That would be a nice trend if the Blu-ray studios countered a big Paramount day-and-date release with a B1G1 sale. Is Shrek the Third up next?


Now if we can only get HD-DVD studios to do the same for Blu-ray's big titles.

Amen. Other than the brief CC glitch last week & that one-time Amazon 3-for-2 sale, it seems that the only way to get any really great deals on HD DVDs is by buying a player. I would LOVE to see a Universal BOGO deal on Amazon this coming week to counter Spidey-3!

I went ahead and changed my calculations so the variables are represented by specific letters (as opposed to estimating what they should be...)

I also created a "Sales Ratio Calculator" in Excel. Go ahead and try it out! I only ask that you avoid changing quantities in the greyed-out cells, as you will end up removing the formulas.

What I found most interesting was that if you leave the 51:49 sales ratio as is, and change the % of B1G1 BD sales to 8%, HD DVD STILL has more potential customers for that specific week!

Sales Calculations.zip

You're taking this WAY too seriously.

The fact is: Even with a huge exclusive day and date release like Transformers, BD STILL outsold HD-DVD.

Sorry, no spin needed.

The fact is: 2for1 sales sell more discs than a single huge exclusive d&d.

Got it HD folks? Where the hell are our 2 for 1 sales!!

the CC deal was specifically NOT a 2-for-1 sale. It was 50% off which means both skus counted as 'sold'.

It is really amusing that a format with an overwhelming majority of capable players out there in homes, as well as dominant studio and CE support feels it has to go to these lengths (every two months apparently) to continually nurse the perception that it is way out in front of the pack.

Seeing as Blu-ray has sold..

2 to 1 in America up to last week (but you can bet it will be back up with Spiderman coming)
4 to 1 in Europe
and
9 to 1 in Japan

It sure as hell is way out in front.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=547
http://formatwarcentral.com/index.ph...apan-up-to-91/

These ratios have been debunked many times over. A 2:1 sales ratio only sounds impressive until you realize just how small the sales volumes on both formats really are. Selling 2,000 copies of a title on one format compared to 1,000 copies on the other isn't a commanding lead. It's just a sad, bitter disappointment for both sides.

So what does that say about the losing side? At one point, there will be only one format IMHO, and it wont be the one selling 50% of the other format.

downplayed is probably a more appropriate word than debunked. the significance of sales ratios seems more significant to those whose format is doing well, and less important to those whose format is being beaten. this may or may not be a coincidence.

Not exactly.

Let A = Probability that one side will win out.
Let B = Probability that HD/BD will both "fail" a la LD.

B >>> A

I'm not saying that HD/BD will both fail. Only that right now, the HD discs are not selling and this is a MUCH, MUCH, MUCH BIGGER concern than whether BD or HD is winning. I really don't care about one side winning. I do care about the HD formats surviving.

I don't think studios are paying too much attention on software sales that aren't really making them any money. They are looking at hardware adoption.

At this point it's like two friends to see who can become a millionaire first. One has $9000 invested, and one has $4500 invested. Sure, one is beating the other, but they are a very, very long way off of hitting their goal.

i know the percentage of home video sales for HD DVD and Blu-ray is abysmal right now compared to DVD. i'm wondering though what would be considered a decent percentage at this point in the life of these formats? i'm sure it is a function of the potential market for hi-def media which is some fraction of the entire home video market. i just wonder what all those numbers are.

Nice post, agreed.

And in both cases, the goal is more likely to be achieved if they worked together?

but then each one will only have $500,000, and they're stuck being half-millionaires.

I'm more interested in the number of HD-DVD vs Bluray players in J6P homes after the end of the 2007 holidays. Currently I believe that Bluray has more installed units due to the PS3, but HD-DVD has shown an early lead in selling the lowest-cost players. At $100-$150 a HD-DVD player is easily more affordable than a $400 Bluray player.

I wonder how things will shake out come January.