DVD will die the same time BD does and for the same reason, whatever that may be.

Poster who said 5-10 years, well thats just wrong.

If anything, the backward compability of Blu Ray extends the life of DVD for the foreseeable future...I mean at least 10 years...

If BDA really wanted to kill DVD they would have pushed for non-compatibility, but that would have killed Blu Ray. Look at other examples of HD formats that were not backward compatible (i.e. D-VHS)

Kvrdave has it right.

I think most of us are tech-savvy enough to know that technology moves forward.

However, DVD in particular is a nearly perfect delivery mechanism for movies. Small, cheap, durable, easy to use and highly available to the masses. It's the "peak" of that particular chain.

The next step means either going with a new format using similar technology (HD discs) or abandoning the idea of physical media all together. Considering that most people don't care about HD and don't have the desire or technology to download and view their movies, DVDs are in a unique position of not really needing to be improved to survive - at least from a manufacturing standpoint.

I think the reason that CDs are going away in favor of digital downloads is that when you get right down to it, it's easy to download small audio files piecemeal for a minimal price and transfer them to a portable device for play in your car, on the street or on your home stereo.

To do the same with full-resolution video (not to mention HD content) right now requires clearing a LOT of hurdles. It's expensive, it's storage-heavy, it's slow and it's flaky.

I don't think I'll ever be in a position to prefer downloading movies over physical discs, unless I could have the same experience - figure 2 minutes from when I decide to watch a movie to when it comes up on the screen. Audio downloads are almost to this point. I can easily find, download and transfer a full album within 10 minutes of deciding I want it.

Until I can do the same with movies, I'm just not interested. And I think that point is easily 10-15 years away.

The only thing intriguing to me is the idea of doing my Netflix rentals as downloads. If I could come home and see that the next two movies in my queue are sitting on a hard drive waiting for me to watch, that would be worth something to me. But as for my personal collection, I think I'll be a "physical media" guy for a long time to come and DVDs are the best way to do that for the foreseeable future.

I tend to agree with this.

DVD is to Movies as CD is to Music. SACD, DVD-Audio, and other formats couldn't kill CDs. Some 20 years after the introduction of CDs, they are still around, although music downloads have made a big dent in CD sales. In the future, when movie downloads become as easy as downloading mp3s now (when gigabit connections and 100 terabyte hard drives become the norm), then that will make a big dent on DVDs.

Once HD DVDs cease to be made, I will return to SD discs because I can't afford a BD player. It's as simple as that, and I've made my peace with it.

It will be awhile to be sure

When digital distribution becomes quick and affordable. Movies/TVshows will go the way music has been going.

Either way, it's not like DVD is just going to disappear over night. Look how long VHS stuck around after DVD became the preferred, widely accepted format. Look how long casette tapes stuck around after CDs became the preferred, widely accepted format.

Something bigger, better and newer will come along, and DVDs will still cling for a while - until something else newer, bigger and better comes along.

Blu Ray (or any other Hi Def DVD format) will not be the death of standard DVD. I don't think it will ever really begin to compete with standard DVD.

The analog signals aren't keeping the discs alive.

My guess is DVD will be the main format for at least five years and be ubiquitous for another decade or so.

One thing to keep in mind is that we are damn near close to releasing all the "major" movies that are going to be released on DVD. All the big titles have been released and there's only a small handful that mostly collectors would want to get. So we're moving more towards a new release business model for DVDs. Or at least one where new releases will capture a higher and higher dollar share of the market.

DVD will 'die' when I have to replace :

- the DVD / HDD recorder in the lounge room,
- the DVD player in my kitchen,
- the DVD player in my bedroom (and Xbox there as well),
- the 4 DVD burner / drives in my PC boxes,
- my DVD burner in my laptop,
- my DVD player in my work PC.

And all those blank DVDs aren't being produced that allow me to make backup copies.


Those 'blinkered' few that believe that Bluray or HDM will take over from DVD only need to look at the CD (as mentioned by many others). Its been with us for 26 yrs (since 1982) and have evolved into various formats - but has remained the same.

One thing about the recent Warner / Blu-ray decision : is this the first time that Sony has 'won' a format war ?

- and can we ever look forward to Sony selling 'licences' to those cheaper brands for Blu-ray ?? (I can't see it happening !!)

The CD has stuck around because it got to that threshold of being good enough, such that higher-resolution formats weren't much different (multichannel aside, which most don't care about). The technology of presenting music is just further along. It's a much easier medium to get right, since they only have to do sound, not picture and sound.

On the other hand, a DVD is a relatively poor representation of a film, and HD is a significant improvement. Most people could probably pick out the HD version of a film over the SD version, while they would be hard-pressed to do the same with CD and SACD/DVD-Audio. Only with HD does it get to that point where diminishing returns are evident. For that reason, I don't think video formats higher than HD will take off.

The masses may see it otherwise, and think DVD is analogous to CD, but I just don't see it that way. I do think DVD will be around for quite a while. Many people just don't care about the difference.

Yes.

This might be a silly reason for why I think SD DVDs won't die, or go away because of Blu-Ray disc.

I'm not an idiot (at least I don't think I'm one), but when players need new firmware upgrades and internet, I think it's a safe bet that Blu-Ray won't be outselling DVD, anytime soon.

I guess I'm just a simpleton, but I just want to play the f**king movie!

Well, it's worth noting that game consoles these days get firmware updates, yet they still sell well.

Then again, that probably doesn't matter since games are in their own universe, magically immune to concerns about format wars, retailer complaints about shelf space, and consumer confusion.

Actually, the upconverted DVD looks so good that the masses cannot tell the difference between an upconverted DVD and HD, especially on TVs 32" and smaller. And the majority of the TVs sold today (not counting the millions that are already in the homes) are still 32" or smaller.

Some may consider PS1 and PS2 a "format." Much like BD, it hassoftware that will only play in certain players. Of course it is not a sperate new medium like BD because the software was packaged on DVDs. Take your pick, I can see both arguments as valid.

I don't think this can be stressed enough. Once you show even the technophobic person how to use a DVD player, who's controls are similar to that of the ubiquitous VCR, they are in business.

HD DVD was terrible about constantly updating players etc just to get a movie to play through. I don't own BD but I read the firmware update threads to keep up and it seems that they get updates just as, if not more frequently (albeit without the annoying HD DVD lock-ups).

The average user, not our average user, will have too much trouble with this.

This is the main reason I steered everyone that was interested in HDM away from it this Christmas. I don't want to be paying housecalls to everyone when they can't play a disc.

So you're going back to lower quality? Save up for a player.

Really? When? How much will downloads cost? Will we pay on every viewing? How long will a download take? What if everyone on my block is downloading a 2 hour movie at the same time, how long will that take? What if my hard drive fails?

What's Best Buy and Walmart going to use as loss leaders to get people into stores?

I believe most discs contain an insert stating a firmware update may need to happen and are directed to a website to check. People still update computers don't they?

Actually, most do not. I am in IT and I can attest to this being a fact.

What if there is no internet connection? Most people don't have their DVD players hooked up to the web.

These are not video game consoles or computers. They are toasters, if you want to replace DVD. Plug it in and go.

Burn to disc, just like I do. If a person can read, they can update firmware via disc.

Do you have to burn updates for your microwave? Your TV? Your car?

In order for the masses to accept it it has to be easy to use and just work as advertised.

DVD was standard before it came out. BD needs to pick a standard now and stay with it to cut down on confusion. I am not saying that they should never add new options via firmware, but every disc should be fully playable in every deck without doning any updates, if they want to get past the tech crowd.

How many people do you know that have 4 remotes because they can't be bothered to "program" a universal $10 remote? How about people who don't set the clocks on their appliances?

Not by choice, trust me. But the BD players are way out of my price range presently, so unless these fall below $200 (which I'd gladly pay), I'll have to resort to SD discs.

I wouldn't count those because they were merely the market leaders; they didn't quite dominate the market. The closest thing we've had to that in videogames was Nintendo's NES or their Game Boy.

CD might be a good example, although that was with Philips.