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-   -   When Will Standard DVD Die? (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/hd-talk/522012-when-will-standard-dvd-die.html)

cardaway 01-08-08 08:05 PM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
Actually, most do not. I am in IT and I can attest to this being a fact.

Nice try. Windows updates anybody? How about the thousands of software titles that require patches? I think even Mac's still reuire updates now an then. Makes me wonder if you;re even really in IT. If you were, there is no way you would make that statement.

If a person buying modern electronics isn't capable of folliwing the directions to install an update then maybe they should stick to things they can handle.

PopcornTreeCt 01-08-08 08:10 PM

Kinda surprised that so many here feel that DVD is here to stay. I just don't see it that way. DVD sales have been on the decline over the past few years. I think pretty much new releases are the only things people are buying nowadays and the studios could gradually phase those out by releasing new releases on blu-ray only. Another thing to consider: once you go blu you don't go back. Every blu-ray player purchased is one less DVD buyer. Again, that isn't an exact science but most people on here have already stated they won't buy DVDs anymore while others say it will be very minimal.

So, yes DVD will die and sooner rather than later

slop101 01-08-08 08:11 PM


Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
Really? When? How much will downloads cost? Will we pay on every viewing? How long will a download take? What if everyone on my block is downloading a 2 hour movie at the same time, how long will that take? What if my hard drive fails?

What's Best Buy and Walmart going to use as loss leaders to get people into stores?

Wow. That reads like a very scared response. To roughly answer your questions, just look at what's been going on with music as a model to what will happen with movies. It won't be exact, but pretty close. It won't kill your dvd collection, so nothing to get scared about. Dvds just won't be as ubiquitous as they are now, just like CDs aren't as prevalent and in demand as they were 10-15 years ago.

Qui Gon Jim 01-08-08 08:12 PM


Originally Posted by cardaway
Nice try. Windows updates anybody? How about the thousands of software titles that require patches? I think even Mac's still reuire updates now an then. Makes me wonder if you;re even really in IT. If you were, there is no way you would make that statement.

If a person buying modern electronics isn't capable of folliwing the directions to install an update then maybe they should stick to things they can handle.

Buddy, I manage a network with over 2000 nodes and close to 6000 users. If left to them, users would NEVER install updates. They just don't want to be bothered or don't understand the importance. The little bubble pops up, they close it. Sure there are some of our savvier users that would do it, but I would say 95% would ignore it. If this wasn't an issue, there would be no need for WSUS, or SMS. Trust me pal, YOU have no clue on this matter.

Let's play a game. Let's discuss without insulting each other. Mr Cinema and I are having a back-forth, but I have never called him a liar or vice-versa.

I reiterate: not the readership here, but people in general don't want to spend hours of setup to get things to work. They want to turn something on and have it work. The most successful products are those that require little training. Manual transmission cars offer better performance, but I would bet that the ratio of AT to MT is quite lopsided.

Jacoby Ellsbury 01-08-08 08:19 PM

What can blue ray do in terms of picture quality that you couldnt get with an upconverter player? I read today that blu-ray's will be interactive and have picture in picture(director commentary in PIP while movie plays), so I realize they will have more functionality but how's the picture difference?

How come people are buying these barebone releases of high definition discs, won't there be loaded up special editions down the line? I thought we played this game already.

Fist of Doom 01-08-08 08:21 PM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
How many people do you know that have 4 remotes because they can't be bothered to "program" a universal $10 remote? How about people who don't set the clocks on their appliances?

I purchased, and even programmed, said $10 remote. But I still use all the individual remotes because I'm so damn used to them. My VCR has been
blinking 12:00 for literally 8 years.


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
If left to them, users would NEVER install updates. They just don't want to be bothered or don't understand the importance. The little bubble pops up, they close it.

I hate those fuckin' bubbles. I can't close them fast enough.

Standard DVDs won't die for a long time because of people like me who just don't give enough of a shit to bother upgrading.

Qui Gon Jim 01-08-08 08:22 PM

A DVD has 480 lines of resolution. The chips in an upconverter use algorithms to extrapolate the missing lines to bring the picture up to 1080 lines. With BD, all 1080 lines are there and true, not "estimated." The image will be much clearer, more colorful and stable.

cardaway 01-08-08 08:43 PM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
Buddy, I manage a network with over 2000 nodes and close to 6000 users. If left to them, users would NEVER install updates. They just don't want to be bothered or don't understand the importance. The little bubble pops up, they close it. Sure there are some of our savvier users that would do it, but I would say 95% would ignore it. If this wasn't an issue, there would be no need for WSUS, or SMS. Trust me pal, YOU have no clue on this matter..

Let's play a game. Let's discuss without insulting each other. Mr Cinema and I are having a back-forth, but I have never called him a liar or vice-versa.

I'm not your pal, and you went off the deep end of insulting many hours ago in another thread. Or are you going to pretend otherwise now that it's locked?

IMO people who have an IT dept. supporting them are not a valid comparison to the home consumer.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 06:24 AM


Originally Posted by cardaway
I'm not your pal, and you went off the deep end of insulting many hours ago in another thread. Or are you going to pretend otherwise now that it's locked?

IMO people who have an IT dept. supporting them are not a valid comparison to the home consumer.

They are the same people.

cardaway 01-09-08 08:25 AM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
They are the same people.

And the majority of people I know at work go home and uprage their own electronics, especially computers and software, as I described. They're smart people and they can handle it.

Brian Shannon 01-09-08 08:51 AM


Kinda surprised that so many here feel that DVD is here to stay. I just don't see it that way. DVD sales have been on the decline over the past few years.
Decline? Perhaps. When DVD sells 2.4 billion discs and hdm sold 14.2 million last year, it is very tough to argue that standard dvd is going away anytime soon.

cardaway 01-09-08 08:58 AM


Originally Posted by Brian Shannon
Decline? Perhaps. When DVD sells 2.4 billion discs and hdm sold 14.2 million last year, it is very tough to agrue that standard dvd is going away anytime soon.

I have to agree. Like VHS, I think it will take companies refusing to manafacture any more DVDs. Forcing people to switch if they want to view new releases at home.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 09:30 AM


Originally Posted by cardaway
And the majority of people I know at work go home and uprage their own electronics, especially computers and software, as I described. They're smart people and they can handle it.

What can I say? You must run with Mensa.

As I said, from my experience, most people don't want to be bothered making stuff work, they just want it to work. I don't think that the people around me are "dumb." They just can't be bothered to tweak and prod something to get it running. EVERYTHING in IT is geared towards being turn-key for end users. Why? Because that is what the average person wants. They want to push a button or two and go.

I deal with this from the second I get to work till the second I leave.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 09:33 AM


Originally Posted by cardaway
I have to agree. Like VHS, I think it will take companies refusing to manafacture any more DVDs. Forcing people to switch if they want to view new releases at home.

And until DVD is no longer profitable, this will NEVER happen. These companies aren't so in love with BD that they wouldn't shit can it tommorow if they mad no money off of it.

Releases still came out on VHS until DVD overtook it as the dominant format. To not release to try and "force" a change would be met with a consumer backlash. It would be financially irresponsible for any studio to follow a plan like you outline above. It would be suicidal.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 09:34 AM

Also, DVD sales are not declining...yet. DVD sales GROWTH is declining. There is a significant difference.

cardaway 01-09-08 09:40 AM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
And until DVD is no longer profitable, this will NEVER happen. These companies aren't so in love with BD that they wouldn't shit can it tommorow if they mad no money off of it.

Releases still came out on VHS until DVD overtook it as the dominant format. To not release to try and "force" a change would be met with a consumer backlash. It would be financially irresponsible for any studio to follow a plan like you outline above. It would be suicidal.

I agree. It's why you didn't see me state why they stopped making VHS, only that they eventually did. Why they did is obvious.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 09:52 AM


Originally Posted by cardaway
I agree. It's why you didn't see me state why they stopped making VHS, only that they eventually did. Why they did is obvious.


Originally Posted by cardaway
Like VHS, I think it will take companies refusing to manafacture any more DVDs. Forcing people to switch if they want to view new releases at home.

This did not happen. Studios slowed VHS releases when DVD became the dominant format.
Even up to the recent closures of Movie Gallery stores, I was still seeing VHS on the previously viewed shelves.

cardaway 01-09-08 09:56 AM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
This did not happen. Studios slowed VHS releases when DVD became the dominant format.
Even up to the recent closures of Movie Gallery stores, I was still seeing VHS on the previously viewed shelves.

It most certaily did. Some studios totally stopped releasing new titles on VHS. As a buyer of VHS at the time, I remember those anouncements very clearly.

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 10:01 AM

They slowed VHS releases once DVD took over the market. They did not withhold movies to spur sales of DVD. You need to do some fact-checking.

Consumers decide with their money. They decided that DVD was a better value for the money than VHS. Now we will see if they will decide that BD is a better value for their money than DVD.

cardaway 01-09-08 10:06 AM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
They slowed VHS releases once DVD took over the market. They did not withhold movies to spur sales of DVD. You need to do some fact-checking.

Were you not just going after somebody for not citing their source if they claim something as fact? So where are your facts since you claim to know more than others? Or are you one of those people who claims THEIR opinion as fact and asks things of others they will not do themselves.

I stated companies did cease to manuafacture VHS and that forced consumers to make the switch. Obviously there was still a market for VHS at the time (since many companies continued to release VHS), but people were forced to switch if they wanted to see many of the new releases.

danicus007 01-09-08 10:11 AM


Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
What can I say? You must run with Mensa.

As I said, from my experience, most people don't want to be bothered making stuff work, they just want it to work. I don't think that the people around me are "dumb." They just can't be bothered to tweak and prod something to get it running. EVERYTHING in IT is geared towards being turn-key for end users. Why? Because that is what the average person wants. They want to push a button or two and go.

I deal with this from the second I get to work till the second I leave.

I have to agree with Qui Gon, and not just because I'm also in the IT field. Just because we have the capacity (and desire) to figure out how to update things and make the most out of our equipment doesn't mean the majority of people do. My in-laws are only in their early 60's and are very sharp, but when it comes to the TV and the Computer they just freeze up and don't know what to do. I mean the easiest little things they cannot figure out. The don't even know where to start.

I set them up with an OTA antenna since their TV has a built in tuner. I taught them how to change the inputs to watch HD and then how to switch back to Cable broadcasts. I even printed up a tutorial with images of their remotes with step by step instructions and the buttons circled and they still won't use the thing. I asked my father-in-law if he watched the football game on CBS in HD and he said it was too confusing so he watched it on cable. I can't make it any easier without being there in person to push the buttons for them. I can't even fathom them trying to update a piece of equipment with a patch...Microsoft tries to do it for them and they still find a way to mess it up.

phatboy 01-09-08 10:12 AM

i just read somewhere that dvds sold something like 200 some million copies last year and hd disks sold only 14 million....wish I could find that source again

nateman 01-09-08 10:15 AM


Originally Posted by namja
Actually, the upconverted DVD looks so good that the masses cannot tell the difference between an upconverted DVD and HD, especially on TVs 32" and smaller. And the majority of the TVs sold today (not counting the millions that are already in the homes) are still 32" or smaller.

I know I'm going a little off-topic here, but does an upconverted DVD look as good as HD, when on a 32" or smaller HDTV?

Qui Gon Jim 01-09-08 10:15 AM

Cardaway,
I am done with you. Are you from AVS? You are clearly just spoiling for a fight.

You contradict yourself. Your blind love for Blu-Ray is causing you to make up facts that are not true. You are taking criticism of a media format (criticism I leveled at BOTH formats BTW) as a personal slight. I am not trying to stop anyone from enjoying anything. I plan on buying a BD player. BD is a very capable format, and one that should be outstanding with some seasoning and standardization. I have long advocated support of both formats. On top of that you rush to the defense of those that are indefensible.

You are clearly not mature enough to have a conversation without getting personal or trying to bait the other into a fight. I have nothing personally against you. I don't need you to agree with me. However, you can't seem to handle anything outside your myopic view of the way things are. Maybe a DISCUSSION forum is not the place for you.

Congrats, you are the first person I have ever added to ignore. Don't bother replying, it will go unread and unanswered.

hoyalawya 01-09-08 10:19 AM


Originally Posted by cardaway
Were you not just going after somebody for not citing their source if they claim something as fact? So where are your facts since you claim to know more than others? Or are you one of those people who claims THEIR opinion as fact and asks things of others they will not do themselves.

I stated companies did cease to manuafacture VHS and that forced consumers to make the switch. Obviously there was still a market for VHS at the time (since many companies continued to release VHS), but people were forced to switch if they wanted to see many of the new releases.

IIRC, the studios stopped releasing titles on VHS because it was no longer profitable. I can see DVD be profitable for a long time.


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