adopt HDM, the more catalog titles we may get.

Still, if HDM never gets bigger than laserdisc, as long as it sees the variety of releases laserdisc had, I'm fine with it.

Totally different situation from when DVD started out.

HDM sales won't increase anywhere near the same level of increase that DVD had.

I completely agree with you on this. Why do some people on here that believe it is niche care that some us believe that it isn't? If you don't really care for HDM then don't buy it so why waste time by posting about it.

Because they make smart ass comments about how glad we are that it will be a niche and it's really damn annoying.

I'll find you some posts from every one of us that say this that are months old, if that's what it would take to get you people to stop telling us we are wishing teh doom on the blu-ray. ARGH. :hairpull:

So then quit carrying on the argument. I'm not losing any sleep tonight based on what people on this board think about HDM, my sports teams or anything else.

It's not really fair that disingenuous comments are being made about people based on their observations, then tell them that if they don't like having their positions misrepresented, they should shut up or go away.

Are you saying that those of us who think it's niche don't care for HDM?

If so...that's the whole problem.

Most definitely.

Which is why I believe both formats should've been allowed to keep going. Why? Because both HDM parties (the consumers and their supporting companies) had invested interests. Effectively, with this format "war", it killed a lot of participants who may not go HDM altogether at one extreme, but for the majority, there will be a major slowdown in getting HDM titles.

Two formats could've existed just fine, and over time, people would have NATURALLY gone to one major format because of a variety of factors, but all being rooted to one catalyst. But noooooo, we had to speed up this shithole of a format war, forcing a format choice. Why anyone would say this was a positive outcome, I'll never understand. Generally, the consumer makes the corporations produce a viable and efficient product. How? The catalyist, which is...Competition.

With no competition, you take out the competitive factor, and now the consumer only has the choice of NOT BUYING HDM TITLES, versus buying another HDM format because they prefer it.

Effectively, removing the competition, removing the allegiance to one side or the other, may have removed a lot of enthusiasm from the HD sector. Why? Well, I would imagine both sides were buying titles not only because they liked them, but because it was one title purchased to help "win the war". Now the war is effectively over, it's now becoming an HD post-Cold War era. People who were once enthusiastic about it, don't have anyone to fight, either an HD DVD user or a Blu-ray user. And just like any situation after a "war", you reduce your involvement with it. It's no longer a "threat" anymore. By having two competiting formats, the HD sector could have grown much much larger over a smaller period of time, and the consumer choosing which format was best for them.

Also, I'd like to bring up another point. If you own HD titles, you know what it looks like now. The mystery is basically over. Given this, are we now inclined to purchase an SD DVD version, knowing it COULD look better, but being satisfied with our upconverters because 1) the price was cheaper, and 2) the SD DVD had more features on it, and 3) the SD DVD was in a special packaging.

I mean really, I have to wonder if all of us are satisified with our shelves all having the same clone blue and/or red cases. Makes our collections look rather dull. Just thought I would comment on this because as many of us are avid collectors, having unique packaging is certainly part of collecting.

I never said that. But for people to decide the status of HDM shortly after its "birth" seems a bit silly. Then some people get all worked up and pull their hair out when some of us say that HDM is doing fine and looks like it will have a successful future. It may never make the money or own the market like DVD but I believe that it will be around for some time.