Nielson/Videoscan Sales Ratio
10-26-07 | 02:48 PM
#1
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
Nielson/Videoscan Sales Ratio
This past week ended up as:
51:49
Last week:
71:29
So, by that conclusion...
with only one major title, HD DVD gained 20%.
Not trying to be FUD'dy... just looking at the ratio from a different angle...
51:49
Last week:
71:29
So, by that conclusion...
with only one major title, HD DVD gained 20%.
Not trying to be FUD'dy... just looking at the ratio from a different angle...
10-26-07 | 04:07 PM
#3
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I don't mean to start a flame war, but its obvious that Blu_Ray went on a massive B1G1 free sale in order to prevent serious damage to their percentage share..
Not a bad thing for us (or at least consumers-because i don't own a Blu Ray player yet) - I guess thats good for consumers and movie lovers because prices were cheap...however I would like to see the actual numbers of units sold in previous weeks and not just percentages.
Not a bad thing for us (or at least consumers-because i don't own a Blu Ray player yet) - I guess thats good for consumers and movie lovers because prices were cheap...however I would like to see the actual numbers of units sold in previous weeks and not just percentages.
10-26-07 | 04:18 PM
#4
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by chanster
I don't mean to start a flame war, but its obvious that Blu_Ray went on a massive B1G1 free sale in order to prevent serious damage to their percentage share..
Not a bad thing for us (or at least consumers-because i don't own a Blu Ray player yet) - I guess thats good for consumers and movie lovers because prices were cheap...however I would like to see the actual numbers of units sold in previous weeks and not just percentages.
Not a bad thing for us (or at least consumers-because i don't own a Blu Ray player yet) - I guess thats good for consumers and movie lovers because prices were cheap...however I would like to see the actual numbers of units sold in previous weeks and not just percentages.
I'd also like to see actual numbers by titles.
BONUS: It'd be cool to see how many units were sold via B1G1.
I hope both sides keep up with sales as well as blockbuster releases. Can't wait for HD DVD and Blu-ray movies to get down to $15~$20 per title.
10-26-07 | 04:33 PM
#6
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
I'm trying to do a bit more math (bored at work...) and I got to thinking about market share (meaning, actual money spent, not 'units sold')
Let's say there were 200,000 HD DVDs sold between 10/14 and 10/21 (180,000 Transformers, 20,000 'other')
That would mean there were roughly 208,200 BD's sold (based on the 51:49 ratio provided)
Being conservative, I'll say HALF of the BD sales were due to B1G1 sales.
Meaning, 104,100 were sold at full price, and 104,100 were sold at half price (2 @ 50% is essentially equal to B1G1, assuming the items were prices similarly)
Average prices: I'll say that the average SELLING price (before B1G1 discount) is $25.00 for both formats (assuming very few 'box sets' were sold)
208,200 BD units = (104,100 @ $25.00) + (104,100 @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
200,000 HD units = 200,000 @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
That's a 5:4 lead for HD DVD.
I accept that my 'estimates' are not 100% accurate (there could have been more/less B1G1 purchases).
The BDA has emphasized Market Share regarding stand-alone players, so I just thought I'd work out some estimates regarding HDM Software for this week.
Interesting what a little 'spin' can do.
Let's say there were 200,000 HD DVDs sold between 10/14 and 10/21 (180,000 Transformers, 20,000 'other')
That would mean there were roughly 208,200 BD's sold (based on the 51:49 ratio provided)
Being conservative, I'll say HALF of the BD sales were due to B1G1 sales.
Meaning, 104,100 were sold at full price, and 104,100 were sold at half price (2 @ 50% is essentially equal to B1G1, assuming the items were prices similarly)
Average prices: I'll say that the average SELLING price (before B1G1 discount) is $25.00 for both formats (assuming very few 'box sets' were sold)
208,200 BD units = (104,100 @ $25.00) + (104,100 @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
200,000 HD units = 200,000 @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
That's a 5:4 lead for HD DVD.
I accept that my 'estimates' are not 100% accurate (there could have been more/less B1G1 purchases).
The BDA has emphasized Market Share regarding stand-alone players, so I just thought I'd work out some estimates regarding HDM Software for this week.
Interesting what a little 'spin' can do.
10-26-07 | 04:34 PM
#7
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by The Bus
(Xformers sold ~190k)
that means if Transformers sold 190,000 copies, Pirates 2 sold 17993?
10-26-07 | 04:45 PM
#8
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Actually, I believe Transformers sold around 115,000 but probably shipped 190,000.
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=11439
If you don't know who Home Media Magazine is, there the ones who publish the Nielsen ratings.
Blu-ray Maintains Edge Despite 'Tranformers'
Posted: October 25, 2007
Blu-ray Disc maintains its edge in the format war with rival next-gen contender HD DVD, with Blu-ray titles outselling HD DVD titles by a margin of almost two to one in the first nine months of this year.
According to a study by Home Media Magazine’s market research department, consumers bought 2.6 million Blu-ray Discs this year through Sept. 30, and just 1.4 million HD DVD discs.
Blu-ray Disc titles began outselling HD DVD titles early in the year and have consistently maintained an edge, week after week. Even Paramount Home Entertainment’s release of the DreamWorks theatrical blockbuster Transformers exclusively on the HD DVD format didn’t tip the scale last week. Though there was no hot new Blu-ray Disc release, consumers continued to buy more Blu-ray Discs than HD DVDs for the week ended Oct. 21, albeit by a slim 51% to 49% edge. Paramount says Transformers sold 190,000 units its first week in stores, but Home Media Magazine market research and studio estimates puts the actual number of units that sold through to consumers closer to 115,000.
HD DVD backers expect to see sales pick up as the fourth quarter progresses, particularly now that Paramount and DreamWorks, which previously supported both high-definition optical disc formats, announced it would henceforth release titles only in the HD DVD format.
Most analysts still see the format war as too close to call and predict both formats will continue to co-exist as the audience for high-definition discs continues to increase, growth that likely would occur faster if there was only one format.
Blu-ray Disc continues to enjoy the lion’s share of studio and consumer electronics manufacturer support. Among the six major studios, four support Blu-ray, three of them exclusively: Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainnment and Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment. Warner Home Video releases titles in both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD, while Universal Studios Home Entertainment and now Paramount are exclusively in the HD DVD camp.
Posted: October 25, 2007
Blu-ray Disc maintains its edge in the format war with rival next-gen contender HD DVD, with Blu-ray titles outselling HD DVD titles by a margin of almost two to one in the first nine months of this year.
According to a study by Home Media Magazine’s market research department, consumers bought 2.6 million Blu-ray Discs this year through Sept. 30, and just 1.4 million HD DVD discs.
Blu-ray Disc titles began outselling HD DVD titles early in the year and have consistently maintained an edge, week after week. Even Paramount Home Entertainment’s release of the DreamWorks theatrical blockbuster Transformers exclusively on the HD DVD format didn’t tip the scale last week. Though there was no hot new Blu-ray Disc release, consumers continued to buy more Blu-ray Discs than HD DVDs for the week ended Oct. 21, albeit by a slim 51% to 49% edge. Paramount says Transformers sold 190,000 units its first week in stores, but Home Media Magazine market research and studio estimates puts the actual number of units that sold through to consumers closer to 115,000.
HD DVD backers expect to see sales pick up as the fourth quarter progresses, particularly now that Paramount and DreamWorks, which previously supported both high-definition optical disc formats, announced it would henceforth release titles only in the HD DVD format.
Most analysts still see the format war as too close to call and predict both formats will continue to co-exist as the audience for high-definition discs continues to increase, growth that likely would occur faster if there was only one format.
Blu-ray Disc continues to enjoy the lion’s share of studio and consumer electronics manufacturer support. Among the six major studios, four support Blu-ray, three of them exclusively: Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainnment and Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment. Warner Home Video releases titles in both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD, while Universal Studios Home Entertainment and now Paramount are exclusively in the HD DVD camp.
If you don't know who Home Media Magazine is, there the ones who publish the Nielsen ratings.
10-26-07 | 04:45 PM
#9
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I don't understand the index number...
Its obvious that Blu-Ray's fire sale last week achieved its purpose - I would be interested to see what happens this week to the HD DVD fire sale with the XBOX attachment at Best Buy does too.
Its obvious that Blu-Ray's fire sale last week achieved its purpose - I would be interested to see what happens this week to the HD DVD fire sale with the XBOX attachment at Best Buy does too.
Last edited by chanster; 10-26-07 at 04:48 PM.
10-26-07 | 04:50 PM
#10
DVD Talk Legend
Man this far in and the sales are still pathetic for both formats. If players sales don't really jump this holiday season I have to wonder if both formats will be completely dead in the water by next year.
10-26-07 | 04:59 PM
#11
Banned by request
I don't have the numbers on this, but I recall someone saying that HD/BD adoption rates have been much higher than the initial adoption rates of DVD when it first came out.
10-26-07 | 05:00 PM
#12
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
Furthermore (I hope no one starts to hate me now...)
Let's assume each B1G1 customer only bought ONE pair of discs.
And, for the sake of argument, I'll calculate an estimated average FINAL cost of discs sold.
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50
104,100 BD units sold at normal price (one per customer = 104,100 customers)
104,100 BD units sold at 50% (two per customer = 52050 customers)
Total BD customers= 156,150
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00
200,000 units (one per customer)
Total HD customers= 200,000
That means, (assuming each BD customer only walked away with only one pair of movies...)
There were 7 BD customers for every 9 HD customers
156,150 customers were willing to buy BDs at an average price of $18.50
200,000 customers were willing to buy HDs at an average price of $25.00
I should work for the HD DVD PRG...
Let's assume each B1G1 customer only bought ONE pair of discs.
And, for the sake of argument, I'll calculate an estimated average FINAL cost of discs sold.
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50
104,100 BD units sold at normal price (one per customer = 104,100 customers)
104,100 BD units sold at 50% (two per customer = 52050 customers)
Total BD customers= 156,150
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00
200,000 units (one per customer)
Total HD customers= 200,000
That means, (assuming each BD customer only walked away with only one pair of movies...)
There were 7 BD customers for every 9 HD customers
156,150 customers were willing to buy BDs at an average price of $18.50
200,000 customers were willing to buy HDs at an average price of $25.00
I should work for the HD DVD PRG...
10-26-07 | 05:07 PM
#13
DVD Talk Legend
I personally bought Transformers and 6 Buena Vista BD's last week, but none of them were discs in the Top 10 - I already had all of those.
I can't say I'm surprised A Mighty Heart, Paramount's other HD DVD exclusive disc on 10/16, didn't even show up on the list. While it was a pretty good film, I rented instead of bought it. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't even sell 1000 copies on HD DVD.
I can't say I'm surprised A Mighty Heart, Paramount's other HD DVD exclusive disc on 10/16, didn't even show up on the list. While it was a pretty good film, I rented instead of bought it. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't even sell 1000 copies on HD DVD.
10-26-07 | 08:26 PM
#14
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by SomethingMore
Just so I understand...
that means if Transformers sold 190,000 copies, Pirates 2 sold 17993?
that means if Transformers sold 190,000 copies, Pirates 2 sold 17993?
From Engadget HD:
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/26...nding-october/
10-26-07 | 08:35 PM
#15
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
so,
For every 10,000 Transformers, there were 947 Pirates.
edit: makes sense for a D&D release vs. catalog, of course.
For every 10,000 Transformers, there were 947 Pirates.
edit: makes sense for a D&D release vs. catalog, of course.
10-26-07 | 08:59 PM
#16
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by SomethingMore
Furthermore (I hope no one starts to hate me now...)
Let's assume each B1G1 customer only bought ONE pair of discs.
And, for the sake of argument, I'll calculate an estimated average FINAL cost of discs sold.
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50
104,100 BD units sold at normal price (one per customer = 104,100 customers)
104,100 BD units sold at 50% (two per customer = 52050 customers)
Total BD customers= 156,150
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00
200,000 units (one per customer)
Total HD customers= 200,000
That means, (assuming each BD customer only walked away with only one pair of movies...)
There were 7 BD customers for every 9 HD customers
156,150 customers were willing to buy BDs at an average price of $18.50
200,000 customers were willing to buy HDs at an average price of $25.00
I should work for the HD DVD PRG...
Let's assume each B1G1 customer only bought ONE pair of discs.
And, for the sake of argument, I'll calculate an estimated average FINAL cost of discs sold.
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50
104,100 BD units sold at normal price (one per customer = 104,100 customers)
104,100 BD units sold at 50% (two per customer = 52050 customers)
Total BD customers= 156,150
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00
200,000 units (one per customer)
Total HD customers= 200,000
That means, (assuming each BD customer only walked away with only one pair of movies...)
There were 7 BD customers for every 9 HD customers
156,150 customers were willing to buy BDs at an average price of $18.50
200,000 customers were willing to buy HDs at an average price of $25.00
I should work for the HD DVD PRG...
You were that damn kid in high school that always raised their hands screaming "me! me! me!" when the teacher was doing word problems, weren't you?
10-26-07 | 09:11 PM
#17
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
nah, I was too shy.
I was the kid that never did my homework or worked in class, and my teachers hated me because I aced every test.
I was the kid that never did my homework or worked in class, and my teachers hated me because I aced every test.
10-26-07 | 09:28 PM
#18
DVD Talk Hero
Reports are now surfacing that 115,000 was only an estimate and that Transformers only scanned around 89,000 at P.O.S. to actual consumers according to Nielsen. It's apparent that 190,000 figure Paramount quoted in the initial press release was for shipped units to retailers. The Blu-ray version of 300 still holds the title for most first week sales for a High Def title.
10-26-07 | 09:57 PM
#20
Thread Starter
DVD Talk Hero
PhantomStranger,
even if that's the case, then that means that BD's sale also had a minimal total (ie. in my example above, HDs sold could be 100,000, therefore BDs would be at 104,100).
Still very interesting...
even if that's the case, then that means that BD's sale also had a minimal total (ie. in my example above, HDs sold could be 100,000, therefore BDs would be at 104,100).
Still very interesting...
10-27-07 | 08:43 AM
#21
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Originally Posted by Suprmallet
Source?
Link
All FWIW... looking at that site, I'd say not too much at all.
Last edited by Hammer99; 10-27-07 at 08:45 AM.
10-27-07 | 11:09 AM
#23
DVD Talk Legend
Deadline Hollywood Daily is Nikki Finke's blog. Finke is the one who started the story about Paramount receiving a $150 million payoff to drop Blu-ray.
I'm not making any judgements here, just pointing out who the source is. I think the tone of the article speaks for itself.
I'm not making any judgements here, just pointing out who the source is. I think the tone of the article speaks for itself.
Last edited by Josh Z; 10-27-07 at 11:21 AM.
10-27-07 | 11:48 AM
#24
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Harry Lime
Actually, I believe Transformers sold around 115,000 but probably shipped 190,000.
10-27-07 | 11:55 AM
#25
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by Maxflier
So Nielsen (who only counts sales from some retailers and not others) would know better than Paramount how many copies of Paramounts movie were sold?