I guess my experience with Comcast VOD is different than others. First of all, the quality is not all that. Not even close in most cases I have seen.

Secondly, it seems to be down quite often. It also seems to glitch out mid movie quite a bit which would piss me off if I was paying to view that movie seperately. But I am still technically paying for the service (as part of the overall price) so it bugs me that it has as many issues as it does.

Certainly not something I would count on at this point. Not by a long shot.

When Will Standard DVD Die?
 

Judging by the Circuitous City I was just in, not for long, long time.

The SD section was brimmimg and ubiquitous throughout the store. The HD sections looked like a Moscow grocery store, circa 1982. I even asked the section "manager" if there were any displays I might have missed...."No", he said, "that's it".

But in my experience, that's just a reflection of CC these days. Everything is a mess there, not just their HD section. Basically I wonder how they can stay in business.

Every other store I have been to has a well stocked and large HD section now. Or at least as well stocked as they can be with the b1g1 sales they have been having. ;)

Its not just in stores that DVD is everywhere. There are TVs, computers, portables, hell even cars have DVD players now. Until all of those devices have a decent BD alternative, it is hard to imagine DVD going away.

Tangentially, how many people would update the firmware of the BD players in their minivans?

I think Comcast HD VOD right now is pretty meh... there may be potential but it still has a long way to go to touch pressed HDM:
1. Too compressed (though supposedly better than anything on DirecTV's HD Lite)
2. No 1080P
3. Quite often not in OAR
4. Can't access chapters/specific scenes
5. Very slow rewind & FF speed (in fact, only 1 speed)
6. Other things about it that suck but I can't think of right now.

Not saying it can't get better, but it needs a lot of work to please me.

I don't think anyone's saying that the VOD as is will replace HD DVD or Blu-ray.
But in 5 years? Or 10?

The VOD experience should be much better than the current HDM experience.

Do people really think that players of either HD format will not be going into cars, computers, or portable devices in the future? I know it doesnt make a lot of sense from an image and sound quality perspective, but it's not like they are not backwards compatible. People would then be able to play both HD and SD in these new places, which would be great for those times when home theater quality doesn't matter.

In fact, since Fox, Disney, and Dreamworks will likley all be Blu soon, I can see somebody making sure they have the BD kid movies in the car market covered. The gamble of what format player to go with being a thing of the past.

Those are the two that really get me.

3) In some cases it's not just an OAR issue from a P&S or open matte standpoint, but just flat out stetching of the image or cutting of the image. In some cases it's been fun to watch for a time just to see how bizaare it looks, but overall it's just unacceptable.

5) As for FF, I agree, but that's just the beginning. I basically have to make the call if I'm going to be able to sit through the whole movie, just like a theater. If I pause, the thing may crash. If it crashes towards the end of the movie, it takes forever to FF back tot he scene where it crashed. And it crashes about 50% of the time when I pause and walk away. But I admit, it is getting better. Especially just the TV content that only has to last for 42 minutes or so.

No it doesn't make any sense to spend money to get an Blu Ray player in a car...from either a consumer experience or manufacturer standpoint.

And when Blu Ray becomes cheap enough to put into cars for absolutely no reason, I guarantee you the studios./hardware manafactuers will have already developed the next way to deliver movies.

Dual inventory is the bane of the entire retail chain of supply. Does anyone remember what it was like when we had both VHS and DVD? Both CD and LP (and cassettes!)?

Shelf space IS money. The studios have every reason to push as hard as they can to replace SD with HD as quickly as they can, so that they don't have to package and ship two formats for every title.

Today's technology offers a number of ways to make the transition easy. The obvious first step is to push VOD as a replacement for rentals of physical media -- which is what most DVD players are used for most of the time.

Getting people to replace SD players with HDM players is the next step. Shouldn't be that hard if the prices are right, especially with the HD players that can play everything well that I'm sure we'll be seeing by next year. People by and large gave up their turntables and VCRs easily enough.

Think about it. How many of the SD players in service today will be junked over the next years anyway? Especially the cheaper ones that the mass market owns? What's the downside for those people to replace them with HDM players, if the price is right? After all, they'll probably all have HD TVs by then too.

I don't know. I have still have my old Toshiba 3109 from like 1999 that works like a champ . Thats pretty old.

Read through the last few pages. It's pretty clear that DVD is here to stay sorta like CD is here to stay.

VHS -> DVD (HUGE STEP, like bicycle to car)
DVD -> HD DVD or Blu-ray (MINOR STEP, like Honda Civic to Mercedes S Class)

If the price is right, then yes. HD players will replace SD players. Just as if the price is right, people will replace the Honda Civics with a Mercedes S class.

No reason? How about simply wanting to be able to play what could end up being a large BD collection somewhere other than your home theater. Other than the cost, I don't see how this is any different than wanting a DVD player in the car.

in a few years, will they even be making dvd players? BD will be very affordable by then and we all know they play dvds. so what would be the point of making a dvd player? what else is there to add?

True. When BD players become $50, then they will probably quit making DVD players.

Well first the assumption that BD players will be very affordable. As long as there is a massive market for DVD's, studios willl support them, which means DVD players will have to exist. As long as DVD players exist, hardware companies market BD players as premium. So I don't know if BD players will ever reach the "affordability" of normal DVD players. Sure they will be cheaper, but will we ever see a $99 BD player - maybe, but buy that time, I think there will be other ways to deliver movies digitally in a way that is either equivalent to, or just a little bit inferior than BD.

So yeah if we reach $99 Blu Ray players, then DVD hardware players might become obsolete. But thats a big if, and given the desire for hardware manafaturers to make a buck or two off Blu Ray, I don't see it happening anytime soon.

Exactly. And affordable IMO doesn't even have to mean as low as SD DVD players are now.

It is likely to happen before that. DVD machines forced VHS out of the market long before such a price point was reached and high-priced combo players were in very small numbers.

(With BR players) the task to phase out SDVD players will be further eased by the fact that they are all backwards compatible and people could easily play their old dvds in the new machines. And since there is very little business left in SDVD machines for the hardware manufacturers to continue supply them in large numbers I believe that their marketing philosophy will be in sync with the majors: selling what they could all over again.

Pro-B

It will be like CD players, where you can't really buy a single-disc non-portable player unless it's from some high-priced specialty manufacturer.

One of these reasons I like his films, but don't think much of him personally.

Very well said. IMO the biggest key is they play both, and if they continue to be liek the PS3, do an awesome job of it.

Only because VHS-to-DVD was a huge leap in technology. BD is merely an extension of that technology.

I don't think anyone disagrees that HD players can displace SD players if the price is right. But as we can see by the Blu-ray sales figures, people are not willing to pay $300~$999 for a machine (despite being backwards compatible with DVDs and all) if they can buy a DVD player for $50.

The main problem with Blu-ray so far has not been the competition from HD DVD. It has been the price of Blu-ray players.

there are a lot of factors that make this tough to call. DVD overtook VHS relatively quickly, because the advantages in virtually every respect were blatantly obvious. and not only did it overtake VHS, but it revolutionized the home video retail market. more people purchase DVDs than ever purchased VHS tapes. retail stores never had a VHS section as extensive as the current DVD sections.

the dynamics now are much different. the jump to hi-def does not offer the obvious advantages that DVD to VHS did. more people already own a large library of catalog titles on DVD that they may be reluctant to replace. many consumers still don't have a hi-def television. even once there is officially only one hi-def format, there are still plenty of hurdles to overtake DVD.

that being said, there are also some different dynamics on the positive side. the players are backwards compatible with DVD, which is significant. if the economics can play out well enough, i see no reason why blu-ray players can't completely replace DVD players eventually (but probably years down the road). the price point does not need to reach the $50-cheapo-dvd player level, but the average price of players from a variety of manufacturers does need to come down considerably for it to happen. the studios' propensity for double-dip releases on DVD should show us that enough consumers are willing to rebuy a title they already own, so there ought to eventually be at least a passable market for catalog titles in hi-def.

all in all, i personally believe it will remain a large-ish niche market for at least another 2-3 years, but will start to make inroads as hi-def in general continues to become more and more mainstream.

I would also add that DVD's success was like the planets aligning. A product that was an obvious upgrade in quality and a paradigm shift in consumption came along at the exact same time as supply/demand made the media plentiful and affordable, AND the masses bought into the idea of ownership rather than rentals for the first time.

Now even if BD players supplant DVD players in stores, which I think may happen, there is still the issue of people wanting media for those machines they have invested in adding to all these nooks and crannies of life. It is a fact that DVDs can be profitable at $1 apiece. When does BD get to that point? On top of this you are asking people to go out and essentially buy what they have already bought over again, and for more money. This sounds like no big deal to you or me, but I can tell you that there are lots of people who do not double dip. Hell, I sometimes have a hard sell with my in-laws to get them to upgrade what they say are some of their favorites from VHS to DVD.

I am not saying they can't do it, but BD has a tough road ahead, and it certainly won't be over in 10 years time, never mind five.

What % of people actually double dipped DVDs?
I did a lot, and a lot of people I know did, but we're all movie lovers (small minority).
I thought that double dippers were just a niche market.
Sales of SE may have been high, but most were probably sold to people who didn't already own them.

Any studies/links on double dipping?