A while back, I relayed a story where some friends who had recently bought a new plasma were watching movies with their DVD player set to 4:3 mode and the TV stretching the picture sideways. I fixed that setting for them, only to be told "We don't see any difference".

The last time I went to their house, I found that they had changed the DVD player back to 4:3 and were watching movies stretched again.

Just an FYI ... there is NO truth to the above statement for a couple reasons.

(1) The 21 is 21% of US households, or 23.6 million. Slightly MORE than 21 million. This is the number of US households that have HD displays but not necessarily tuners. Only 13.7% of US households (15.5 million) are "HD Capable" (they have HD tuners and they are able to receive HD signal). Nielsen has so many categories, it's confusing. But I find these two to be the most relevant to our discussion. The HDTV market is a large market.

(2) The niche that we were discussing, correct me if I'm wrong, referred to the HDM, not HDTV. The HDTV adoption rate is very high, and I wouldn't be surprised if the 50% of the US households had HDTV by next year. There aren't 21 million HDM players out there. It is most certainly a niche product right now, and will remain so for at least the next several years.

You can quote this for truth.

Some numbers and some opinions about the market and HD stuff

2007 Year End Numbers
90 Million Households with DVD players
4.5 Million HDM devices (including 2.6 million PS3s (see page 4) ) sold

2006
31 million households with HDTV a year ago.
750K to 1.5 Million HDM Players sold in 2006

Totals --
90 Million Households with DVD players
52 Million estimated households with HDTVs, so 22 million new HDTVs out there
5.25 to 6 Million HDM players out there

So, 90 million households is the market ceiling -- because I doubt HD is going to make someone buy a HD Player who doesn't already have a DVD player. This ceiling is creeping up very slowly, 2 million growth over 2006 number, btw. I'm gonna conjecture that a third of the market has a recent HDTV display from the last two years.

It's interesting to look at the DVD hardware sales chart for 1997 and 1998 and see how HDM players are blowing past DVD right now in terms of sheer numbers (even if you discount PS3s). It's also easy to see scared execs in DVD divisions disparately looking for a way to continue year over year growth in a mature market that grew into a measly 2.3% more homes and with prices, margins, and gross dollars dropping.

The industry wants HDM players to take off and keep them going for another decade. Companies like Warner had high hopes or HDM and were expecting even better numbers. I can see each camp, Blu-ray and HD-DVD, whispering in their ear -- "If only the other side wasn't around, we'd make those numbers, you'd make your numbers, and we'd all be set for another decade." Warner really pressed for this purchase/sell-through media marketplace and, in my opinion, are tenaciously trying to buy a new life for this model. It's no surprise to me that they would make a bold move that they think will move this market forward. They don't want minor success, they want the money to back up to the loading dock.

I think like many here are saying, though, that HDM is a niche market. I'm no expert, but my consumer sense is telling me that HDM is going to stall in it's trajectory. Additionally, and this is still opinion, it's going to cap out into a niche of 15-25% of the marketplace (under 25 million). When this happens, the industry is gonna wake up and realize HDM is not going to track to DVD and replace it and be this new cash cow on top of the lame duck DVD.

Once these expectations come down, if HD-DVD is still viable and out there, you'll see two HDM formats can coexist. One, though, will always be a subset of the other, though. HD-DVD has been relegated to that subset, I fear.

My guess for the next great cash cow is not digital media downloads unto themselves, but the way you will pay for them -- a subscription model. Watch all media you want for X dollars a month. Subscription models are great when it comes to building income and growing a business (just keep people, add more people, raise prices every once in a while). On demand TV, netflix online, etc is the beginning.

-beebs
HD-DVD - about 40 titles
BR - about 25 titles

as a correlary to spainlinx0's post: i don't understand why it's so important to some people on here to believe that highdef media will remain a niche market. does it make those people think they're going to remain part of some select group or something, harking back to the golden laserdisc days when they were part of the small crowd "in the know"?

namja, it's difficult to know if you've misinterpreted my post or are simply using it in a way for which it was not intended. highdef media is clearly a niche right now, and 21million households was simply taken as a rough estimate since the total of households is around 100million. pedantry is irritating. people have stated in this thread (or it's earlier itterations) that "most" hdtv purchasers were looking for a large tv and weren't interested in highdef. the nielsen figures put the lie to that idea. 58% is a very significant percentage. obviously the majority of these people don't own a highdef media player yet, but that can and almost certainly will change for a large section of this market.

prices of all the equipment involved are droping, the selection of available media (an important criterea for most consumers) is expanding, and the confusing war between rival formats appears to be fizzling out. this all suggest a good period of growth ahead for a format which is only a year and a bit into it's lifecylce.

I don't think anyone's keeping their fingers crossed that it'll remain a niche. It's just a point of discussion.

I just want the movies I like in the highest possible quality at a vaguely affordable price. If 50,000,000 other people or only 50 other people buy in, I don't care.

I don't get it either. And given the number of refences to LD, I do think you might be on to something with the second part. As for "in the know", that's hardly the way I would go. More like those who could afford it.

I'm thinking a great period of growth is ahead. Unlike so many others, I do believe a large percentage of those holding out have been doing so for the reasons you posted above. IMO the end of their hold out will have big impact before the year is over.

Because it's reality. Some of us prefer to believe in reality.

Am I hoping that HDM will remain a niche? No, why would I? However, I recognize the truth of it, and frankly I don't see it as the huge negative that many people here are acting like it would be.

In reality, all i see is a Scorched Earth mindset from you because HD DVD has lost the war. Sorry you feel that way, but most of us know that Blu-Ray will one day overtake DVD and become the set standard for movies and storage and gaming. Just because you see everything up in flames does not make it so, things are just wonderful from where im standing, and the future is very bright with Blu-Ray. Stop trying to tell people your perspective is reality, that is your OPINION! And one skewed by bitterness and hate.

Since you don't seem to have understood the question, let me spell it out for you a little more clearly. In this utopian scenario where both formats thrive equally and every movie is released on both, let's also add the supposition that there will be no shortage of movies and that every classic movie that's released on DVD will also be released on HDM. What then would be your objection to having two formats?

What exactly was your question - what is the benefit of having two formats? Well, there's consumer choice and preference. What's the benefit of having both Coca Cola and Pepsi when clearly Coke is the market leader and both products do essentially the same thing (pump caffeine and sugar into kids) equally well? What's the benefit of having both PCs and Macs when it's obvious that Macintosh will never outsell PCs? Some people like Pepsi, and some people like Macintosh, so why deprive them of their preference if it's perfectly possible for those products to become profitable and find a place for themselves in the market?

There's also the fact that each High-Def format has its own strengths and benefits. Sure, Blu-rays have more storage space, which can be an advantage for certain types of content. Yet on the other hand, every HD DVD player is compatible with every type of HD DVD interactive feature, which is simply not the case with Blu-ray. Both products can have their place.

My question is whether they even make sense to you? Have you honestly thought through what you're saying? You would rather have no High Definition content at all than to live in a world where you'd only get some of the content you want in High Definition? How do you justify that thought process to yourself? Why does it have to be all or nothing? In what other aspect of your life do you apply these standards?

First your argument was that the format war was preventing the movies you like from being released. Now your argument is that the format war is keeping prices too high? Which is it?

The format war is the sole reason that prices have been driven down as low as they are. You can buy an HD DVD player for $150 and a Blu-ray player for $300. If not for the war, you'd be paying over $1,000 for that Blu-ray player. The format war has driven the Blu-ray studios to hold Buy-One-Get-One-Free sales almost constantly for the past 6 months, and has driven major retailers like Amazon to have repeated $15 blowout sales on titles from both formats. And you're complaining that prices are too high? Give me a break.

Do you even know what "scorched earth" means?

Here's what scorched earth is: Scorched earth is Sony driving their entire multi-national corporation into a huge financial deficit by selling their PS3 at a loss in order to "win" the video game console war and in order to "win" the High Definition format war, even though they've put themselves in a position where they will likely never recoup the costs they've expended. Scorched earth is paying over half a billion dollars to buy the exclusivity of numerous movie studios to your format, even though the format has demonstrated no likelihood of bringing that kind of income in return. Scorched earth is winning at all costs, even if the victory destroys you in the process. That's scorched earth.

Recognizing that High Definition Media is a niche product for the home theater consumer, and that everyone would be better off if they'd re-align their business focuses to properly target the correct market for their products... There's nothing "scorched earth" about that. That's good business sense, which neither side of this conflict has yet demonstrated.

Totally agree. However, we don't have enough history yet, to see if HD movies will in fact increase in price. This is the biggest concern, at least to me when discussing investing in HD collections.

Sure, movies are $15 now--even $10 for the Blu-ray B1G1 sales, but what about a year from now. Amazon may no longer have the sales because Sony and WB and whoever else, won't validate the promo. Look at how many titles Amazon is offering for HD DVD on their sales. It's shit. This is because the studios supporting HD DVD aren't willing to promo the movies. Which is one of the reasons why HD DVD lost and will continue to lose ground.

Most of us KNOW?

You are talking about a format that is nearing 2 years old and has yet to achieve 1% of the DVD market COMBINED (SI!) with HD DVD (in a years span). Less then 1%. You are talking about a format that is primarily sold (and still even here) because its inside of a video game system; a video game system that has failed on the level of Sega Saturn/Game Cube. You are talking about a format that has players with different features that may or may not be able to play all movies correctly in the next few weeks/months/years. A format that movies released TODAY can not work on a player released weeks before (and who knows if they ever will). A straight to DVD movie like American Pie 5 may have sold better on DVD in 1 week then Blu-ray has SI.

As much as I would LOVE to see HDM continue on (Blu-ray/HD DVD, both, whatever), I think we are far past that point. Fast internet connections are here, HD VOD is here in several forms (Xbox, iTunes, Satellite, Cable, etc), and most people are content with $59 up converting DVD players, not $400 Blu-ray players with movies 2-4x more expensive then the DVD counterparts. And by most, I mean MOST, otherwise you would see Blu-ray/HD DVD players selling in the 100k a week, right now they are selling less then 15k a week, and thats with giving them away with TVs for the past few weeks.

Had Blu-ray/HD DVD united and formed a single format and in April 2006 released a player, with all studio support, for $499, with discs at a $5-$10 premium over DVD, it might have succeeded. Might. Hopefully these studios will continue to release movies in HDM even after their "incentives" run dry.

Honestly, I think in 2 years when I bump your quote we will all be laughing.

BOGOs and great deals are all but dead now on Blu-ray. What once was a weekly BOGO at several stores has been nothing since the Warner announcement. Sure, we had a few at Amazon, but nothing like we had for the past 6-9 months at retail stores. I keep checking Fry's every day for another BOGO, but alas, nothing. Will HDM prices go up? They already have. Most of us have been conditioned to wait for BOGOs on catalog titles (and even new released!), which is exactly why I havn't touched many movies in the past few weeks.

You forget that not all of us have the luxury of having a Fry's around to give us the bi-monthly HDM BOGO. Most of us rely on Amazon or Best Buy for our HD Media.

Yes, the BOGO's seem to have stopped for now, but the regular prices have fallen. Many HD titles that were once 24.99-29.99 have dropped to the $15-$20 range on amazon...except for Fox titles of course . These titles also seem to have dropped a few bucks at retail as well. I don't see regular prices increasing either. People will simply by SD if prices are any higher.

I think you also have to realize that we are in the minority...not just for the reason that we have HD players...but that many of us refuse to pay regular price for anything. I'm willing to say that most people with HD players are paying regular price for their media and don't nickel and dime every purchase like we do.

Hopefully we will see some more BOGO's pretty soon. BD has to counter the HD DVD SB commercial and slashed player pricing somehow. I think we will see BOGO's again when BD starts to feel a little more pressure.

You're correct. Best Buy is by far the largest seller of HDM and that includes Amazon.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6487731

could you tone down your rhetoric please? nobody likes to be told they're delusional, or that they aren't living in reality, and it isn't conducive to a harmonious exploration of each other's viewpoints.

where we are now is reality, not the unprovable predictions of anyone posting to this thread.

Scorched earth: "The scorched earth policy is actually a classic military strategy: generals would instruct troops to burn any land/crops/trees as they retreated so there would be no supplies to refresh the advancing army."

sony are practicing another strategem more recently known as "shock and awe".

I don't believe that HDM will be a niche market, at least not in the long term. I see people eventually buying Blu-Ray players as prices fall. A large switchover won't happen anytime soon. It seems people want results, and want them now. But even DVD took years and Blu-Ray's not going to be adopted at nearly the same rate. But eventually more and more people will have Blu-Ray players. And once there's enough of a base, I'm sure studios will try and "push" people towards High Def even more. Maybe they fail and people just keep buying DVDs, even with Blu-Ray players. But I do think enough people will switch in time to pull HDM out of niche status. It just make take many, many years.

Let's be honest. The vast majority of these people that are so vocal about BD supplanting DVD are likely PS3 owners that need something, ANYTHING to hang the weight of their purchase on, since with every day that passes in the video game war, it seem more and more like Sony will be bringing up the distant rear.

If it fails as a games machine AND BD is anything but the "new DVD" then there are a lot of people who will feel they got fucked over.

Qui Gon...

I usually agree with your posts...but this one...not so much.

This may be right for a few of "these people", but I really think you're stretching it by saying it's the majority. I think some of us want HDM to succeed so bad, whether it is BD or HD DVD...that we have a hard time believing that all this bickering, buying titles, and buying players is for nothing or just a niche product. This goes for both sides.

And yes, I own a PS3...but I also own an A2. Both are absolutely fantastic HD players and I don't want either to go tits up.

You constantly bash the PS3 in many of your posts, and I know it's just because of the few vocal PS3 owners are extremely one sided with their posts. The PS3 is a nice piece of equipment. It isn't the "end all, be all" that some make it out to be...but it serves its purpose for many of us level headed movie lovers. It also got me back into gaming...a little .

Look...if HDM is going to be niche...so be it. I didn't get into Laserdisc, but it sounds like many of you had great experiences even though it was a niche product. I just want my HD movies on a disc format. That is all I ask.

Fair enough. I do not meant to generalize PS3 owners, and by reading your response above, you certaily do not fall into the category of people I was adressing. I was speaking more directly about the 5 or 6 posters that lash out like a caged animals at any critical thing said about Sony/BD/PS3.

Also, if you look at my entire history of posts, I have never ever said a negative word about the quality of the hardware, or for that matter, BD as a media format. I think the PS3 is going to go down as the Dreamcast or Saturn of this generation where only years from now will people be able to appreciate what the equipment could have done. A lesser opponent will win, just as it did with Saturn and PS1.

When the price is right for me, I will get a PS3.

All of this does not change the FACT that PS3 is a distant third in the console "race." Sony made an error of astronomical proportions when they made the decision to tie PS3 to BD so tightly. Without waiting for BD and the economical ramifications of putting it in, there is little doubt in my mind that PS3 would have DESTROYED XBox360, especially since year one of the console, froma stabilty/reliability standpoint would have clearly gone to PS3.

To me, BD does not need to overtake DVD to be considered successful. I think if they are able to capture even 10% of the market and cater to those people then BD, while "niche" would be successful. Aspiring to be the laserdisc is not a bad thing.

I honestly think the mainstream is moving on from pre-recorded media. The total possible market is shrinking.

Qui Gon...good stuff.

I'm willing to pay a premium for my HD discs...niche or not. My DVD purchasing habits have changed a lot in the past 2 years. I no longer see a movie and think..."man, I HAVE to own that on DVD". I have too many discs that I've only watched once or not at all. I'm more selective with my purchases now and I don't mind paying a little more if something is really worth it to me.

I do have some "dogs" on HDM...X3 anyone? But, I was just getting into the formats at the time, and good pricing (and sony rebates) led me to make some purchases I may not have made in the past couple of years.

I'm pretty happy with HDM right now even though it is a niche product, and it's been fun being an early adopter. Hopefully we'll continue to get great titles and transfers in the future.

As for the console wars...I don't really think it matters to most of us. Each console will still have exclusives and should thrive for a while. Even if the PS3 continues to lag in the market we'll still get some great films and decent games (although I won't buy many) for a few years.

I'm willing to pay a premium on some HDM titles (hell even double dip my DVD titles), because those are going to be the movies I know I watch - i.e.

Alien + Aliens, maybe some of the Schwarzenneger movies, Big Trouble in Little China, a few others here and there - but beyond that I don't really care all that much.

I watched Ratatouille (via Netflix) last night on DVD (uponcoverted) looked great, but I'm never going to watch it again..so I have no need for it on Blu Ray, HD DVD or even DVD.

People tend to forget that a lot of the early DVD growth on this forum was directly spawned from the ability to get titles for something like 8 or 9 bucks SHIPPED. (reel.com coupons, amazon coupons, bigstar coupons)....a lot of the HDM sale prices were marketing driven and seem to be over IMHO. When you factor in the fact that at that time, Netflix was just getting off the ground and a typical rental at Blockbuster was $5+change (if they even had a DVD), sales were a no brainer. Now I'm not so sure.

Just a thought.

If these had been my friends...
Well, quite simply, they wouldn't be my friends anymore.

And consequently leave nothing for themselves to claim when they "win" the campaign.

Right, and we know how well that's worked out for the real military recently.

Hey, I like X3.
Granted, it's no X2....or Batman Begins....but it's certainly better than The Punisher, or Superman 4, or Batman & Robin, etc. etc.....

I do get what you're saying though...as I have found myself at times buying movies I only kind of liked just because they were in high def and I could get them pretty cheap through a BOGO or whatever sale...I think it's a lot easier to fall into that trap considering the much smaller number of titles available....I don't think you can be as picky when both sides only have released about, what, 700-750 titles combined (obviously not counting those with a dual-format release), while standard DVD has more than 50x that to pick from...